Investing General Discussion

Shonuff

Shonuff

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Hey, you might end up being wrong, but I think your process is sound. Time will tell.

As for me, I don't mind holding some cash back for the time being since most things I've been looking at have been flat or down for the last 2.5 months.
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I may be too early, but I'm usually late. What if covid drops but people are afraid to travel? But when I see Cramer adding travel stocks to his portfolio, I am heartened.

I'm not suggesting anyone follow me into this trade. Its just a contrarian trade that I am choosing to make, because I think the market is overreacting. Technicals are shit, but I'm betting that Dr Scottlieb, who is the ex head of the FDA, and on the boards of Pfizer and Moderna is right. That covid is burning itself out. And then the short sellers will be crushed and the companies will soar (pun intended).
 
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Shonuff

Shonuff

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When I look at the travel companies on tipranks on those companies and the 90 day chart, I feel like they've fallen too far. I'll be holding them, there aren't too many companies that far off the price target any more. Maybe the Chinese stocks, but those are ignoring fundamentals. I feel like in 30 days I'm going to be cleaning up.

I could be wrong.
 

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Jysin

Jysin

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Same boat that I can be early on the travel timing. However, I always leave a cash pile on the side if my timing is off. As soon as the case count decline circles wider media, the rotation should come back in. We’ve got another 2-3 weeks of lagging hospitalization media sensationalism to get through though.
 
wormie

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Today I became a proud owner of DIS. I still pirate their shit though because fuck woke.
 
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Shonuff

Shonuff

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Jysin said:
Same boat that I can be early on the travel timing. However, I always leave a cash pile on the side if my timing is off. As soon as the case count decline circles wider media, the rotation should come back in. We’ve got another 2-3 weeks of lagging hospitalization media sensationalism to get through though.
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Like I said, I don't want to be in late, and I think people will start catching on.

www.jacksonville.com

Florida COVID hospitalizations drop, intensive care patients and cases rise

After breaking records daily for two weeks, Florida hospitals reported Monday that the number of COVID-19 patients dropped for a second day in a row.
www.jacksonville.com
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

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ransomvik said:
Has the ARK versus Michael Burry feud been discussed yet? Who is right?
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Queen Cathie buys the weirdest stuff and at odd times. I'd never be able to stomach what she buys in my portfolio. She bought Coinbase all the way down from 470ish to 220, every damn day. She's been buying the stay at home stocks when no one wanted them. She literally does the opposite of everyone else.

I get her buys/sells, but I've never once followed a trade of hers.
 
swayze22

swayze22

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Shonuff Shonuff looks like there is a lag for CDC to aggregate all of the data & update. Which does make sense considering it's national. We will see what school does- last September the cases bottomed out and abruptly began to rise swiftly through October -> February.

Previously posted graph.
1629242912414.png


When I just checked
1629243240244.png
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

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swayze22 said:
Shonuff Shonuff looks like there is a lag for CDC to aggregate all of the data & update. Which does make sense considering it's national. We will see what school does- last September the cases bottomed out and abruptly began to rise swiftly through October -> February.

Previously posted graph.
View attachment 367709

When I just checked
View attachment 367712
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Right, but I'm looking at how fast delta fell off in the UK, India and how fast its falling in Florida. Hell, Cramer just said that one morning, the market is going to wake up and realize delta is whupped. And Gottlieb just said the infection rate is receding in 46 states.

fortune.com

Delta waves in India and the U.K. have already receded. Could the same happen in the U.S.?

Health officials are hoping for a 'hairpin' turn in cases—but no one's quite sure why infections are slowing in the first place
fortune.com fortune.com

www.wsj.com

Fresh U.K. Covid-19 Data Boosts Hopes That Delta Variant Can Be Held in Check

There is growing optimism among doctors and scientists in the country that the highly transmissible Delta variant can be managed by high levels of vaccination and public caution.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

710keel.com

Former FDA Chair Says COVID Is "Clearly Slowing" In Louisiana

A COVID expert says Louisiana is about to turn the corner on the Delta variant. What's evidence is there?
710keel.com 710keel.com

We'll know in another couple of weeks, right?
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Here is the biggest hurdle in my opinion for opening play stocks. We can analyze India variant data and say " cases are burning out, we are in the clear " and then the gubmint decides the Ligma variant is the new doom and lock shit down again. I played WYNN on the opening play but won't go all in with lots of other stocks because I can't accurately model what the Biden/CDC scumbags will do next.
 
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Shonuff

Shonuff

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Here is the biggest hurdle in my opinion for opening play stocks. We can analyze India variant data and say " cases are burning out, we are in the clear " and then the gubmint decides the Ligma variant is the new doom and lock shit down again. I played WYNN on the opening play but won't go all in with lots of other stocks because I can't accurately model what the Biden/CDC scumbags will do next.
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Its a trade. I won't be in these long enough for them to be thinking lambda. Lambda's been around for months...I hope to be out before/if it spikes.
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

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Here is a link of the R1's per state. In a state like Louisiana, that got hit the hardest, it now has an R1 of .71, meaning cases are expected to decline. This is a joint study done by Yale, Harvard and Stanford. I don't see a lower R1 than now on the chart.

www.covidestim.org

Louisiana Rt

Up-to-date estimates of key covid-19 metrics for your county or state
www.covidestim.org
 
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ToeMissile

ToeMissile

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Shonuff said:
Here is a link of the R1's per state. In a state like Louisiana, that got hit the hardest, it now has an R1 of .71, meaning cases are expected to decline. This is a joint study done by Yale, Harvard and Stanford. I don't see a lower R1 than now on the chart.

www.covidestim.org

Louisiana Rt

Up-to-date estimates of key covid-19 metrics for your county or state
www.covidestim.org
Click to expand...
I didn't bother to look for it, but it would be interesting to see these broken down by country/population density.

Ok, I won't be so lazy. Looks like NYT has a pretty decent set up based on CDC data. No R1 values, but still interesting.
www.nytimes.com

California Coronavirus Map and Case Count

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in California.
www.nytimes.com
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Fidelity has a beta available on the app to modernize it. You can turn the beta off and on. Playing with it now. Looks like they got the memo on HOOD appealing to younger folks with their app.
 
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