Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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So I have been spending the bulk of this week looking for new acquisitions. End of the day, I came up empty. A combination of either I already own it, I refuse to own it, the valuation is just too high. The more I dig into the S&P, the more I see how its like an adage of the old saying 20% of the people do 80% of the work. Instead its 5% of the S&P carry the other 95%. If you ever deep dive into the components of the index, there is some real shit there and lots of it.
So now I am starting to think in terms of 2025. A Trump administration doing whatever it can to cut regulation. Who benefits? Big oil? Upstream partners? New housing construction? Big banks/Wall Street?
Who are the big losers gonna be? Big Parma? Big Ag?
So now I am starting to think in terms of 2025. A Trump administration doing whatever it can to cut regulation. Who benefits? Big oil? Upstream partners? New housing construction? Big banks/Wall Street?
Who are the big losers gonna be? Big Parma? Big Ag?
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Blazin
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This is the sum of the parts argument for google. Obviously can argue with some of the valuations but even taking a more pessimistic view you start to see there is a good bit of potential value inside google than it's current share price shows.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Waymo is the hardest to estimate. I used to give Google the benefit of the doubt when they rolled out new stuff, but the abject failure (x2) of their AI product gives me pause that they will ever make Waymo worth anything.
Furry
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Google AI is so annoying to me I have started using other search engines as a default. I really hate the aggressively stupid form of AI they have. If they made a tab where I could ask questions I'd use it now and then, but most of the time I don't want to be bothered by it. Never mind like 9 of the top 10 results being sponsored if you go too vague, and my ad block for some reason not deleting that shit from my eyes.
I'd rather search with Baidu than deal with that crap.
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Blazin
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Good for a listen, its important to understand though this strategy would be no different in principle if it was GME he was buying. I burrow money, I buy thing, thing goes up I borrow more money and thing goes up.
This provides velocity, and it works unless it doesn't. Saylor (rather convincingly) believes it's not going to go down over time and he is acting on that belief. I believe the more bitcoin gets entrenched he is correct. The govt had a chance to strangle this baby in the crib and it didn't. Soon if not already it momentum will be difficult to stop. The danger of this type of leverage traditionally is getting called, forcing asset liquidation in a panic. It pains me that reporters don't focus on that line of questioning. "In what situation could you be forced to sell your bitcoin to meet debt obligations?" Saylor is no dummy and will have an answer for how he plans around that contingency but they don't even bother asking it.
Looking at the premiums on mstr options I think I'm going to do some option selling.
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Khane
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I'm not sure the government actually did have a chance to strangle this baby in the crib. What timeframe/pricepoint would that have occurred at? It's kind of a chicken and egg thing.
Wall Street and institutional investors have been driving this for a long time, so... was the government going to actually fight Wall Street for the first time ever? That's how I see it at least.
Wall Street and institutional investors have been driving this for a long time, so... was the government going to actually fight Wall Street for the first time ever? That's how I see it at least.
Blazin
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Oh
Sanrith Descartes
dont even look at the premiums or you aren't going to be able to help yourself IV30 is at 200+
Sanrith Descartes
dont even look at the premiums or you aren't going to be able to help yourself IV30 is at 200+
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Blazin
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Well clearly they didn't but I think 2018-2019 they could have taken a very strong stance telling WS not to touch it via regulation, they choose to do nothing so WS started putting things in motion while watching the regulators waiting for them to act the more they did the more regulators did nothing.
Would that have killed bitcoin entirely? Probably not but it would have made it's growth much harder.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I keep going back to the short VIX products that worked 100% of the time. Until the day they didn't. The built-in decay meant they always had to go down and thus it couldn't lose. Until it did. And it was fucking spectacular when it imploded.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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There is a lot of moving parts between the leveraged ETFs on MSTR which is itself leveraged and funded by converts buying a highly volatile asset.
The argument against allt hat is "bitcoin can't go down" MSTR alone is buying more bitcoin than is entering the market via miners, and bitcoin holders are hodlers and the more of the float gets absorbed by Saylor and the two major bitcoin ETFs who exactly would be the seller to drive price down?
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Sanrith Descartes
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I am not arguing your logic. I recall Saylor when he was buying it above $30k and it plunged to around $17k. He held the course and avoided the margin calls. I wish everyone holding it nothing but the best. I'm gonna sit it out.
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Tmac
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Loser Araysar
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One thing people dont realize is that Youtube is the #2 search engine worldwide, everyone is conditioned to think its Bing. People dont think about it in that context though. Amazon is #3, btw.
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Rangoth
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Blazin
aint wrong. You can make 1.5% on roughly 42k by selling a put TODAY
Or make about 8% in a week for the put ending on 29th.....8% a week! Of course volatility is a bitch and there is a moderately high chance you end up owning some MSTR, but you can probably sell an ATM call on it for the next week at whatever you paid and either lose it again or make another 8%. Until this bitcoin hype dies down at least.
I jumped in for a single put, figure I can roll 45k for a few weeks
Oh
Hypothetically, what are you thinking? Buying shares and selling ATM calls? OTM cash covered puts?
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