Investing General Discussion

Dear thread participants,

Please vote in my poll. If it's what you guys want I'll do it, or vote no and let it go.

Forever Your Servant

Sanrith Descartes said:

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has destroyed $14 billion in wealth over the past decade, Morningstar says

"These funds managed to lose value for shareholders even during a generally bullish market," Morningstar analyst Amy Arnott said.

finance.yahoo.com

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I hate that my play on a small caps counter trend move would likely correspond with arkk performance.

I’m still holding a quarter million on small caps and in the last five months so far it 10% underperforming big tech , yet still remains in a healthy configuration. At some point the long term averages are going to come and give price a poke and it will have to shit or get off the pot.

I’m still confident given the length of its confinement that the move could be explosive. I would still expect that move to be a rotation qqq down a few percent iwm up 3% kind of days .

Still holding Ui but up almost 30-40% so quickly has me eyeing the exit .
Sitting on nice gains in Apple Not looking to sell.

Snow and sbux are my red positions both only around 15-20k invested so I’m not too concerned with that but neither chart looks that great . Sbux from a day trader time frame shows some life off this low . At this point my expectations for both are currently poor .

Sonfar this year more active strategies would have been more fruitful but also more time consuming , I really do dislike low volatility markets, I can’t beat the market with a low vix so not much to do but be patient

One of my goals this year was to reduce the tax bite and that requires some changes to behavior that make a little cautious about changing things that have worked for me .

Longs : spy rps iwm ijs aapl goog snow sbux dis ui low qqq fbtc xlv xlf xle amzn c tsla

It didn't need that report to go from 164 to 193, I would pay little heed to news items they are meaningless. The stock wants to test 200 what excuse we assign to that is irrelevant. THe next consideration point for this trade is at the ATH. It will be a horse out of the barn for a bit if it can move away from the previous high but I'm not convinced its ready to do that.

This trade has been a perfect example of what I've talked about over and over. Go back and look at what was being said when I bought it. Sentiment thats it. This is not a 20% move because some earnings report result but because the weak hands were done selling. Same can be said for the $50 move in TSLA . I'll never understand people short term trading on fundamentals.

Trying to understand the current emotions is far more critical to short term returns than understanding cash flows.

Sanrith Descartes said:

On this I would disagree because I see these news items are being one of a number of variables that pushes sentiment. Are people seeing it on Bloomberg, seeing it get talked about on social media and CNBC and thinking "Apple is rebounding in China, time to buy"?

Now if you are saying this stuff doesn't impact institutional investor sentiment, then that I can get behind. But I think it can and does impact retail investors to a degree.

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Seems logical but I don't think humans tend to handle emotions in that way. It's a cart and a horse argument. When I'm in good spirits I put less weight on the negative, when I'm in bad spirits I put more weight on the negative, and vice versa. Now think about the markets behavior, when it's going up people will say "It's ignoring the bad news!" when the markets mood is sour the bad news suddenly matters again. It's why things seem to ebb and flow in what "Moves markets" The sentiment is the driver not the news. The sentiment determines how we will process the news.

When I"m thinking of selling I will find reinforcement for that position, when I would like to buy I pay attention to things that reinforce it, it's not the other way around. So when you say "stock drops by 10% because of X" that X is never the thing you think it is, that means people wanted to sell and so they did. These things are not definitive absolutes but we have to choose and weigh our information. And the sentiment will always be the larger driver. I harp on this issue because it's the magical key that many people never fully comes to grip with, it's the missing perspective and without things just often don't make sense.

The move in NVDA is really one for the record books, maybe it doesn't stop until it passes MSFT and AAPL. Sure stocks have had big runs before but nothing on this scale of market cap gain. TSLA 2020 and 2021 was big , but compared to this it wasn't even half the move.