Investing General Discussion

Furry

Furry

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Hateyou said:
I don’t understand how this inflation data is any surprise whatsoever to anyone smart enough to deal in stocks. Gas prices have doubled over a three month period. Food prices have gone up 15-20% in the past six months. Lumber prices are going up 5% per WEEK. Shortages on metals has quotes on anything involving them to climb 1-2% per WEEK. Houses are going up thousands of dollars per WEEK. Do people in stocks not buy anything outside of stocks? They live in a bubble outside reality?

Im frankly shocked at how LOW the inflation data is. It feels like it should be more like a 10% YOY to me with how much everything has gone nuts the past 3-4 months.
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We covered this earlier. Whatever inflation actually is, the government's official numbers will remain low. There's a massive torpedo lurking in the numbers that makes the government treat inflation numbers like sauron. If they admit to the real number this will make the spending these past two years look like pennies:

www.opm.gov

Learn more about cost-of-living adjustments (COLA)

Welcome to opm.gov
www.opm.gov www.opm.gov

While that's one instance, COLA numbers apply to almost every government source of spending.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Hateyou said:
I don’t understand how this inflation data is any surprise whatsoever to anyone smart enough to deal in stocks. Gas prices have doubled over a three month period. Food prices have gone up 15-20% in the past six months. Lumber prices are going up 5% per WEEK. Shortages on metals has quotes on anything involving them to climb 1-2% per WEEK. Houses are going up thousands of dollars per WEEK. Do people in stocks not buy anything outside of stocks? They live in a bubble outside reality?

Im frankly shocked at how LOW the inflation data is. It feels like it should be more like a 10% YOY to me with how much everything has gone nuts the past 3-4 months.
Click to expand...
Its not. But you forget that the same people who believe the lies the MSM spews have also been believing the FED and the Administration that there is no inflation. Add to it one of the FEd presidents stating this morning she was "surprised" by the inflation number. A Fed president was "surprised" by this. They have zero clue.
 
TheBeagle

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Hateyou said:
I don’t understand how this inflation data is any surprise whatsoever to anyone smart enough to deal in stocks. Gas prices have doubled over a three month period. Food prices have gone up 15-20% in the past six months. Lumber prices are going up 5% per WEEK. Shortages on metals has quotes on anything involving them to climb 1-2% per WEEK. Houses are going up thousands of dollars per WEEK. Do people in stocks not buy anything outside of stocks? They live in a bubble outside reality?

Im frankly shocked at how LOW the inflation data is. It feels like it should be more like a 10% YOY to me with how much everything has gone nuts the past 3-4 months.
Click to expand...
It's not that they haven't known all that, it's that the media and politicians are finally acknowledging it publicly.
 
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Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Its not. But you forget that the same people who believe the lies the MSM spews have also been believing the FED and the Administration that there is no inflation. Add to it one of the FEd presidents stating this morning she was "surprised" by the inflation number. A Fed president was "surprised" by this. They have zero clue.
Click to expand...

They’re either liars or stupid.
 
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TheBeagle

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There is a significant portion of humanity that can't accept the reality of a situation, even one they may be involved in personally, until the media gives them permission to do so. Just look at how people are still handling Covid.
 
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R

Rais

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Sold off this morning. I have a weird itch that stuff is going to dip hard. Not as close to pandemic levels sadly.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Nasdaq chart for today. Back in Miami we would refer to this chart as no bueno. Not a good look for the back half of the trading day.

1620840402403.png
 
Borzak

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Hateyou said:
I don’t understand how this inflation data is any surprise whatsoever to anyone smart enough to deal in stocks. Gas prices have doubled over a three month period. Food prices have gone up 15-20% in the past six months. Lumber prices are going up 5% per WEEK. Shortages on metals has quotes on anything involving them to climb 1-2% per WEEK. Houses are going up thousands of dollars per WEEK. Do people in stocks not buy anything outside of stocks? They live in a bubble outside reality?

Im frankly shocked at how LOW the inflation data is. It feels like it should be more like a 10% YOY to me with how much everything has gone nuts the past 3-4 months.
Click to expand...

Historically when inflation got bad they strip out certain things in the numbers and cover it up. Inflation - housing, Inflation - food, Inflation - construction materials (next), Inflation - fuel, Inflation - vehicle prices (next).
 
Khane

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Edaw said:
Dow under 30k before the end of the month? Pre-election territory?

You get what you deserve.
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A new contender enters the ring! Where's Titan Atlas?

*To be fair this is not nearly as bold a prediction*
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Borzak said:
Historically when inflation got bad they strip out certain things in the numbers and cover it up. Inflation - housing, Inflation - food, Inflation - construction materials (next), Inflation - fuel, Inflation - vehicle prices (next).
Click to expand...
Yep. just like unemployment numbers. Why we have 6 different unemployment rates.
 
Hateyou

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I understand the media and government lying. What blows me away is how anyone at all believes it or makes financial decisions from it. Pretty much every person I know, political or not, has been talking about nothing for the past two months except about prices of everything, no one going back to work, etc. I am in my own bubble of knowing people who own things and build things and work for a living I guess.

This sign was at a Wendy’s near Indy. No one can find workers at all anymore, there’s food and drink shortages everywhere, some places have to shut down cause no workers showed up.
0924C916-4F3C-4B24-A08D-F39C07C7A04E.png
 
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LachiusTZ

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Can our pros give me a short and sweet on the calls and puts for spxu?

If the pricing weird because it's so leveraged?
 
Furry

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LachiusTZ said:
Can our pros give me a short and sweet on the calls and puts for spxu?

If the pricing weird because it's so leveraged?
Click to expand...

Leverage is where money goes to be deleted. I think multiple proshare funds were just completely erased last year as an example.
 
LachiusTZ

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Well our pros have had some good insight into options based on the pricing etc...

And let's be real. Even the people here that think stonks will go up, don't think it's really because of health.

So I've been buying spxu slowly for like two months when talking profits.

Went to look at the options, and the pricing just seemed odd
 
Big Phoenix

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Hateyou said:
I understand the media and government lying. What blows me away is how anyone at all believes it or makes financial decisions from it. Pretty much every person I know, political or not, has been talking about nothing for the past two months except about prices of everything, no one going back to work, etc. I am in my own bubble of knowing people who own things and build things and work for a living I guess.

This sign was at a Wendy’s near Indy. No one can find workers at all anymore, there’s food and drink shortages everywhere, some places have to shut down cause no workers showed up.
View attachment 353702
Click to expand...
Every fast food and sit down place ive around here has some type of hiring sign up.
 
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