Investing General Discussion

LachiusTZ said:

This is exactly what someone would say if they were trying to horde all the gold.

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The Hunt brothers approve of this statement.

Sanrith Descartes said:

My 2 cents. What we are experiencing in 2020 is without precedent in modern times. It is a confluence of events. Yes we have had election years before and can look to those for insights. Same with pandemics. And Trade Wars with our biggest trade partner. However, what we haven't had before is them all coming together at the same time. How they will interact together can't be modeled. There is only one constant that has to be applied. Take emotion out of the equation. I am excluding @Blazin from this as he is a full-time trader. its his livelihood. The rest of us should be looking at long term investing views. I am not promoting buying up shit right now, but I am saying hold on to quality. Market timing isn't a viable investment strategy. Data has shown on average people who time the markets end up missing too much of the gain on the recovery vs those who ride it out and hold through the valley.

tldr: If you believe AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, WMT, JPM, HD, etc are going to be here next year and for the next 5 years own them and hold them. If you believe the US economy is going to be here for the next 5 years own the SPY and/or the QQQ. Paying 2k an ounce for gold or buying 10-years paying 0.6% interest a year isn't a viable option in my opinion.

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Yes, the one thing I've learned from the Rona as an almost exclusively long term holder who has never sold anything he's bought until this year is that I need to consider taking profit off the table now and again.

Sanrith Descartes said:

NKLA. Now down 8% premarket. Looks like I am not the only one who thought they are vaporware.

UPDATE: Short seller Hindenburg alleges that electric truck maker Nikola is an 'intricate fraud' in new report

Short seller Hindenburg Research published a report on electric truck maker Nikola Inc. undefined on Thursday, accusing it of being an "intricate fraud"...

www.marketwatch.com

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Shit, did I write that article? Pretty much exactly what I have to say on them. Their claims on what their truck can do are lies.

Went and looked into GM to see what they were bringing to the table in this deal, and I really think GM has its head on right with the battery tech they developed. Everything about it looks good for the right reasons. Surprisingly good.

fris said:

what's y'alls opinion on Softbank manipulating the stock market? seems a bit like cryptocurrency rumors going mainstream.

I like Stephen's channel, he does a good job of dumbing down a lot of finance topics

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Big money tries to make more money all the time. There's not really anything you can do about it, imo.

It's just not usually so hilariously inept, but that's softbank for you.

TJT said:

Yes, the one thing I've learned from the Rona as an almost exclusively long term holder who has never sold anything he's bought until this year is that I need to consider taking profit off the table now and again.

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I do this using weights in my portfolio. I run 5% max per individual stock of my total portfolio and check my allocations quarterly.

fris said:

what's y'alls opinion on Softbank manipulating the stock market? seems a bit like cryptocurrency rumors going mainstream.

I like Stephen's channel, he does a good job of dumbing down a lot of finance topics

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Buying options isnt manipulation, its investing. My take is Softbank got ass-fucked by the WeWork fiasco and was looking for some easy money to fill in the gaping hole.

I swear buying AMZN on dips is like free money.

Brand new SPAC just went public a few minutes ago. SVACU. includes shares and warrants. About 350m market cap. Trading at 10$ per unit. Target is business, healthcare or tech.

using technical levels (as have been discussed a lot in this thread) is a great way to learn about pricing and take emotion out of it. For example, if you decided you wanted to get into AMZN on this pullback using technical support levels its 40 day support level is $3140 and its 100 day support is $3104. It "SHOULD" find some support there and bounce. I would set a limit to buy on one of those two (with how the market is acting I would choose the 100 day) and let it sit. if it hits great and if it stops short and turns around then you miss it. When looking for exits on trailing stops use those same support levels to help you decide how tight to set your stops.

I forgot to mention its moving averages. Its 50 DMA is $3174 which amazingly enough is where it just bounced. This will be its 1st floor of support.

ps.. Market orders are the debil. Don't use them. Use technical levels and set limit orders.

Edit: to show why technical trading works look at this at the close. I mentioned above the 50 DMA for AMZN is $3174. Look at the bounce ($3170.55) and look at the close ($3175.11). Almost to the penny. Start using these free tools friends.

Looks like some platforms are having issues splitting PSTHU into PSTH and PSTHWT. This isnt the first SPAC, I wonder if it has to do with it being the first SPAC with units not priced at $10.

Sanrith Descartes said:

Looks like some platforms are having issues splitting PSTHU into PSTH and PSTHWT. This isnt the first SPAC, I wonder if it has to do with it being the first SPAC with units not priced at $10.

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I want to add on to this since someone might be thinking about trading in warrants for PSTH or some other SPAC post-split. You need to think of warrants like options. The warrants only give you the "right to buy" shares at a designated time. They have a strike price. For PSTH that strike is $23 and for normal SPACS the strike is $11.50. This means the price you pay for the warrant is considered the premium and you need to mentally add it to the strike for the warrant to decide if you want to buy the warrants. If you got the warrants free from the split this doesn't apply as you paid no premium.

The PSTH warrants (PSTHWS) began trading separately today (as did the shares by themselves as PSTH). Only PSTHU (units) includes both shares and free warrants. Back to PSTHWS.. The warrants opened trading at $6 this morning. That means anyone who bought them needs the price of the company PSTH merges with after merger to be $23 (the strike) + $6 (what they paid for the warrant) = $29 dollars to make a profit. IT also means that if this deal goes south and the stock never gets above $23 the warrants are worthless and the $6 per share premium is a total loss. On the other hand... Consider if this catches fire and takes off the warrants act like in-the-money call options. Consider SHLL/Hyliion as an example. Those warrants have a strike price of $11.50, the stock price of SHLL is currently $47.40. Some people bought warrants at under 2$ a share. There is some arbitrage at play since the warrants are exercisable and the merger hasn't been voted on yet. You also need the cash to buy your stock with warrants at the strike.

I hope this explains SPAC warrants. Basically just think of them like call options.

Frenzied Wombat said:

Have 20K to invest today, what should I buy ETF wise?

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TQQQ or QQQ still seems solid.

I'm also looking at ecom ETFs since online retailers already start preparing for holidays in August

IBUY
EBIZ
ONLN

all 3 have practically same performance. They doubled in price since the March plunge.

This is going to be the first Covid Xmas so i doubt brick and mortar retailing will be back to last years level, even if they do lift all restrictions by then.

Frenzied Wombat said:

Have 20K to invest today, what should I buy ETF wise?

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What is your risk tolerance (scale of 1-10).
What is your reward expectation (scale of 1-10) this tends to be negatively correlated to your risk tolerance.
What is your time horizon to not touch the money?