Investing General Discussion

Flobee

Flobee

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Tmac said:
Probably a year.
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So there is some level of counterparty risk here, plus your capital is exposed to crypto markets, but the return may be exactly what you're looking for. A service like BlockFi - Loans backed by your cryptoassets is offering 8.6% apr on cash deposits up to a certain amount. You're not likely to see that kind of return elsewhere (outside of DeFi) and you're not eating a capital gain if your investment goes up.

There are some strictly regulatory and privacy issues I have with Blockfi as a company, but I imagine most won't care about that so its worth considering. Certainly hedges you to some degree against inflation. If you're curious about how they get these kinds of returns look into Bitcoin Contango as an example of the kind of spreads that are being taken advantage of right now in the crypto market. Essentially there is a yield curve being developed and you can get some of that upside.
 
Blazin

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Flobee said:
So there is some level of counterparty risk here, plus your capital is exposed to crypto markets, but the return may be exactly what you're looking for. A service like BlockFi - Loans backed by your cryptoassets is offering 8.6% apr on cash deposits up to a certain amount. You're not likely to see that kind of return elsewhere (outside of DeFi) and you're not eating a capital gain if your investment goes up.

There are some strictly regulatory and privacy issues I have with Blockfi as a company, but I imagine most won't care about that so its worth considering.
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Whatever you do , don't do this. Nobody is paying 8.6% for money when money is currently near free without serious risk.
 
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Flobee

Flobee

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Blazin said:
Whatever you do , don't do this. Nobody is paying 8.6% for money when money is currently near free without serious risk.
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This could potentially be amazing advice. Its also possible you don't understand the market that is developing. The answer is above my financial understanding. I doubt you've done the research but I do respect your opinion. Offering it as an option because it exists and has shown resiliency over the past few years. Definitely DYOR before putting money into something like this for sure

I will lay out the base case for the yield as I understand it though. In a nutshell you have Bitcoin which is annualizing ~200% returns that people are holding and they don't want to sell it. A market develops around collateralized loans to lend the Bitcoin for USD. Bitcoin holders are willing to pay the high APR. There is all sorts of strange financial wizardry involved beyond that which, to Blazin Blazin point is something you should understand before dumping your life savings into.
 
Tmac

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Blazin said:
I would not invest the money in stocks with a 12mo. outlook. There are things that can be done to try to get some return while mitigating risk of a market at an ATH with a 12mo. outlook, such as selling 1 put on SPY that expires in December. It is not a great time right as of this moment even to do that but that can change quickly.
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That makes sense. Cash it is! Keep me in mind though if things change.
 
Rajaah

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Sanrith Descartes said:
SPACs are under assault by short sellers and also a rotation of money out of them and into crypto and of course there is the value rotation going on.
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Not gonna hold you responsible for my decisionmaking or anything, but do you think I'd be better off dumping LAZR the next time it has any kind of bump? If that even happens. I did a post above about all the things I paperhandsed that got better later, and here I am wanting to paperhands something else. I'm just tired of being bummed out every time I look at these stocks that lose money for me, especially when I can put that money elsewhere and make back my losses within a few weeks. How long will LAZR take to make back my losses? Months?

It's just a bummer because the stock looked so good when I got into it, and I got in at a good price too. I thought that was gonna be one of my best stocks.

I'm totally willing to stay in it...if there's a point. Right now it feels like there isn't. Every time I consider cashing out and reappropriating those funds, I go nah, it'll get better, and then a week later I'm down another chunk. It's frustrating, but so it goes if you want to do this stuff. I know Bitcoin was way down for YEARS at a time before rocketing up.

Jackie Treehorn said:
Fuckin’ can’t believe people leaving SPACs for crypto. 😬
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I'm not. Got my BTNB, PSTH, XPOA, and GSAH and they're the only stocks I don't want to dump at the moment. Paper Hands McGee over here
 
Fogel

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Rajaah said:
Not gonna hold you responsible for my decisionmaking or anything, but do you think I'd be better off dumping LAZR the next time it has any kind of bump? If that even happens. I did a post above about all the things I paperhandsed that got better later, and here I am wanting to paperhands something else. I'm just tired of being bummed out every time I look at these stocks that lose money for me, especially when I can put that money elsewhere and make back my losses within a few weeks. How long will LAZR take to make back my losses? Months?

It's just a bummer because the stock looked so good when I got into it, and I got in at a good price too. I thought that was gonna be one of my best stocks.

I'm totally willing to stay in it...if there's a point. Right now it feels like there isn't. Every time I consider cashing out and reappropriating those funds, I go nah, it'll get better, and then a week later I'm down another chunk. It's frustrating, but so it goes if you want to do this stuff. I know Bitcoin was way down for YEARS at a time before rocketing up.



I'm not. Got my BTNB, PSTH, XPOA, and GSAH and they're the only stocks I don't want to dump at the moment. Paper Hands McGee over here
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It's a growth stock, and growth stocks in general have been lagging for the past 2 months ever since the Nasdaq correction. And even though Nasdaq has gone back up, its up from the bigger stocks like MSFT etc. It'll go up, the only question is when.
 
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Ravishing

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Rajaah said:
Not gonna hold you responsible for my decisionmaking or anything, but do you think I'd be better off dumping LAZR the next time it has any kind of bump? If that even happens. I did a post above about all the things I paperhandsed that got better later, and here I am wanting to paperhands something else. I'm just tired of being bummed out every time I look at these stocks that lose money for me, especially when I can put that money elsewhere and make back my losses within a few weeks. How long will LAZR take to make back my losses? Months?

It's just a bummer because the stock looked so good when I got into it, and I got in at a good price too. I thought that was gonna be one of my best stocks.

I'm totally willing to stay in it...if there's a point. Right now it feels like there isn't. Every time I consider cashing out and reappropriating those funds, I go nah, it'll get better, and then a week later I'm down another chunk. It's frustrating, but so it goes if you want to do this stuff. I know Bitcoin was way down for YEARS at a time before rocketing up.



I'm not. Got my BTNB, PSTH, XPOA, and GSAH and they're the only stocks I don't want to dump at the moment. Paper Hands McGee over here
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look at the current state of the economy/country.
riskiest time to be investing in anything is right now

inflation
money printing
fleeing cities
no housing inventory (outside cities)
prices to build homes skyrocketing
chip shortages everywhere
work from home (reduces economic activity)
shopping from home (reduces economic activity)
states bankrupted
covid
summer season coming (worst time for the markets)
markets overbought (per Blazr's charts)
everything at ATH (crypto / stocks)
plans to raise taxes
immigration crises
etc etc etc.

If you're invested now, either you have a short term goal/exit plan
Or you don't care short term and you are willing to ride things out for years.
 
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Mist

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Ravishing said:
look at the current state of the economy/country.
riskiest time to be investing in anything is right now

inflation
money printing
fleeing cities
no housing inventory (outside cities)
prices to build homes skyrocketing
chip shortages everywhere
work from home (reduces economic activity)
shopping from home (reduces economic activity)
states bankrupted
covid
summer season coming (worst time for the markets)
markets overbought (per Blazr's charts)
everything at ATH (crypto / stocks)
plans to raise taxes
immigration crises
etc etc etc.

If you're invested now, either you have a short term goal/exit plan
Or you don't care short term and you are willing to ride things out for years.
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Your logic makes no sense.

If anything, this is the riskiest time to be in cash in a long time, from the first 2 alone.

That said, I am largely in cash, because I was planning on making a seriously major addition to my house, aka tripling the size of my house, but the material prices are making me rethink things in the short term.
 
Mist

Mist

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What is the maximum normal tax-advantaged investment you can make in a year as a normal single person who isn't trying to do anything shady? Just 401k+Roth+HSA cap? Is there anything obvious I am missing?
 
Ravishing

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Mist said:
Your logic makes no sense.

If anything, this is the riskiest time to be in cash in a long time, from the first 2 alone.

That said, I am largely in cash, because I was planning on making a seriously major addition to my house, aka tripling the size of my house, but the material prices are making me rethink things in the short term.
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Sure, you want to protect against inflation, makes total sense. But buying anything right now when Housing, Stocks, Crypto, is all ATH? No thanks. The point is, it's super risky right now. Of course trying to protect against inflation makes sense, but that's something you should have done BEFORE... not NOW..

I'm sure someone has good ideas on where to put your money. I think Cash is as safe a bet as any at this moment. You should be able to leverage it once some things start "correcting".

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I more easily see 20% or greater drop in the markets as opposed to a 10% or greater increase.
The money I have invested is money I don't mind leaving to sit for a long while. I still may exit some positions (soon). And I'm certainly not dumping anymore money into the markets. I'm sitting on more cash than what I have invested. Just waiting for the right time.
 
Jackie Treehorn

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Ravishing said:
Sure, you want to protect against inflation, makes total sense. But buying anything right now when Housing, Stocks, Crypto, is all ATH? No thanks. The point is, it's super risky right now. Of course trying to protect against inflation makes sense, but that's something you should have done BEFORE... not NOW..

I'm sure someone has good ideas on where to put your money. I think Cash is as safe a bet as any at this moment. You should be able to leverage it once some things start "correcting".

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I more easily see 20% or greater drop in the markets as opposed to a 10% or greater increase.
The money I have invested is money I don't mind leaving to sit for a long while. I still may exit some positions (soon). And I'm certainly not dumping anymore money into the markets. I'm sitting on more cash than what I have invested. Just waiting for the right time.
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This is, I will say, exactly what people were saying a year ago, and the drop never happened, and I’ve seen many folks lamenting the huge money they missed out on by staying in cash.

Does it make sense things will fall? Sure. Things don’t always make sense though. I’m not gonna miss out on a possible record incoming year.
 
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Rajaah

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Well I'm out on COIN. Grabbed some early, watched the spike, didn't sell, held the line, waited for the rebound that I was sure would happen...nope. At this point in the day I think a large rebound would have happened already. Down 20%, that's enough.

I'm not sure how anyone made anything on COIN unless they bought in the first few minutes and jumped out at a 10% profit. Looks like it'll be a huge money-loser for everyone else. The people who said COIN wasn't worth it and the real story of the day was the bounce crypto was getting turned out to be the ones who were right.

I think if COIN had been valued a lot lower it would have been great. If they started it at say 150 I bet it'd be at 250+ by now. It's like putting something on Ebay with the starting bid set really high. You might not get any takers, wheras if you started with a low bid you could have 25 people fighting it out and end up with more than the high bid would have been anyway.
 
Ravishing

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Jackie Treehorn said:
This is, I will say, exactly what people were saying a year ago, and the drop never happened, and I’ve seen many folks lamenting the huge money they missed out on by staying in cash.
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1 year ago? After the March crash? What are you talking about?
I was very optimistic then and I was pushing money into the markets as fast as I could.
 
Jackie Treehorn

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Ravishing said:
1 year ago? After the March crash? What are you talking about?
I was very optimistic then and I was pushing money into the markets as fast as I could.
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I’m saying there are many people who avoided investing last year because they thought a Corona-induced crash was coming any second for the entire year.
 
Ravishing

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Jackie Treehorn said:
I’m saying there are many people who avoided investing last year because they thought a Corona-induced crash was coming any second for the entire year.
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got it, yes there are always doomsayers... and I'm going to be 'that guy' right now.

COIN high $429 | current $319
How low will it go?
 
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Jysin

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Rajaah said:
...

I'm not sure how anyone made anything on COIN unless they bought in the first few minutes and jumped out at a 10% profit. Looks like it'll be a huge money-loser for everyone else. The people who said COIN wasn't worth it and the real story of the day was the bounce crypto was getting turned out to be the ones who were right.

...
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The money was on the other side of the trade. Shares were fairly easy to locate for borrows from multiple brokers. Shorts made bank on this.
 
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