Investing General Discussion

Tmac

Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
53k a year for the meds. I wonder how much they paid off the FDA voters?
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I doubt they literally paid them off, but if you’re a salesman and you know who makes the decision, you’re probably not going to care about an advisory board. So, you focus on the people that actually make the decision.

Which would seem to be the case here.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Tmac said:
I doubt they literally paid them off, but if you’re a salesman and you know who makes the decision, you’re probably not going to care about an advisory board. So, you focus on the people that actually make the decision.

Which would seem to be the case here.
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Pay can come in many forms. Ask anyone who has ever worked for the SEC and now works on Wallstreet.
 
Fogel

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What makes the FDA look bad here though is they usually do follow the advisory board and only go against them when its a tighter vote. This was 10 to 1, and the one wasn't a yes, they were undecided
 
Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
Not defending the Fed but their stance is not that there is no inflation but that it is temporary and won't be persistent. You won't even get the first chance to say "hah wrong!" until this time next year at the earliest.
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Correct me if I'm wrong in the following reasoning:

-We are experiencing inflation.

-The way the Fed traditionally combatted inflation was to raise interest rates to put the brakes on it.

-The Fed is in a self-painted corner in that if they raise rates very much they will tank the stock market, and the Fed is more inclined to listen to the people who run the market than to worry about a little inflation for main street.

Ergo, we are going to get a LOT of inflation for a while and people will cry about it but the people in a position to do something about it (Fed and treasury) have a vested interest in doing nothing about it and letting people suffer through it. I just wonder if they are playing with fire with this strategy and exposing the country (market included, though it is largely divorced from the real economy) to the distinct possibility of the type of inflation that can ruin the entire world economy. Again.
 
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Furry

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Correct me if I'm wrong in the following reasoning:

-We are experiencing inflation.

-The way the Fed traditionally combatted inflation was to raise interest rates to put the brakes on it.

-The Fed is in a self-painted corner in that if they raise rates very much they will tank the stock market, and the Fed is more inclined to listen to the people who run the market than to worry about a little inflation for main street.

Ergo, we are going to get a LOT of inflation for a while and people will cry about it but the people in a position to do something about it (Fed and treasury) have a vested interest in doing nothing about it and letting people suffer through it. I just wonder if they are playing with fire with this strategy and exposing the country (market included, though it is largely divorced from the real economy) to the distinct possibility of the type of inflation that can ruin the entire world economy. Again.
Click to expand...
Pretty much everyone expected last year's policy to lead to inflation. I think the biggest factor you missed considering is that the government has a very strong incentive to allow inflation for many reasons, but also to pretend it isn't happening in COLA calculations. The amount of money potentially connected to this is staggering.
 
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Blazin

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Correct me if I'm wrong in the following reasoning:

-We are experiencing inflation.

-The way the Fed traditionally combatted inflation was to raise interest rates to put the brakes on it.

-The Fed is in a self-painted corner in that if they raise rates very much they will tank the stock market, and the Fed is more inclined to listen to the people who run the market than to worry about a little inflation for main street.

Ergo, we are going to get a LOT of inflation for a while and people will cry about it but the people in a position to do something about it (Fed and treasury) have a vested interest in doing nothing about it and letting people suffer through it. I just wonder if they are playing with fire with this strategy and exposing the country (market included, though it is largely divorced from the real economy) to the distinct possibility of the type of inflation that can ruin the entire world economy. Again.
Click to expand...

Inflation (as measured by the fed/gov) has been stubbornly low for a long time. This has led to policy that is increasingly friendly, for the lack of a better word, towards inflation. Only to a point, however. The only way for the government to not become swamped by large debt is to grow and inflate your way out of it. This is what we have done for going on hundreds of years now. Occasionally, inflation gets too ahead of growth and the fed is forced to tamp down that inflation with higher rates which subsequently stifles economic growth.

Right now the fed doesn't feel caught, they don't believe the inflation will last and it may not. Technology has been a major deflationary headwind and they expect that to resume. They want wage increases especially for the lower class, we are getting that. How much it feeds into the price of goods will be determined by productivity which is technology driven. Companies will pay more for labor but will seek to do more with that labor.

Some of us have a tilt towards being anti establishment in regards to the Fed so we tend to look for the worse outcome, that they over do it and it goes out of control.

The areas that will likely inflate even upon success by their measure is going to be in things like stocks and real estate because those are the assets of the rich, and Fed policy is poorly adapted to reach the people they are trying to reach. Fed makes money cheap -> people best at using money benefit.

We will start having some answers to this experiment in 12 months. The Fed would probably be okay with 3-4% YOY for 2022 if it doesn't moderate to 2% by 2023 I think they will begin adapting monetary policy to respond.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Furry said:
Pretty much everyone expected last year's policy to lead to inflation. I think the biggest factor you missed considering is that the government has a very strong incentive to allow inflation for many reasons, but also to pretend it isn't happening in COLA calculations. The amount of money potentially connected to this is staggering.
Click to expand...
Ya, pretty much all 'big data' numbers from the government and quasi-gov institutions are cooking their numbers on... just about everything. I'm only going by the numbers we're being sold on and the numbers the fed and treasury are acting on. Whether or how much those numbers pertain to reality is anyone's guess.
 
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Furry

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Ya, pretty much all 'big data' numbers from the government and quasi-gov institutions are cooking their numbers on... just about everything. I'm only going by the numbers we're being sold on and the numbers the fed and treasury are acting on. Whether or how much those numbers pertain to reality is anyone's guess.
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I think more than any other time in history, this inflation will be mostly because of supply shocks. There's a lot of money moving around right now, and the demand for lots of things is incredibly high. Because of that, I feel like the outlook for people trying to make money is good. I'm not scared of holding stocks despite the threat of higher inflation coming. I think this will be a different story than the 70s.
 
Gravel

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Blazin said:
The areas that will likely inflate even upon success by their measure is going to be in things like stocks and real estate because those are the assets of the rich, and Fed policy is poorly adapted to reach the people they are trying to reach. Fed makes money cheap -> people best at using money benefit.
Click to expand...
This is something I think everyone knows, but some people think can somehow change. As I've gotten older, I've realized that's impossible. It's like the marshmallow test. Certain people are just incapable of utilizing money to make money, and it's genetic.

It's one of the few reasons I'm hopeful we won't be destitute. We're well invested, so unless the "haves" decide to go scorched earth and obliterate everything, we should be okay.
 
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Mist

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Blazin said:
Inflation (as measured by the fed/gov) has been stubbornly low for a long time.
...
We will start having some answers to this experiment in 12 months. The Fed would probably be okay with 3-4% YOY for 2022 if it doesn't moderate to 2% by 2023 I think they will begin adapting monetary policy to respond.
Click to expand...
The Reagan years proved that the American economy can handle 5% inflation YOY and be just fine for quite a while.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Correct me if I'm wrong in the following reasoning:

-We are experiencing inflation.

-The way the Fed traditionally combatted inflation was to raise interest rates to put the brakes on it.

-The Fed is in a self-painted corner in that if they raise rates very much they will tank the stock market, and the Fed is more inclined to listen to the people who run the market than to worry about a little inflation for main street.

Ergo, we are going to get a LOT of inflation for a while and people will cry about it but the people in a position to do something about it (Fed and treasury) have a vested interest in doing nothing about it and letting people suffer through it. I just wonder if they are playing with fire with this strategy and exposing the country (market included, though it is largely divorced from the real economy) to the distinct possibility of the type of inflation that can ruin the entire world economy. Again.
Click to expand...
Yes to all. Except this. Janet Powell is avoiding raising rates mainly because the President is asking him not to because while yes it tanks the market, but much more importantly it raises borrowing costs for the US Govt. And Biden wants to spend lots of money. Raising rates 2 or 3% on the trillions they are spending is a real amount of money. The market is a secondary reason.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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There's not much inflation, c'mon man.
Gas is up
Housing is up
Food is up
Day to day goods are up
Lumber is up
Auto prices are up

And oh yeah GPU prices are off the chart lol
But there's no inflation, oh and apparently mineral leases are picking back up and drilling is profitable again (IE prices are up). The old "too many dollars chasing too few goods" is getting it on both ends now.
 
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