Investing General Discussion

Flobee · May 4, 2021

Jysin said:
Yellen talking about rate hikes to calm overheating market. Sold that F.

This is the first even mention of raising rates and could be the catalyst for a correction.

When has any Central Banker been able to withstand the backlash of raising rates since Volcker? Raising rates is probably the right move, but I doubt the public will have the stomach to take their medicine. That being said I bet we see a pullback short term.

Chart tells one story. Rates will continue trending to 0 because we "can't afford" to let equities crash.

(Wilshire 5000 only total market I could find that goes to 80's in a quick search)

Big Phoenix · May 4, 2021

Good luck raising rates when the financial world is addicted to 0% rates and you dont have the money to pay the increased interest payments.

Borzak · May 4, 2021

Print more free money obviously

Sanrith Descartes · May 4, 2021

Volcker may have been the last truly independent Fed Chairman. All the ones today are just cronies and hacks. Yellen going from Fed Chair to Sec Treasury is an abomination.

Big Phoenix · May 4, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Yellen going from Fed Chair to Sec Treasury is an abomination

Conflict of interest? Impossible. Biden is good guy media guy said so.

Flobee · May 4, 2021

Japanese Gov. Masaru Hayami lasted 7 months in 2000 with his rates hike.

December 2018 Powell says stopping QE is on "automatic pilot" Fed "clarifies" within 48 hours

March 12 2020, Christine Lagarde speaks of raising rates capitulates within 2 hours.

EDIT: Assuming the source is legit we've come full circle

Sanrith Descartes · May 5, 2021

NOC has been on a nice run. Made another new 52 high this morning. This is like 4 or 5 in a week. HD another 52 high as well. It has been on a tear for about a month now.

billymain · May 5, 2021

CX keeps climbing new 52 week highs. CEMEX announces 28% increase in first quarter EBITDA on back of top-line growth of 9% - CEMEX announces 28% increase in first quarter EBITDA on back of top-line growth of 9% - CEMEX
they got plants open in south texas and alemeda california. largest 2 cement producing states in the US. net sales in mexico up 19% , 5% us from same quarter last year

"CEMEX is successfully introducing Vertua®, its low carbon and net-zero CO2 products, in the countries where it has a presence. Vertua® is the result of the work done by the CEMEX’s Research and Development Center in Switzerland, and it´s a milestone towards carbon-neutral construction becoming a reality."

CEMEX awarded grant from U.S. Department of Energy to develop pioneering carbon capture technology

CEMEX announced today that its U.S. operations have been awarded a grant from the United States Department of Energy (“DOE”) to research, engineer and develop a pilot for a breakthrough carbon capture unit.

www.cemex.com

Mist · May 5, 2021

At this rate my 40k joke dogecoins are going to be able to buy me at least 10 sheets of plywood.

Tmac · May 5, 2021

Mist said:
At this rate my 40k joke dogecoins are going to be able to buy me at least 10 sheets of plywood.

And 1 sheet of OSB.

Last year one sheet of OSB was $6.50. Builders pricing them out for the next six months are getting them at $65.00

LachiusTZ · May 5, 2021

And timber at historic lows

Tmac · May 5, 2021

LachiusTZ said:
And timber at historic lows

Timber prices have actually increased 5% - 15% in the past couple months and are still low.

I added a banner to one of my websites to indicate this increase and I've gotten a deluge of leads, haha.

LachiusTZ · May 5, 2021

Ok, *near* historic lows. Lol

Tmac · May 5, 2021

LachiusTZ said:
Ok, *near* historic lows. Lol

I wasn’t being pedantic. Was confirming your point that even w a bump they’re still wildly disproportionate to lumber and at an ATL.

Borzak · May 5, 2021

Can buy peloton on the dip, recalled all treadmills.

Hurricanes traditionally lower timber prices and increase building material prices. Two hurricanes last year on the gulf coast. All the down trees get hauled to the mill eventually cheaper than standing timber. Of course there's a 1,000 other things also going on now. The southeast outproduces the pacitic northwest in timber thanks to the owl and other environmental issues.

Jysin · May 5, 2021

I have been bearish on PTON for months. Vaccines rolling out and summer at our door. Who the fuck wants to continue sitting indoors staring at walls / a screen? Go the fuck outside and enjoy yourself. PTON was a lockdown play. The recall tanked the price today. Earnings are tomorrow. Forward guidance will be key. I think Q2 / Q3 will be down.

Just my intuition.

Sanrith Descartes · May 5, 2021

PTON hasnt even begun to feel the pain yet. Wait until the lawsuits and returns demanding a full refund begin rolling in.

Sanrith Descartes · May 5, 2021

NOC is heading towards a 5-year high.

Sanrith Descartes · May 5, 2021

Blazin said:
Getting hard to find new plays right now. Just about everything is OB. Watching ABBV for signs we are finally ready to test the highs from 2018. Nice looking pennant on XLE . Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing.

For those who took Blazin's advice on ABBV last month a nice 11% rip over the 4 weeks or so plus the chunky 5% dividend yield

Blazin · May 5, 2021

Speculative tech is really not looking good. Warned about PLTR chart for a bit now looks poised to lose support levels. Many names daily charts starting too look ugly. ZG, DOCU, PLTR etc. More and more of them are losing their 200d ma's and are clearly trapped in downtrends with rallies setting lower highs.

Sanrith mentioned before about the ARKK basket of goods flaming out, if we see a complete collapse in these names then ARKK would be in serious trouble. While I believe Cathie is in these names for the long haul 5-10 yrs min. her average investor is not. THey were part of the speculative gambling crowd which gave her tons of money to work with. If they abandon her she will be forced to sell these illiquid names against her will to meet redemptions.

If this happens the best of them should be bought that doesnt mean they will ever go back to the valuations they had back in January.

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