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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I asked Grok 3 to analyze future guidance reports during earnings of S&P 500 companies since 1/1/25. It said that without access to every single earnings call it cant be precise, but of the ones it can access or the ones that have been written about, the prognosis for year 2025 isn't all that bright. Lots of the bigs have downgraded projections or kept them flat.

Make of that what you will.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Happy Birthday Yes GIF


So that was a fun sell. I sold instantly at the open worrying it would take a shit little did I know how big the shit was going to be.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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So my SOUN and SERV experiment. Both stocks have IV30 of north of 100, they are about 50% more volatile than MSTR.

I bought one hundred shares of each.

With SOUN I'm selling covered call contract 10% out of the money weekly.
With SERV I'm selling Covered call contract 10% in the money weekly.

I take the closed trade gain on the calls and use the proceeds to buy shares. This is obviously crazy small dollar amounts and is just a test for building a position this way. The idea is to build a position with house money. It does require that upfront risk though of capital. Either buying shares or selling puts, no way around that. What I want to see is at different IV levels how I can convert that volatility premium into shares over time. So the first stage of the experiment is to see how long it takes to accumulate 100 shares from collected premium.

Week 1 down:
Gained 4.07 shares of SERV and 3.966 of SOUN
1740152413174.png
 
Haus

Haus

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I asked Grok 3 to analyze future guidance reports during earnings of S&P 500 companies since 1/1/25. It said that without access to every single earnings call it cant be precise, but of the ones it can access or the ones that have been written about, the prognosis for year 2025 isn't all that bright. Lots of the bigs have downgraded projections or kept them flat.

Make of that what you will.
Click to expand...
My company is in that bucket. On our most recent earnings call we double beat, but didn't raise guidance at all.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Blazin said:
So my SOUN and SERV experiment. Both stocks have IV30 of north of 100, they are about 50% more volatile than MSTR.

I bought one hundred shares of each.

With SOUN I'm selling covered call contract 10% out of the money weekly.
With SERV I'm selling Covered call contract 10% in the money weekly.

I take the closed trade gain on the calls and use the proceeds to buy shares. This is obviously crazy small dollar amounts and is just a test for building a position this way. The idea is to build a position with house money. It does require that upfront risk though of capital. Either buying shares or selling puts, no way around that. What I want to see is at different IV levels how I can convert that volatility premium into shares over time. So the first stage of the experiment is to see how long it takes to accumulate 100 shares from collected premium.

Week 1 down:
Gained 4.07 shares of SERV and 3.966 of SOUN
View attachment 574916
Click to expand...

I love doing fun stuff like this as well. It's the entire point of my play account.

Do you actively try to manage those calls or do you just let the market gods do whatever and sell puts to get back in? From what I see you are gaining 8-10 shares a week already!
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Rangoth said:
I love doing fun stuff like this as well. It's the entire point of my play account.

Do you actively try to manage those calls or do you just let the market gods do whatever and sell puts to get back in? From what I see you are gaining 8-10 shares a week already!
Click to expand...
For this experiment I'm going to try to keep "management" of it at a minimum. Stonk does what it does.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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SO X trader guy just went to cash, was down another 17% today. Account at 23,606. So i'll have to clear all of this and see what he does next.
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Blazin

Blazin

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Update and he is pretty much going all in on AMZN
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Which kind of sucks because I'm not sure I disagree. Don't agree with all in but AMZN has a shot of bouncing off this level. I've been hands off now on AMZN other than my LT account, it's my biggest trading loss for the month but the flush down to 218 could be an attempt at interim bottom.
 
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Tmac

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Just YOLO'd my first options play.

Bought a put for the 280 strike on March 21st.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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I have NVDA cc's expiring today and earnings next week. If the market is in a shitty mood has me more leaning towards a negative response to earnings. Contemplating selling the calls for next Fri deep in the money ($110s) This just gives some downside protection with a decline. If it pops I would net 140 so capping my gain at this level.

May wait till next week to decide on this not sure yet.

..edit went ahead and did it.
 
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T

Tirant

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MSTR getting killed. Have short puts expiring next week $310 might get assigned for the first time out of 4 of short puts. Kind of surprising with Bitcoin hovering near $97k
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tirant said:
MSTR getting killed. Have short puts expiring next week $310 might get assigned for the first time out of 4 of short puts. Kind of surprising with Bitcoin hovering near $97k
Click to expand...
See above I closed them, when you enter a trade like this do you manage it or what happens happens?
 
T

Tirant

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I didn’t have any stops in place, for the MSTR put strategy I usually close it early depending on what Bitcoin is doing. In this case I’m holding because Bitcoin is flat and seems like overall market pressure is pushing it down. The chart has me second guessing that though.

Edit: the puts are right near where I sold them last week, so may just close and roll out further at a lower strike.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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HYG says Credit spreads don't give a hoot

At some level on the market credit spreads will suddenly care if the decline is driven by real economic concern. Right now this says even the risky companies are A okay. I just can't overly bearish until this thing breaks. THis does not align very well with IWM weakness, which is currently about 12% off the high.
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IWM daily

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Falstaff

Falstaff

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I asked Grok 3 to analyze future guidance reports during earnings of S&P 500 companies since 1/1/25. It said that without access to every single earnings call it cant be precise, but of the ones it can access or the ones that have been written about, the prognosis for year 2025 isn't all that bright. Lots of the bigs have downgraded projections or kept them flat.

Make of that what you will.
Click to expand...
lol Grok

1740164313886.png
 
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