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Sanrith Descartes

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SPACs down today. People are saying they’ve become too popular and are getting more and more mainstream press which is causing deviation from the patterns they typically exhibit. Or that could be nonsense.

Still holding all my shares of DYMD, APXT, and HCAC.
BTWN disagrees with this sentiment.

Some SPACs are down because people are finally realizing they have to actually do due diligence on them and realizing some of them are crap.
 
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Borzak

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If the first company doesn't call them Johnny cabs it's a fail. Of course it's probably copywrited or whatever.
 
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Khane

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My guess is there will be a need in big ass cities where you cant afford to park a car, travelers, and the poors who cant afford a self-driving car. At least thats how I see it shaking out.

Fair point, but that's still a small amount of market share to consider it a major focus for pushing the tech forward.

The only reason I mention it is because for some reason it always seems to be one of the major talking points of self driving vehicles. Fleets of taxis. And it just seems counter-intuitive considering the only time most people even use Uber/Taxi services is when they're planning on getting drunk and if their own car can drive itself... well...
 

Captain Suave

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if their own car can drive itself... well...
If you live in an area of sufficient density, I think it would make a lot of sense not to own a car. Most people's vehicles sit unused 90% of the time and tie up a noticeable chunk of assets/income. If I could replace my car with a $5-10 per trip ride hail that I could schedule in advance for specific times I'd absolutely do it.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Fair point, but that's still a small amount of market share to consider it a major focus for pushing the tech forward.

The only reason I mention it is because for some reason it always seems to be one of the major talking points of self driving vehicles. Fleets of taxis. And it just seems counter-intuitive considering the only time most people even use Uber/Taxi services is when they're planning on getting drunk and if their own car can drive itself... well...
You have a great point.
 

Khane

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If you live in an area of sufficient density, I think it would make a lot of sense not to own a car. Most people's vehicles sit unused 90% of the time and tie up a noticeable chunk of assets/income. If I could replace my car with a $5-10 per trip ride hail that I could schedule in advance for specific times I'd absolutely do it.

Well yea... but when was the last time you took a $5 cab ride? 1965?
 

Captain Suave

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Well yea... but when was the last time you took a $5 cab ride? 1965?
99% of my car trips are under a mile.

Also, the reason cabs are currently expensive is that a human has to drive them. If you're just charging for the time cost of the automated fleet, prices will plummet.
 

Khane

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Maybe. It's an interesting thought I just don't consider it a viable investment. Self driving cars are going to be a thing. Self driving fleets, especially long distance trucking, is going to be a game changer. I just think self driving taxis will be more niche than mainstream.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Decided to up the quality a bit on my options and wrote some INTC puts. 1/15 expiry (just before earnings day), $47 strike. 60 cent premium.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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LAZR

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Oops...

Mobileye looks to build its own lidar to drive down self-driving costs
REUTERS 1:20 PM ET 12/15/2020
Symbol Last Price Change
INTC 50.38up -0.09 (-0.1783%)
QUOTES AS OF 01:23:00 PM ET 12/15/2020
By Stephen Nellis

(Reuters) - The chief executive of Intel Corp(INTC)-owned Mobileye on Tuesday laid out plans for a self-driving car system for 2025 that could use house-built lidar sensors rather than units from Luminar Technologies Inc and cost a "few thousand" dollars.

Mobileye is making rapid progress toward a full autonomous driving system using cameras and a custom-made processor chip, but the company plans to augment its cameras with lidar and radar sensors that will capture a three-dimensional view of the road. Mobileye believes it can meet the safety and reliability requirements automakers are demanding for production vehicles by combining the two approaches.

Mobileye has deals to supply its current camera-based driver assistance systems to BMW, Volkswagen AG and Nissan Motor Co. Those systems help with tasks such as adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping and but also generate and transmit mapping data for Mobileye as they drive.

Amnon Shashua, CEO of Mobileye and an Intel(INTC) senior vice president, told Reuters that data allowed the company's test vehicle to autonomously navigate the streets of Munich with only a week of setup and without flying any engineers from Mobileye headquarters in Israel to Germany.

"This is a critical milestone - this is what you need for scalability. If you want to have a system at the consumer level, it has to be able to drive everywhere," he told Reuters after the company posted footage of the successful test, which used a human safety driver as a backup.

Mobileye plans to demonstrate its camera-based systems with safety drivers in several more cities before rolling out a test fleet of 100 completely driverless vehicles augmented with lidar and radar in Tel Aviv in 2022.

In November, Mobileye said it had selected Luminar to supply lidar units starting in 2022. Luminar began trading as a public company earlier this month after a merger with Gores Metropoulos Inc, a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.

Shashua said the Luminar-based systems will cost between $10,000 and $20,000 and will be targeted at robo-taxis, which are commercial vehicles that can spread the cost of the system over many trips. But for 2025, Mobileye is developing its own lidar sensor that works on a principle called frequency modulated continuous wave, or FMCW, which is different from Luminar's technology.

Shashua said the FMCW technology will benefit from Intel's(INTC) silicon photonics manufacturing expertise and will drive costs low enough for consumer cars. He said the house-built Mobileye lidar, in combination with cameras and radar, will be used on consumer vehicles and could also replace Luminar's units in Mobileye-powered robo-taxis.

"We believe the cost of an entire self-driving system can be in the few thousand dollar range, and that brings us into a consumer vehicle position," he said. "If we can make this work, it will also be used for robotaxis. But we have time to make that decision five years from today."

Mobileye does plan to continue outsourcing the manufacturing of its processor chips, Shashua said. He said the next generation of chip, called the EyeQ6 and expected to arrive in 2023, will continue to be made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's using its 7-nanometer chipmaking process.
-12% and sinking.
-14%
 
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Borzak

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99% of my car trips are under a mile.

Also, the reason cabs are currently expensive is that a human has to drive them. If you're just charging for the time cost of the automated fleet, prices will plummet.
Medallions. Companies keep it locked down and they resell for much much more than they would be worth if not for artifical scarcity.
 
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Khane

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And self driving taxis likely won't change that as taxi companies/drivers/medallion holders will lobby hard to make it so only medallion holders can operate a self driving cab.
 
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Captain Suave

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And self driving taxis likely won't change that as taxi companies/drivers/medallion holders will lobby hard to make it so only medallion holders can operate a self driving cab.
Taxi companies or drivers won't be the ones owning the self-driving cars. Just like with human drivers, Uber/Lyft give no fucks for regulation. They'll just move in, and by the time the medallion-holders organize a complaint the public will already be relying on the product. As soon as the tech is ready (5 years? 10? More? Dunno.) they're coming.
 

Jysin

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The whole idea of automated cars is not just taxis. If you think about it, how much money does the average American spend on a vehicle? That depreciating asset that most people are paying interest charged loans on, sits idle in a driveway / garage / parking lot for 95%+ of its lifetime. Sure, there is a utility aspect of some vehicle ownership, but there is an argument to be made for the massively reduced point in owning one (certainly not multiple) vehicles for a lot of people.

You just use an app to hail your Tesla-taxi to your GPS location. Basically Uber without the immigrant drivers.

We are a ways off from this market penetration, but you can see where the tech is leading.
 

Khane

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That makes sense in a densely populated city where many people already don't own cars. Like NYC. It does not make sense in typical suburban America where you'd end up spending more per month to run errands in a cab than you would on an actual car payment. Not to mention the inconvenience cost of having to wait for a cab every time you wanted to go somewhere.

I own a 2010 Camry. I haven't had a car payment in over 5 years. I would never even consider not owning a vehicle. I can't imagine the only thing making people purchase vehicles is that Uber has a human behind the wheel.
 

LachiusTZ

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That makes sense in a densely populated city where many people already don't own cars. Like NYC. It does not make sense in typical suburban America where you'd end up spending more per month to run errands in a cab than you would on an actual car payment. Not to mention the inconvenience cost of having to wait for a cab every time you wanted to go somewhere.

I own a 2010 Camry. I haven't had a car payment in over 5 years. I would never even consider not owning a vehicle. I can't imagine the only thing making people purchase vehicles is that Uber has a human behind the wheel.

In the future you will own nothing, and be happier than ever
 
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