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But at what price is it a good deal? Or is this truly a company in terminal decline?
Investing General Discussion
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But at what price is it a good deal? Or is this truly a company in terminal decline?
Sanrith Descartes
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We know the sales are basically zero. The only numbers that will matter are cash burn and existing cash.
Sanrith Descartes
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I am looking at it around $45 if it gets there. It just seems like it has abdicated any growth and is just a straight value play. I also think its leadership is shit currently since they cant seem to make deadlines. It still makes a fuckton of cash though. I just keep looking at it going "whats the better return scenario, buying INTC at $45 or NVDA at $550?" The answer always says NVDA even at that price. If I am lucky I get 10% out of INTC in the next 6 months. I can get 10% out of NVDA in a week.
I don't think INTC is mortally wounded, I just find better places to put the cash until INTC shows me something positive.
edit: let me clarify. Investing philosophy matters too. I have INTC in my mom's portfolio. It is a solid and safe 3% yield. I dont sweat price fluctuations since she isnt selling it in the forseeable future..
Blazin
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Better be short duration bonds, chart of LT looks like total shit. Has lost 200 day moving average for the first time in 2 years on TLT. Also, you aren't alone in that sentiment, in fact so many feeling that way it's probably the wrong move. Nobody can makes those decisions for you. You mentionn it's your 401k if you are like 40 yrs old and 25 yrs from retirement not sure I get why you would sell because it may drop a few percent. You think in 2040 you'll look back and go damn, wish I avoided that 5% decline back in '20?
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Sanrith Descartes
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For those looking to sell, look back to black Monday in March. We took a 30% drop in a week. Made new highs 3 months later. If anything, be ready to buy if the market tanks. The boat has already sailed on the bond play in my opinion.
Sanrith Descartes
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Something to think about. If you dont have a plan yet for the possible scenarios in the next couple of weeks you should probably map them out. Have an "oh shit, the market crashed plan", an "oh shit, the markets going parabolic" plan. And a plan for something in between like a 10% correction.
Might be worth going back in this thread to early March and reading what we were doing and how the market was acting. Understand circuit breakers. Have targets in the pre-market and know the prices if the market opens and circuit breakers insta-kick. Having all those numbers and limit orders in was really advantageous during March.
Might be worth going back in this thread to early March and reading what we were doing and how the market was acting. Understand circuit breakers. Have targets in the pre-market and know the prices if the market opens and circuit breakers insta-kick. Having all those numbers and limit orders in was really advantageous during March.
Indyocracy
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Well I have changed my tune, starting to sniff some hopium now that everyone is thinking the market is gonna crash after the election. Spy 350 call for 11/30, landslide victory for someone to the moon!
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Indyocracy
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How long was the put for? Personally if it was short term I'd just let it ride out and collect my premium unless you are comfortable owning the stock at the new price point as well.
taebin
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I guess it depends on the drop. To me there is quite a big difference between a 3% drop and a 20% drop. But if I could safe harbor tens of thousands when the likelihood of an immediate correction is imminent, I don't see why I shouldn't. You do this for a living and know much more than I, but there was a post not long ago from someone who saw the damage COVID was going to cause further out than most of us, swapped over to bonds prior to March 23rd, then moved back to SP500 in May/June timeframe. Obviously it's hard to know the all clear to move things back and trying to time the market isn't smart, but still.
You said 'in fact so many feeling that way it's probably the wrong move'. I would think if there was a mass exodus to the bond market from the SP500, that would only exacerbate the dip and make the move even smarter. Is the right move really just sitting it out while everyone else is ducking for cover? My time horizon is long, but still seems silly to sit in a dip when it sure feels like it's coming.
Fogel
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Today for example I sold a 38 put on SNAP expires 10/30. Few hours after it went from 39 to 42 or about 8%
Sanrith Descartes
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Once I sell a put i rarely let it expire. At 3-5 cents or so I tend to buy and close to erase any possible black swan events.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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If its a long term investment I'd advise against it, or at least selling all of it. You know what they say about trying to time the market. Best case scenario - You time it well and make an extra 5-10%. But there's the possibility that the dip never happens and the market continues to go up and you now have to decide when to buy back in and how much you "lose" from buying back in at a higher price.
Sanrith Descartes
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There are tons of articles and posts about market timing (which is what this is). Im not disparaging anyone, but always take after the fact stories of market timing success with a grain of salt. Market timing "rarely" works out.
With a very long time frame, the better option is to ride it out. The reason being if you are wrong and there isn't a correction you miss out on a possibly parabolic up move. A large chunk of gains come right after the bottom is reached and most timers miss out on this gain.
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Fogel
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Sanrith Descartes
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Don't focus on the % gain of the stock. Look at the current bid/ask of the put as that is the price you would pay to close out your short position.
Sanrith Descartes
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Fogel
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Original put was .47 at 38 strike. If I were to roll up to say 40 strike now, Its .30 ask to buy out the original and the bid for 40 strike is .65. So I'd be making .17 from the original buy out and then an additional .35 from the roll up, correct?
The big thing I was just curious was if chasing higher strikes was a winning strategy