Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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It's funny, I made that post about timing my TSP transfer to Vanguard. Had I pulled the trigger it would've been some amazing accidental market timing. Oh well.
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Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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For day trading quick / scalps, I have used Lightspeed for a few years now. It’s heavy on commissions (which you can get discounts based on volume + negotiate a bit). You get what you pay for though and it’s a pro platform.Jysin think I'm going to switch to futures only for day trading you still using IBKR? I wish Fidelity had futures, I dislike having so many different platforms to deal with.
Having said that, I’ve been finding myself slowly transitioning to swings the last year and using Think or Swim and Fidelity.
Fidelity does have a completely new overhauled Active Trader Pro platform that is in beta, which I haven’t looked at yet.
Yesterday reminded me a lot of the COVID trading heyday and I saw quite a few people bitching and complaining about the “free” platforms glitching and lagging. This is why I was using Lightspeed in the first place.
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Haus
I am Big Balls!
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tugofpeace
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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I use Schwab (thinkorswim) mobile and during that NVDA spike upwards I was trying to close an option on it and the app lagged. Had to restart.. so other brokerages are definitely better suited for this type of trading.
Ao-
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Warren Buffett gained $13 billion amid Wall Street carnage that wiped out trillions
Warren Buffett gained $13 billion amid Wall Street carnage that wiped out trillions
Warren Buffett has done it again. Over the last two days at the US stock markets, investors have lost $5 trillion in investments after Donald Trump announced a slew of tariffs on 184 countries. But not Warren Buffett. In contrast, the Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO has remained in profit...
ground.news
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Flobee
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Looking out a little further than just this week, I can't help but wonder what US stock valuations look like when foreign capital is essentially no longer piling their USD from trade surpluses into them. Don't get me wrong, the Fed is going to print at some point to make up the difference, but I can't imagine we're going to be seeing 30-50 PE ratios moving forward. Going to be a ton of volatility to trade, but I just can't see stonks going higher than they were recently until some massive printing occurs. Something to think about if you're a long term holder.
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Blazin
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I get what your saying but if the dollars aren't going oversees to come back, that doesn't mean they cease to exist. The total liquidity pot is what matters. You can't be a hodler and think we get reduced dollar liquidity.
There is one threat to the S&P and that's less dollars, we still are super duper very much 100% not on a path towards less dollars. There is a guy Lepard or something wrote a bitcoin book and thinks markets are going to crash and is pro bitcoin. The basic lack of understanding of the economics is mind bottling.
The reasons to buy bitcoin is because the S&P is going to 30,000 not 3000. I'm just going to spend the next 10 years repeating myself, the dollar is shit and it's going to get shittier. Yes the dollar is less shit than the euro or the pound or whatever the CCP is pretending is currency but it's a horrible no good store of value. The govts of tomorrow will rob you of your wealth via inflation just like they always have.
The one thing on the horizon that can DELAY this is automation and robotics can have a deflationary effect buying us more time. So people may map it out and say we are fucked by 2035 but major technological change increasing productivity could buy us decades more.
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Blazin
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Additional thought because 930 is taking forever to get here. This is why I'm bearish on the 2030s in addition to major demographic issues. I'm bullish on the tech, the tech is deflationary. So the 2030s will likely put a lot of strain on financial assets as we adjust to a new world. It's not terribly different than the 00s in that the adjustment period to the information age was painful, boom ->consolidate-> boom. I think 2030s will be worse because we won't have 60M millennials this time, we either import 90 iq mud people or we have declining pop and Euro/Korea/Japan/China all have major pop issues far worse than us.
Best not to think about it too much or you'll end up in a doom spiral.
Best not to think about it too much or you'll end up in a doom spiral.
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Flobee
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I pretty much agree with everything you're saying. I just think USD will no longer be reserve asset (likely still reserve currency) and I think a lot of that foreign capital that was piling into US stocks will go into gold and Bitcoin instead.
US treasury and/or Fed are going to float the US market for sure, I'm just questioning the valuations they land at. Treasury secretary has been quite open about this being a Bretton Woods 2.0 situation and he's also been saying gold and Bitcoin are reserve assets. IMO they're trying to be very open about their plan. I'm not dooming, just saying US stocks may not serve the same role they have in the past and part of that shift could be more sane valuations as foreign capital finds a new home.
If you're buying for a long term hold it may just be worth considering that shift and perhaps a different approach (likely including at least gold if not Bitcoin). My 2c
US treasury and/or Fed are going to float the US market for sure, I'm just questioning the valuations they land at. Treasury secretary has been quite open about this being a Bretton Woods 2.0 situation and he's also been saying gold and Bitcoin are reserve assets. IMO they're trying to be very open about their plan. I'm not dooming, just saying US stocks may not serve the same role they have in the past and part of that shift could be more sane valuations as foreign capital finds a new home.
If you're buying for a long term hold it may just be worth considering that shift and perhaps a different approach (likely including at least gold if not Bitcoin). My 2c
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Ask yourself if the world has economic growth while on the gold standard for the answer to that.
Haus
I am Big Balls!
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Time for "Economics with Dr. Haus" :
If the growth only comes from having a debasable fiat currency (i.e. currency inflation), then it's not growth....
Imagine that you produce a loaf of bread every year, that's your GDP. That loaf of bread sells for $1. That's the measurement of your GDP. There are $10 in the whole world (that's the money supply). So your GDP is 10% of the world's GDP.
Next year you still produce a loaf of bread. But the government wants to spend more money on something, so they print 5 more dollars. The global dollar supply is now $15. If your bread is still the same, then it should still be worth 10% of the world's GDP, so you now charge $1.50 for your loaf of bread. Did your bread actually just become more valuable? No. You just diluted what your measure the value of bread in.
That's the golden rule, when you have an asset, what do you value that asset in? That's the real job of currency, and if the currency can be debased, then it's an unstable measure of real value.
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Sanrith Descartes
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