Investing General Discussion

I guess NKLA is in pain because GM gave up on hydrogen fuel cells as unrealistic technology. They might come to exist at some point, but the technology simply does not exist currently, and there are multiple major technological advances that need to happen in order for it to become feasible. NKLA advertising and taking preorders for a technology that does not exist and may not exist for decades(ever?) may present some financial issues in the future. May be a fine stock for gambling, though.

If their hydrogen fuel cell ends up just being a tank of compressed hydrogen, that may even play out worse. Compressed hydrogen is dangerous. The risk of explosion is notable enough that care must be taken whenever there is a chance of venting. Most people don't operate with care, thus it pretty much is an anathema of something intended for mass public use.

Furry said:

I guess NKLA is in pain because GM gave up on hydrogen fuel cells as unrealistic technology. They might come to exist at some point, but the technology simply does not exist currently, and there are multiple major technological advances that need to happen in order for it to become feasible. NKLA advertising and taking preorders for a technology that does not exist and may not exist for decades(ever?) may present some financial issues in the future. May be a fine stock for gambling, though.

If their hydrogen fuel cell ends up just being a tank of compressed hydrogen, that may even play out worse. Compressed hydrogen is dangerous. The risk of explosion is notable enough that care must be taken whenever there is a chance of venting. Most people don't operate with care, thus it pretty much is an anathema of something intended for mass public use.

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My belief is NKLA is basically vaporware. The more I dug into it the more I decided to not hold it long term. I traded out at a nice profit a while back. I am more of a believer in Hyliion (merging with SHLL). I think they have a real business model. I am currently long some SHLL options with a Jan expiry. I got in early. Doubled my money, and sort of regretted selling so after it dropped hard I bought the options for the long term.

SPAC update:
FVAC caught an article in Barrons yesterday. Up 10% today. Its merging with the only rral rare earth miner in the America's. I kind of like this company for a long term hold if they can monopolize the America's. There aren't a lot of rare earths here so it's best for a single player. Rare earths are a huge market for the future.

Bill Ackman's Godzilla SPAC should price tonight and trade tomorrow under PSTH. Its going to be a double size SPAC and price at $20 with a value of 4 billion.

With EV's, I think the real potential future will come with battery advances short term. LiFePo batteries are particularly appealing to manufacturers. A few advances lately have made it possible that they may match the typical lithium battery in density within a few years, and they are generally much better in every possible way except density. They are far less toxic than most forms of battery, there's almost no risk of fire, and they last a lot longer, and don't require any rare earths (potentially major).

The other battery to watch out for is the glass battery being developed by quebec hydro. It's very weird compared to other batteries, but it was theorized by a guy who has a nobel prize for inventing batteries, so it's worth paying attention.

Where's my Snowflake IPO. Shouldn't they announce the date of it at least a few weeks before they do it?

Sanrith Descartes said:

I just got stopped out of XOM. That was painful. It crashed through support levels and the 20 DMA. That was a chunky and ugly loss. But, like an ex-wife, at least it is out of my life.

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Because Mr. Market can be a cruel little fucker, after I got stopped out of XOM at the close yesterday its up 5% today. Least he could have done was give me reach around.

Sanrith Descartes said:

SPAC update:
FVAC caught an article in Barrons yesterday. Up 10% today. Its merging with the only rral rare earth miner in the America's. I kind of like this company for a long term hold if they can monopolize the America's. There aren't a lot of rare earths here so it's best for a single player. Rare earths are a huge market for the future.

Bill Ackman's Godzilla SPAC should price tonight and trade tomorrow under PSTH. Its going to be a double size SPAC and price at $20 with a value of 4 billion.

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FVAC update. After closing up 10%, it is up close to another 15% after the close on about 85k shares traded. This thing might be catching a little fire.

TZAC - Signed a merger agreement with Reviva Pharmaceuticals, a clinical stage pharmaceutical company developing therapies for medical needs around the central nervous system. Small SPAC, value is about 120m. Bought some to see if it can catch some momentum.

SPACS - Why they are worth a look. They can either be like slot machines and pay off for short term holds or they can end up being a way to get in on a ground floor of a decent company in the future without getting fucked by insiders on a standard IPO. The biggest advantage of a SPAC early is that the downside risk is almost non-existent. Here is why...
A SPAC when it goes public issues <X> shares at a price of 10$. All that money must go into an escrow account except for nominal expenses. No one gets to fuck with the investment seed money. The SPAC has 18-24 months to find a partner to do a reverse merge with and bring that company public. If it finds a partner, it becomes a wholly owned subsidiary, trades under the new symbol and it gets all the escrow money as equity in the company. If it fails to find a partner, it must give back all the escrow money to shareholders. All you can really lose is the expense money and the opportunity cost of that investment not making you money someplace else.

SPACs are a favorite of the Robinhood crowd. They pump the crap out of it on social media and discord in hopes it will catch fire. if it does, its like hitting three sevens on a slot machine. If it doesn't then you can sell your stock before the merger and its still going to have a floor of about 10$. This is about the best risk/reward you will find in the market these days. If a SPAC can get an article in Barrons, Forbes or on Cramer's show/Twitter account it can amaze.



As info, Bill Ackman of Pershing Capital is launching a super SPAC tomorrow (PSTU). Super because he is pricing it at double the price per share and issuing lots of shares. its supposed to launch with a market cap of 4 billion in seed money. Most SPACs are in the sub-500 million range. This thing will have enough seed money to hunt the Moby Dick of Mature Unicorns.

These are charts on the 4 SPACS I have invested in so far. NFIN has an "unofficial" merger agreement and its floating around waiting to see if they seal the deal.

Gold and Silver just rip upwards out of nowhere...