Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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If it hits 19k I think we will have more important things to worry about.
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fris
Vyemm Raider
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slightly changing the subject, but i do hope this down trend continues until just after i get my yearly bonus and can fund this years roth account
my nephew has autism. he's pretty far on the spectrum; 4 years old only just now saying words, but it's just repeating sounds and not using them yet, if that makes sense. he's in a very expensive school, insurance covers about $35k of the $70k a year. safe to assume that he may be dependent on some kind of car his entire life.
I would like to setup a trust and start putting $$ into it. obviously something akin to vtsax or some basic 3 etf portfolio initially, but with the intent that he begins to draw on it, akin to the 4% model where he's drawing a bit less then it's early growth. but instead of the drawing to begin ~65 years old, he would likly begin drawing much earlier, probably his early 20s.
My thought was once he begins to use this to help support his life/needs, i transition the portfolio to some kind of dividend etf like VIG, vanguards aristocrat fund. should be safe to assume that the value of the stocks will grow and he could pull some of the dividends to supplement his monthly expenses. Given that he'll be drawing on this for much longer than most retirement funds, I don't think an uber safe mix that's mostly bonds is a good idea. if there's a recession or slow down, then his <4% draw drops, but he has time to make it to when the economy recovers.
my nephew has autism. he's pretty far on the spectrum; 4 years old only just now saying words, but it's just repeating sounds and not using them yet, if that makes sense. he's in a very expensive school, insurance covers about $35k of the $70k a year. safe to assume that he may be dependent on some kind of car his entire life.
I would like to setup a trust and start putting $$ into it. obviously something akin to vtsax or some basic 3 etf portfolio initially, but with the intent that he begins to draw on it, akin to the 4% model where he's drawing a bit less then it's early growth. but instead of the drawing to begin ~65 years old, he would likly begin drawing much earlier, probably his early 20s.
My thought was once he begins to use this to help support his life/needs, i transition the portfolio to some kind of dividend etf like VIG, vanguards aristocrat fund. should be safe to assume that the value of the stocks will grow and he could pull some of the dividends to supplement his monthly expenses. Given that he'll be drawing on this for much longer than most retirement funds, I don't think an uber safe mix that's mostly bonds is a good idea. if there's a recession or slow down, then his <4% draw drops, but he has time to make it to when the economy recovers.
Blazin
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I put a lot of money to work today, buying when others are selling their retirement accounts has made me a lot of money. Please keep the fear selling posts coming, we'll revisit down the road and see how this played out. I don't know the future, I could end up underwater, but I'm a patient person and willing to take the risk and buying fear has one hell of a track record.
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Furry
🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭
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Put your investment actions here for me to laugh at a month later.
I put all of my money into bonds and entirely safe vehicles in january. I'm up a fraction of a percent since then while the markets are down ~10%.
It'd be a 11% stronger position if I reinvested now, but why blow up good money? My money is still in safe vehicles.
Khane
Got something right about marriage
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I thought we weren't going to have the internet anymore in a month once your prophecies about the coronavirus "mature"?
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Furry
🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭
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I said I didn't expect most utilities to be interrupted. Sure, there will probably be some interruptions in certain areas for some periods, but I expect the internet to mostly remain up for maximum shitposting.
Blazin
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a month? I hope you aren't serious. This is how you make decisions for the future?
Furry
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I'll come back and laugh every day for the next year if ya wish.
My investment strategy has always been maximum contribution, maximum tax avoidance and worry about the details later. Just saw this recession coming like a semi and managed to turn it into the easiest profit ever. I just think its reasonable to ask what positions you are taking and why in an investment thread. Mine are clearly stated, and I think they're superior to putting money into the market over the next month. While my stance will inevitably change at some point, I'll come back and post when and why if you wish.
Blazin
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It is reasonable and I have no issue with sharing. Here is a trade from today for you track along and laugh at if it pleases you.
So I sold 10 SPY contract puts that expire 3/19/2021 with a strike of $260.00 I collected $10,600 in premium if in March of next year SPY is below $260 I will be the new owner of 1,000 SPY shares @ a cost basis of $249.40 ($249,000).
As to the why: Mostly because I'm comfortable with both outcomes. If SPY declines another 20% and stays there for a year I'll be the owner of shares I'm comfortable holding for whatever time necessary until we are at new highs and overbought sufficiently enough for me to want to sell them. So in this outcome I'll make at minimum $90,000 with the unknown being over what period of time. Historically even under dire conditions it could be a few years, and I'm okay with that.
Or we have a V recovery off corona fears and sometime this year go back to the highs, the value of these puts I'm short will fall to pennies and I will be able to either buy to close for a few bucks or leave them to expire worthless. I will have made $10,600, this is an annualized yield of about 4% plus another 1.8-2% I can earn on the cash. Giving me a total return for the year on this money of around 6%.
So now you can see I'm not rooting for you to be wrong, I hope you are right. I'll make more not less. But the far more likely outcome historically is the second scenario. I look forward to you posting your trades. This is not my first rodeo and I have traded through some of the worst this market has to offer, I'm not flipping pennies on RH or over trading some 100,000 401k account. My goal of showing that I make $250,000 individual trades is not to vinen you (and you asked me to), but maybe even show you something new about how to manage your money and risk in a way that results in a very productive investment career.
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Furry
🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭
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That seems a reasonable strategy as long as you didn't leverage it, but it has potential to underperform, but that's a risk of all strategies.
My strategy has always been very basic. At some time in the next 1-4 months or so I'll go from pure cash/bonds to a likely broad-market investment similar to SPY, so I can't object to your choice too much. My original aim was -20% as stated before, but I'm looking at 25-30% now. Once I make the move I'll go back to completely ignoring it for the better part of a decade again.
My strategy has always been very basic. At some time in the next 1-4 months or so I'll go from pure cash/bonds to a likely broad-market investment similar to SPY, so I can't object to your choice too much. My original aim was -20% as stated before, but I'm looking at 25-30% now. Once I make the move I'll go back to completely ignoring it for the better part of a decade again.
Sanrith Descartes
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Though I dont think it was directed at me but I will add in, I went long on a small position of JPM at the 200 DMA, long another small postion on DIS when it busted the bear line, ditto UNH after it broke the 200 DMA, added on to a QQQ long I started yesterday and finally started a small long position on IVV at the 200 DMA. Finally added to a small long on M at about 11% dividend yield. I expect to flip the M at some point and will take the div while I wait. Everything else above is a buy and hold.
Between yesterday and today I put about 25% of my cash to work.
Between yesterday and today I put about 25% of my cash to work.
Blazin
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The buying back in can be the tough part, the market can V so aggressively. It comes down to how much you are able to watch and be aware, and if you miss the price you sold out you can't hesitate and then find yourself out of the market with money that your long term plans require you to be invested.
Blazin
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I also have gone long DIS again (I am often long DIS sold in the 140s most recently). I've also gone long IWM (kinda smallish so far), SPY, and QQQ (heaviest) Mostly new entries via options positions, with strikes still down below this level. Today hitting the 200d sma gets me interested. I'd probably be near full in by SPY 240-250ish. If it dropped further I have a million dollar line of credit secured by RE that I would strongly considering using especially considering where interest rates are at. I take borrowing to invest as kinda of a last straw things would have to be epicly bad for us to get to those kind of levels (pre election ranges)
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Sanrith Descartes
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I an watching LMT. It had such a ramp up the correct draw down isnt hitting it low enough for me to bite. I like it as a long term play not just for the Def angle but it is quietly doing the space thing while SpaceX gets all the press. I just saw their new facility down at the Kennedy Space Ctr.
Sanrith Descartes
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I got limit orders filling I had absolutely no belief would actually fill at those levels today. Its oogly out there.
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Sanrith Descartes
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This is what capitulation looks like. Buyers tried like hell to rally it out but just ran out of gas.