Investing General Discussion

TJT

TJT

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Big Phoenix said:
Ok ok heres some grown up stuff...

www.hardwaretimes.com

Samsung Plans to Become the #1 Android AP Maker by Partnering with AMD and ARM

Samsung is looking to beat rival Qualcomm in an unconventional way: by giving up chip designing and relying on its new-found partners, ARM and AMD while handling just the fabrication part of it. In recent years, the Korean smartphone maker’s SoCs have been repeatedly beaten by Qualcomm’s...
www.hardwaretimes.com www.hardwaretimes.com

This could be huge for AMD in the next year. They have zero presence in the mobile phone space.
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RIDE THAT DICK.

AMD be like:
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I'm tempted to sell my AAPL. Im up about 100%. Maybe get back in if it dips after the split. But i cant find anything I want to put the cash back into. Its like I know cashing out is the right move, but it would just end up sitting as cash, which isnt the right move. <sigh>.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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I feel like this is 1920 and we're all hi-5ing each other because money is forever. My goal has always been to retire on the day I have 25x replacement income saved (currently at ~5), but if stocks do like this, I might as well retire at 15x or so. What's the catch to all this money I'm getting. It's good to have a reminder that most of the dollars I make come from someone else losing them:

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Keep in mind not everyone during the Great Depression was broke. Similar to 2008. If you didn't liquidate, and were even lucky enough to buy a little during, you came out the other side fucking lambo rich.

Edit: Good timing on that ^ post above. You don't "lose" money unless you sell at a loss or the company folds. Bet on the US economy and you'll get rich. I've always thought it was strange to liquidate, because essentially you're arguing that cash is somehow going to be worth more than companies. In the event companies all bankrupt, your cash becomes worthless anyway.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin Blazin when you are selling covered calls, how do you (if you do at all) establish a criteria for closing out early on the expiry or maybe the day before to lock in profit and avoid a black swan event the spikes the price into the money? I usually close out on expiry for a penny or two just be out of it unless it is insanely out of the money. Do you have a certain floor you look at to close out or just ride it to the end of the day?
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Keep in mind not everyone during the Great Depression was broke. Similar to 2008. If you didn't liquidate, and were even lucky enough to buy a little during, you came out the other side fucking lambo rich.

Edit: Good timing on that ^ post above. You don't "lose" money unless you sell at a loss or the company folds. Bet on the US economy and you'll get rich. I've always thought it was strange to liquidate, because essentially you're arguing that cash is somehow going to be worth more than companies. In the event companies all bankrupt, your cash becomes worthless anyway.
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Fear. Fear is the reason they liquidate. That and listening to the talking heads on CNBC. To be fair to them, im sure there are some who are in equities at a point in their life where they cant afford the time to let a major paper loss recover. Those folks have no business in equities but that is another convo entirely.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Fear. Fear is the reason they liquidate. That and listening to the talking heads on CNBC. To be fair to them, im sure there are some who are in equities at a point in their life where they cant afford the time to let a major paper loss recover. Those folks have no business in equities but that is another convo entirely.
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Absolutely. If you need cash, liquidate some of your portfolio. If you're at the point where losing your job means you have to liquidate a $200k+ portfolio though, your risk evaluation is all kinds of fucked up. You never should've been in that scenario to begin with.

Liquidating it at the bottom is essentially a series of bad decisions leading you to the worst possible outcome.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Absolutely. If you need cash, liquidate some of your portfolio. If you're at the point where losing your job means you have to liquidate a $200k+ portfolio though, your risk evaluation is all kinds of fucked up. You never should've been in that scenario to begin with.

Liquidating it at the bottom is essentially a series of bad decisions leading you to the worst possible outcome.
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ps.. This is why trailing stops or even regular stops are your friend.
 
Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Fear. Fear is the reason they liquidate. That and listening to the talking heads on CNBC. To be fair to them, im sure there are some who are in equities at a point in their life where they cant afford the time to let a major paper loss recover. Those folks have no business in equities but that is another convo entirely.
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I think equities are fine at any age, though I'd definitely want to be highly diversified with them in retirement. My plan when I'm in/near retirement is to leave the majority of my money in stocks, but have a block of about 4-5 years expenses in very safe investments and or cash. If things are going good I keep pulling from equities slowly to keep that bank topped off. If shit hits the fan and there's a crash, I can live off my money long enough that things will almost certainly be back on track by the time I need those equities. Worse comes to worse and they don't look like they'll fix in 5 years, I know how to live real cheap and stretch that out.

If you have a plan, I think the risk/reward is worth it. In the short term stocks don't always win, but in 10 year stretches they pretty much always win.
 
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Flobee

Flobee

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Fear. Fear is the reason they liquidate. That and listening to the talking heads on CNBC. To be fair to them, im sure there are some who are in equities at a point in their life where they cant afford the time to let a major paper loss recover. Those folks have no business in equities but that is another convo entirely.
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I sold half of my (fairly small) holdings in April. Changed asset classes and ended up outperforming but I honestly wouldn't do it again. The education was worth what I would have lost for me at least. That being said I do still expect a second leg down, I just didn't understand the time-frame when I sold originally.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Flobee said:
I sold half of my (fairly small) holdings in April. Changed asset classes and ended up outperforming but I honestly wouldn't do it again. The education was worth what I would have lost for me at least. That being said I do still expect a second leg down, I just didn't understand the time-frame when I sold originally.
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It is hard as shit to sit back and tell yourself "its going to be fine" while your portfolio plummets. I started moving into equities too early because I saw it as a nice deep correction. I think my first purchase was in the -15% range. Once I realized the depth of what was happening (ie.. i came to the realization that dumb fuck governors would actually shut down our economy) I started modifying my buying. That being said, by black Monday I was seeing my portfolios down about 30%. It was seriously rough at times not knowing if a bottom was in. I just looked at my spreadsheets to find the best bargains each hour and kept buying. I totally understand normal people getting freaked and selling at the bottom. I manage my Mom's accounts and those conversations with her were painful. Luckily she trusted me and luckily we found a bottom.

I think I might page back and look at this thread back in early/mid March. Those heady days of "limit down on futures!" and "circuit breakers kicked in 1 minute after we opened!" are probably worth a re-read.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Blazin Blazin when you are selling covered calls, how do you (if you do at all) establish a criteria for closing out early on the expiry or maybe the day before to lock in profit and avoid a black swan event the spikes the price into the money? I usually close out on expiry for a penny or two just be out of it unless it is insanely out of the money. Do you have a certain floor you look at to close out or just ride it to the end of the day?
Click to expand...

Depends just how close we are trading to the strike. If the stock fell well below the strike I may close it on Thursday at 0.06 or less. If it's close I usually will wait till late in the day on Friday so that the premium gets sucked out and begins trading at very high delta, I then usually roll it to the next Friday.

Deciding to close at 0.01-0.03 or expire worthless on Friday usually comes down to if I intend to roll it forward. If I'm reselling then I like to get the higher premium selling that new call on the Friday rather than wait for Monday morning. If I let it expire worthless without reselling usually means I don't like the current conditions/level to resell a new one at that time.
 
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Locnar

Locnar

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I just looked at the performance tab in the fidelity tools and wouldn't you know I've basically treaded water this year.

Now in my retirement 401k accounts, which I did NOT touch, and even continued to contribute to as everything went to pot this spring, I am up for the year (its basically all in S/P 500).

I'm going to go with Flobee in saying I don't really regret it, it was good education and I'm still looking towards making up my lost gains when the non-tech stocks I rotated to in March finally break out and do their thing. Do I wish I switched everything to tech back in march? yeah sure, but hindsight is always 20/20. I made my play and broke even, with the potential for more once the magic vaccine (or wtf ever) comes out.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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I sold Feb 11th into bonds and have made about +10% YTD. I have taken a few swing trades along the way, but now sat in 70% cash, 30% bonds. I have no clue where to put the money now. Markets at near ATH, when the fundamentals make the markets more expensive than pre-covid levels? All the while we have massive unemployment and bad economic indicators. I timed the top and completely missed the run back up from the bottom. Honest question: what in the world do I do now?
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
I sold Feb 11th into bonds and have made about +10% YTD. I have taken a few swing trades along the way, but now sat in 70% cash, 30% bonds. I have no clue where to put the money now. Markets at near ATH, when the fundamentals make the markets more expensive than pre-covid levels? All the while we have massive unemployment and bad economic indicators. I timed the top and completely missed the run back up from the bottom. Honest question: what in the world do I do now?
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Its a tough spot to be in. I stick to the answer I usually give. Search out high quality strong balance sheet companies that you want to own long term. Once you have a list, look for pullbacks to make entry points. Set realistic expectations on returns for this year based on how much things have already moved up.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Locnar said:
I just looked at the performance tab in the fidelity tools and wouldn't you know I've basically treaded water this year.

Now in my retirement 401k accounts, which I did NOT touch, and even continued to contribute to as everything went to pot this spring, I am up for the year (its basically all in S/P 500).

I'm going to go with Flobee in saying I don't really regret it, it was good education and I'm still looking towards making up my lost gains when the non-tech stocks I rotated to in March finally break out and do their thing. Do I wish I switched everything to tech back in march? yeah sure, but hindsight is always 20/20. I made my play and broke even, with the potential for more once the magic vaccine (or wtf ever) comes out.
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I would avoid going all in on a single sector (even tech). Balance it with other sectors. Industrials still have some room to move up and tend to move up when money rotates out of tech. Financials are sluggish due to zero interest rates but will eventually make the move as things normalize.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Money flows. This is a 30-day comparison of the XLK and XLI to show how the money can flow from one sector to another. Notice the return over the last 30 days and that Industrials have outperformed tech by over 5%. You can sort of map when tech is down the money is flowing into industrials. This is one of many reasons why sector diversity is important. It is also a good method for tracking dips in the sectors.

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