Investing General Discussion

Futures green again for now

Trump just dropped another tariff bomb on Canada.

10:02 (CA) US Pres Trump: Instructed Commerce Sec Lutnick to add additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum exported from Canada to US to go into effect tomorrow morning (March 12th) [Doubles tariffs to 50%]; Threatens more tariffs that would shut down the Canada auto industry - Truth Social post - "Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to ad an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th. Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada. If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA! Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection. We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY??? This cannot continue. The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, “O Canada,” will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!" - Source TradeTheNews.com

Picked up some Nvidia, Amazon, and MSFT in my IRA this AM.

My position is that we have been staving off a true recession for over a year. The numbers were inflated and the market manipulated to keep things afloat for Biden.
However the correction was likely to come late 25-mid 26 by my estimates. The tariffs are driving fears which might accellerate that timeframe. It's a coin-flip right now.
Either we recover to new highs and then see a drop later - or we take the hit now and start recovery.

My money is on taking the hit now but I am prepared either way. I'm normally bullish but I have been expecting a bear market for a long time now.

Tredge said:

My position is that we have been staving off a true recession for over a year. The numbers were inflated and the market manipulated to keep things afloat for Biden.
However the correction was likely to come late 25-mid 26 by my estimates. The tariffs are driving fears which might accellerate that timeframe. It's a coin-flip right now.
Either we recover to new highs and then see a drop later - or we take the hit now and start recovery.

My money is on taking the hit now but I am prepared either way. I'm normally bullish but I have been expecting a bear market for a long time now.

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We already had a recession 2 years ago. They just changed the definition from two negative quarters in a row to...something else?

As far as a bear, we generally average two a decade. We had one in 2020, but it was self inflicted which is the only thing that makes me think the trend for this decade could be wonky and we get maybe three? It also follows the 2010s where we got off without one at all, but then, that followed the massive one in 2008 - 2009.

Gravel said:

We already had a recession 2 years ago. They just changed the definition from two negative quarters in a row to...something else?

As far as a bear, we generally average two a decade. We had one in 2020, but it was self inflicted which is the only thing that makes me think the trend for this decade could be wonky and we get maybe three? It also follows the 2010s where we got off without one at all, but then, that followed the massive one in 2008 - 2009.

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We could easily have one this year but if trump doesn’t take a measured approach. Consumers are freaked out and not spending.

we need rate cuts and disinflationary policies along with regulation cuts and targeted tariffs that spur private sector job creation as we slowly cut back on public sector excess. If it is all slash and burn then a recession is for sure happening

In the last few weeks, the US Dollar has lost 6% vs the Euro and about 4.5% vs the British Pound, which may have been the intention all along (weaker dollar makes imports more expensive for Americans and boosts exports to other countries).

Big Phoenix said:

Can't really look at any corona statistic imo. Last genuine recession was in 08-09.

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Isn't that exactly what I said? I don't know that I can really count the self-inflicted wound of the covid crash as an actual recession. But we did have two quarters of negative GDP in 2022. Which as I said, used to be called a recession.

But yeah, I think many of us said the economy was in the shitter and the Biden administration was just trying to stave off the financial crisis as long as possible in the event Trump won. And Trump is basically exacerbating it with stuff like tariffs, although that band aid needs to be pulled eventually, so may as well do it earlier.

If things remain "as-is", the biggest headwinds will be quickly rising PPI / CPI as tariffs are inflationary. Then we hit Q2 earnings and suddenly everyone is revising lower citing additional material costs / new US labor. I don't think it would take as long as Nov for this to play out to newer lows.

Just my 2c