Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Kirun
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God, I hope so.
I'd love for our company to downsize and cut one of our shifts. We're basically holding onto said shift for no real reason(volume isn't there, at all, and hasn't been for almost a year), other than to make Ops work more than they actually have to and schedule around low-volume(which has become a hiring/morale fiasco, for obvious reasons). So, I hope it keeps crashing to further justify it to the boomers at the top.
Big Phoenix
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Id say theres a lot of rot and bullshit in the stock market/economy.
SPY doubled from precorona high in 5 years.
QQQ has gone up 240% from precorona high in 5 years.
IWM on the other hand only went up 43% from its precorona(summer 2018) high.
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Sanrith Descartes
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So instead of just discussing the downturn, start discussing opportunities. Anyone seeing value? Much like covid, quality stocks are being wrecked along with everything else. What's oversold?
I'm starting to look at big oil and the refiners but not seeing anything to my liking yet. Crude under $60 tonight. Might see some fire sales begin in energy sector.
I'm starting to look at big oil and the refiners but not seeing anything to my liking yet. Crude under $60 tonight. Might see some fire sales begin in energy sector.
Big Phoenix
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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If we're talking about which places will see real fast rebounds I don't think the energy sector will be it. Oil will bottom out, but for the sector to take off from the standpoint of US O&G companies some regulations need to be nuked, and backed up with legislation. Neither of which I see happening fast, maybe not at all.
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Gravel
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Market generally doubles every 7 years. I'm not sure what the point you're making is, outside of the fact that small and medium cap companies have been significantly underperforming.
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Lambourne
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I have some more buys for Shell lined up. Dropped 7.5% on friday which I think was excessive. It didn't really blow up last year like all the tech stuff did.
If you believe Trump's plan is to devalue the dollar further like some do (because that would play into his boost US exports plan) it's a good time to hold Euro or GBP stocks.
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Borzak
Silver Baron of the Realm
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Right up until the tarrif meltdown the energy sector was out performing a number of other sectors for the year. We'll see, the phone is not ringing yet. Normally when the demand for gas drops off sharply my business picks up since they can do more shutdowns for maintenance they normally have put off for some time (some time years). I don't think demand for gas has dropped so who knows.
One customer did ask about steel tarrifs. Almost all the steel I've done forever the contract calls for US rolled steel. However it's a drop in the bucket compared to cars, appliances and other stuff. If tarrifs for Canadian steel hit and stay only so much steel can be rolled in the US currently. I know a number of mills have shut down over the last few decades. Pretty sure they are not quick start up if demand rises. Lot of smaller mini mills now, the one nearest where I work in LA went out of business a few years ago right afer I did all the very large steel duct for the exhaust for the electric arc mill.
One customer did ask about steel tarrifs. Almost all the steel I've done forever the contract calls for US rolled steel. However it's a drop in the bucket compared to cars, appliances and other stuff. If tarrifs for Canadian steel hit and stay only so much steel can be rolled in the US currently. I know a number of mills have shut down over the last few decades. Pretty sure they are not quick start up if demand rises. Lot of smaller mini mills now, the one nearest where I work in LA went out of business a few years ago right afer I did all the very large steel duct for the exhaust for the electric arc mill.
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Jysin
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Honestly, for most of you that aren’t babysitting portfolios, when you get a 20%+ drop in the major ETFs like we have now, you don’t need to go out picking individual names. Grab some SPY maybe a little QQQ if you want more tech exposure and call it a day.
If you’re trying to time some short term gains <1yr horizon, you’re gambling with a ton of macro uncertainty until this tariff war shakes out.
If you’re trying to time some short term gains <1yr horizon, you’re gambling with a ton of macro uncertainty until this tariff war shakes out.
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Fucker
Log Wizard
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Gravel
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It seems like for the past 20 years, the global economy is so intertwined that you can't go to some other market to try to avoid a US bear. In fact, in almost every case I can remember, they all go down but the US slightly out performs everyone else. I don't know what would make anything in Europe more appealing right now.
Trump even said it, everyone's going to feel pain here, but the US is best equipped for it. They're all going to hurt worse than we are.
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TJT
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Institutional investors who have spent billions on the design of trading algorithms that do all of this automatically. This is fine in general but what happens is that all of these models operate under certain assumptions.
When certain value flags occur they do something. This causes an exponential feedback loop as all other algos look for similar signals to do something. When the status quo of assumptions is violated you can't simply call the CEO of JPM to "stop trades" per se as its all automated. There is no one person doing it and there is no one person who knows all of the assumptions designed into the machines.
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ShakyJake
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I was going to start heavily DCA'ing into XLI, XLK, and XLE. But a guy I follow said now isn't the time to buy as we are in a very strong selling channel.
Asshat Foler
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You are literally speaking to me. Thanks for the reminder. I’ve been buying fxaix but maybe SPY would be good for these highly volatile days(?) I long term hold for context.
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Lambourne
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Picked up some Shell at 27.1 this morning after it dropped another 7% after Friday's similar drop. I was never much of a believer in chart astrology but if you like the resistance turns into support sign this seems like a good entry point. Personally I just think it's suffered far too much collateral damage from mass selloffs.
You're not wrong but I would raise a counterpoint. ETFs have surged in popularity over the last few years and as they get sold off, they dump everything, even stocks that aren't necessarily at risk from tariffs/tech bubbles. Might be a good time to pick up some quality for cheap. Not unlike a headhunter when there is a mass layoff somewhere, they try to find the quality that got swept out with the garbage.
You're not wrong but I would raise a counterpoint. ETFs have surged in popularity over the last few years and as they get sold off, they dump everything, even stocks that aren't necessarily at risk from tariffs/tech bubbles. Might be a good time to pick up some quality for cheap. Not unlike a headhunter when there is a mass layoff somewhere, they try to find the quality that got swept out with the garbage.
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