Investing General Discussion

Haus

Haus

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Falstaff said:
It's not just that though. What happens when Trump in 2 weeks (or less based on his current track record) reverses course on 30, 40, 50, 90% of these tariffs? What incentive does ANY company have to move manufacturing back on-shore?

So its all well and good to want this outcome but I've heard enough people across the political spectrum express this sentiment that I want to know the answer to it.

edit: what Captain Suave said basically.
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This is also true. It's somewhat a variation of the situation with Trump's policies to encourage "drill baby drill" which we won't see really happen unless those policies are made into law. Same with the tariff policy and structure. Congress should find what in them could be legit legal framework and legislate that. Or we accept that it's a bully pulpit tactic for Trump to use and we see where it lands, which means perpetual market uncertainty, which means suppressed markets for the foreseeable future.
 
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Gravel

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Ignoring manufacturing US products in the US, at the very least, there's a much higher likelihood that other countries start dropping their tariffs on the US. That makes things cheaper for us.

It's like the whole pharma thing where we're subsidizing every other country on the planet. US middle class gets fucked, rest of the world benefits. Same thing with NATO and the US ensuring shipping lanes for every country in the world. We shoulder the entire burden.

This is an attempt to get other countries to start pulling their weight where we don't subsidize the entire planet by sacrificing our own prosperity.

It's bizarre to me that no one sees this whatsoever, especially after Canada and Mexico balked almost immediately the last time this was in the news just a few weeks ago.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Ignoring manufacturing US products in the US, at the very least, there's a much higher likelihood that other countries start dropping their tariffs on the US. That makes things cheaper for us.

It's like the whole pharma thing where we're subsidizing every other country on the planet. US middle class gets fucked, rest of the world benefits. Same thing with NATO and the US ensuring shipping lanes for every country in the world. We shoulder the entire burden.

This is an attempt to get other countries to start pulling their weight where we don't subsidize the entire planet by sacrificing our own prosperity.

It's bizarre to me that no one sees this whatsoever, especially after Canada and Mexico balked almost immediately the last time this was in the news just a few weeks ago.
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Most people lack the understanding to see beyond the short term pain. Yes this sucks for us. And we are the strongest economy on the planet. The other countries are going to be absolutely ass ravaged by this. They cannot under any circumstance sustain this for any length of time. They will begin to start folding in short order and it will be a domino effect. Our biggest challenge is dealing with the daily "heartbreaking" stories of how this is hurting "average" Americans from the communist media in our country.
 
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Kirun

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Gravel said:
This is an attempt to get other countries to start pulling their weight where we don't subsidize the entire planet by sacrificing our own prosperity.
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What other countries? China manufactures 30+% of the world's shit. There are no other countries that can "pull their weight".

This is exactly why China helped form BRICS, so they can tell the US to go fuck itself. The best the US can do is not buy their shit, especially if we see an economic decline(which actually drives US companies potentially even further into "poor" countries, because the US consumer is going to be clamoring for cheap shit). So it causes a few hundred million Chinese to die off/go into mega poverty? You think they give a shit? That's easily sellable to their populace with how that country thinks.
 
Khane

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Gravel said:
Ignoring manufacturing US products in the US, at the very least, there's a much higher likelihood that other countries start dropping their tariffs on the US. That makes things cheaper for us.

It's like the whole pharma thing where we're subsidizing every other country on the planet. US middle class gets fucked, rest of the world benefits. Same thing with NATO and the US ensuring shipping lanes for every country in the world. We shoulder the entire burden.

This is an attempt to get other countries to start pulling their weight where we don't subsidize the entire planet by sacrificing our own prosperity.

It's bizarre to me that no one sees this whatsoever, especially after Canada and Mexico balked almost immediately the last time this was in the news just a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

This MIGHT be true if it was tactical in any manner or strategically realistic. It started that way. I expected this administration to use the USA's kings of consumerism powers to strong arm nations that would be hard pressed to suddenly lose income from exports to the USA were consumers here to stop purchasing because of pricing hikes.

That's not what's happening. He's making shit up to throw random numbers at every country he can all at once. This creates an environment whereby countries that wouldn't have had any interest in smaller tactical maneuvers against say... Mexico and Canada, to now take notice, jump in, form coalitions and start using collective bargaining power against us. Which WILL work.

The schoolyard bully can take lunch money from a couple kids at recess every day and all the other kids won't care cuz it isn't them. If the bully starts trying to take from everyone all at once they'll band together and fight back. This behavior can be seen even in children.
 
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Captain Suave

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Kaines said:
Categorically a lie. You can be mad. Just don't make shit up when you obviously have no idea what the fuck you are talking about.
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The numbers aren't "made up", but what was presented as foreign tariff rates against the US just categorically are not. They calculated a ratio of the trade deficit, which is not remotely the same thing regardless of what you call it on a posterboard.

Edit: Also it seems the deficit calculations only included goods, not services.

Trade deficits just mean that American consumers wanted more foreign stuff than the foreign consumers wanted US stuff. This is a sign of relative wealth, not a failure of trade.
 
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Falstaff

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Most people lack the understanding to see beyond the short term pain. Yes this sucks for us. And we are the strongest economy on the planet. The other countries are going to be absolutely ass ravaged by this. They cannot under any circumstance sustain this for any length of time. They will begin to start folding in short order and it will be a domino effect. Our biggest challenge is dealing with the daily "heartbreaking" stories of how this is hurting "average" Americans from the communist media in our country.
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Short term pain is fine but realistically I don't believe the long term gain they are trying to give us. Unless you want to own the libs or play 5D chess and just absolutely make stuff up. For as many sheeple who follow the "communist media in our country" you have just as many people who are going to see some absolute retard on twitter/facebook post about how Vietnam capitulated and Nike is moving manufacturing back onshore and unequivocally believe it, so who gives a shit about that "challenge"? Meanwhile the tariff % that our government attributed to Vietnam isn't even real.
 
Cad

Cad

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Most people lack the understanding to see beyond the short term pain. Yes this sucks for us. And we are the strongest economy on the planet. The other countries are going to be absolutely ass ravaged by this. They cannot under any circumstance sustain this for any length of time. They will begin to start folding in short order and it will be a domino effect. Our biggest challenge is dealing with the daily "heartbreaking" stories of how this is hurting "average" Americans from the communist media in our country.
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I don't know how much we can trust these things, but I looked up what percent of the US economy is based on trade vs domestic activity, and we come in at 27% based on trade.

The other members of the G20 were way more:
United States: 27%
Germany: 100% (exports 50%, imports 50%)
France: 73%
United Kingdom: 70%
Italy: 81%
Canada: 67%
Japan: 46%
China: 38%
India: 49%
Brazil: 39%
Russia: 47% (pre-2022 sanctions; likely lower now)
Mexico: 85%
South Korea: 96%
Australia: 50%
Argentina: 33%
Turkey: 81%
Indonesia: 45%
Saudi Arabia: 61%
South Africa: 65%
European Union (aggregate): 96% (heavily trade-driven due to internal EU trade)

It seems to me that we are a MAJOR outlier in how trade is handled for us, and also it seems like we could be a lot more self-sufficient than the other members of the G20.

Am I interpreting this correctly in that it seems to me that we could survive a trade war much easier than they could because we are a lot less reliant on trade? Certainly not an expert on this so I'm asking, not telling.
 
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Kaines

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Khane said:
Okay, show me.
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Cool.
Captain Suave said:
The numbers aren't "made up", but what was presented as foreign tariff rates against the US just categorically are not. They calculated a ratio of the trade deficit, which is not remotely the same thing regardless of what you call it on a posterboard.

Trade deficits just mean that American consumers wanted more foreign stuff than the foreign consumers wanted US stuff. This is a sign of relative wealth, not a failure of trade.
Click to expand...
There ya go. They aren't just "made up." You can be mad at the math used, but they most certainly are not made up or random.
 
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Kaines

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Khane said:
This is literally what "made up" means
Click to expand...
Cary Elwes Disney Plus GIF by Disney+


Literally, it isn't.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Cad said:
I don't know how much we can trust these things, but I looked up what percent of the US economy is based on trade vs domestic activity, and we come in at 27% based on trade.

The other members of the G20 were way more:
United States: 27%
Germany: 100% (exports 50%, imports 50%)
France: 73%
United Kingdom: 70%
Italy: 81%
Canada: 67%
Japan: 46%
China: 38%
India: 49%
Brazil: 39%
Russia: 47% (pre-2022 sanctions; likely lower now)
Mexico: 85%
South Korea: 96%
Australia: 50%
Argentina: 33%
Turkey: 81%
Indonesia: 45%
Saudi Arabia: 61%
South Africa: 65%
European Union (aggregate): 96% (heavily trade-driven due to internal EU trade)

It seems to me that we are a MAJOR outlier in how trade is handled for us, and also it seems like we could be a lot more self-sufficient than the other members of the G20.

Am I interpreting this correctly in that it seems to me that we could survive a trade war much easier than they could because we are a lot less reliant on trade? Certainly not an expert on this so I'm asking, not telling.
Click to expand...
That is what I was alluding to. Trade wars hurt everyone. No one is immune. The question is who can survive it longer and better. This is America's strength. The longer this lasts, the longer Americans will start buying less shit they don't "need". We aren't going to do without necessities. Our trade partners cannot sustain this war because they need us buying their shit to give them money to buy their necessities.
 
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Cad

Cad

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Sanrith Descartes said:
That is what I was alluding to. Trade wars hurt everyone. No one is immune. The question is who can survive it longer and better. This is America's strength. The longer this lasts, the longer Americans will start buying less shit they don't "need". We aren't going to do without necessities. Our trade partners cannot sustain this war because they need us buying their shit to give them money to buy their necessities.
Click to expand...
It also seems to me to indicate that we aren't nearly as dependent on "cheap chinese shit" as it seems. The other countries seem to import a much more significant fraction of their GDP.
 
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fris

fris

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Sanrith Descartes said:
That is what I was alluding to. Trade wars hurt everyone. No one is immune. The question is who can survive it longer and better. This is America's strength. The longer this lasts, the longer Americans will start buying less shit they don't "need". We aren't going to do without necessities. Our trade partners cannot sustain this war because they need us buying their shit to give them money to buy their necessities.
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This is my view as well. My question, let's that Vietnam as an example, how long before the pain makes them drop their tariffs on our stuff? I can't imagine we import much there, nor would we if they're tariffs dropped significantly. But I suspect our tariffs on their products will be felt very quickly. Product will back up, ships won't come to port, people will stop getting $$ that they spend locally on necessities. Their govt will look at the numbers and think, gee, we could drop tariffs, but really see a change in our imports, and get experts exports back to normal? Ok
 
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Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

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I’m not bright man, help me figure this out. My take home after taxes is roughly 8k a month, $1645 mortgage, $650 car loan, $323 insurance on 4 vehicles, $250 electric $125 water $100 internet and $100 for phone bill. Food for 4 is around $1,000 a month and lets say another $250 for cleaning supplies around the house and shit paper.

I rarely buy shit, last thing I bought was my daughter really wanted a Stanley cup, my entertainment is usually video games that are always digital downloads. What am I buying that’s going to make me feel it in my wallet and if so is it going to be worse than what Biden inflicted on us where I saw everything I listed previously increase, things have been coming down from what I can tell, I’m retarded explain it to me please.
 
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