Investing General Discussion

karma

karma

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Wife and I were considering moving around that time, she had JUST bought a business and we had our current mortgage. They wanted to give us another mortgage that was almost 5 times what we originally qualified for, and were fine if we had 2. We opted out, since the math we learned in school implied it would be difficult money wise, it was stupid how much money they were throwing around.
 
Fogel

Fogel

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MBS have existed for a long time. There were a lot of factors combined with simple greed that caused the issue. People were used to making X amount of money for a long time. Than things like treasury rates and increasing supply (cash) started to dip into those profits so they did everything they could to keep the gravy train flowing.
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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Threw a bunch of money in FTEC at 104.66 until growth stocks get their shit together
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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swayze22 said:
I received my economics degree in 2010. google CDO and MBS.

you aren't WRONG in saying freddie and fannie spurred along the housing crisis. but that in and of itself wouldn't have led to the total collapse of the economy. thats where the other two terms come in referenced above and where it takes multiple multiple parties for something like that to happen. (aka wall street)

my tl;dr posted earlier in the thread is the best summary without typing pages
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My only comment on the crash of 2008-ish is that there were so many catalysts involved, three people can say it happened because of X/Y/Z and all three can be right because there was a whole lot of greed and incompetence going on from all different directions.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Fogel said:
Threw a bunch of money in FTEC at 104.66 until growth stocks get their shit together
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For good or ill, FTEC being top heavy with AAPL and MSFT means you are saddled to those horses. I am ok with this because they are both hall of fame horses.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Borzak said:
I don't know the cause. I got to see the result and people didn't help their own cause. knew a number of people that "I got a raise we're selling the house and buying a new one". They only looked at houses within a certain area that reached the maximum they could get a loan for, and often boiled it down to X amount a month. I can get a loan that will be $1653/month I want a house that is $1653/month. Some of them with limited work history and first home.
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Most Americans still operate this way. "I can afford X amount per month house, car, etc." Real costs / common sense be damned.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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ABNB EPS loss nearly "double" analysts estimates. How do you lose that much fucking money when your business model is to run a website, arrange online reservations and skim a portion of the rent?

 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
ABNB EPS loss nearly "double" analysts estimates. How do you lose that much fucking money when your business model is to run a website, arrange online reservations and skim a portion of the rent?
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There are countries (UK) that outright banned vacation rentals for months. The entire country had basically been in full lockdown since December through March+ when the UK covid variant started going apeshit.
 
swayze22

swayze22

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Sanrith Descartes said:


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I may be off but this isn't surprising to me. The whole NE (most of US pop) hasn't been able to go out in Q1 right? All the people with money have all their shit and are throwing it in market, and all the people who usually buy bullshit are trying to pay for their "life". they probably bought the bullshit with the past stimmies and now need to just exist but idk, general uncertainty with Biden also and direction?
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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swayze22 said:
I may be off but this isn't surprising to me. The whole NE (most of US pop) hasn't been able to go out in Q1 right? All the people with money have all their shit and are throwing it in market, and all the people who usually buy bullshit are trying to pay for their "life". they probably bought the bullshit with the past stimmies and now need to just exist but idk, general uncertainty with Biden also and direction?
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The real takeaway is how worthless economists have become. Their estimates are just total shit anymore. And I say this with a quant econ diploma on my wall.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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DIS
Pre-market down about 4% to $170. Down about 16% from its high. I think $155-160 is an ideal entry, but I don't see it drifting down that low. The drop is because "analysts" estimated 3m more paid Disney+ subscribers than the 100m they reported. As Cali and global parks re-open and Fla parks stop the occupancy limits the next quarter should shine. If you are looking for an entry for the long-term, anything under $170 is probably a decent buy. That being said, short term it could see some downward movement or sideways movement for a bit.

disclosure: I am long DIS with an overweight position.

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Nester

Nester

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Sanrith Descartes said:
ABNB EPS loss nearly "double" analysts estimates. How do you lose that much fucking money when your business model is to run a website, arrange online reservations and skim a portion of the rent?

Click to expand...


It takes 5500 employees to run that website lol

these are tech jobs so at least $100k a year average including Benefits .

that’s half a billion in salaries a year without buying computer paying rent or flipping a light switch.

corporate America has so much fat to trim.
 
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