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Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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Fogel said:
I see no reason to sell long term holds and ETFs right now. They'll recover from this the same way most of them recovered from covid, the February correction, etc.
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Maybe, but pretty much all the stuff I have is down anywhere from 5-15% from where I bought them right now. They could easily drop another 20% during this downturn.

CTRE -13%
NUE -5%
DLR -9%
UNP -9%
FDX -4.5% (This one's annoying since I bought it after that recent massive drop already.)

Now, I don't consider these to be risky stocks. They've all been talked about here as solid long term plays, and none of them shows the kind of steady long term trickle of growth that would indicate they are solid long term plays. Now I'm looking at a likely downtrend that might increase those numbers by a factor of 2 or 3. Should I really continue to expose myself to this kind of risk?
 
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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Maybe, but pretty much all the stuff I have is down anywhere from 5-15% from where I bought them right now. They could easily drop another 20% during this downturn.

CTRE -13%
NUE -5%
DLR -9%
UNP -9%
FDX -4.5% (This one's annoying since I bought it after that recent massive drop already.)

Now, I don't consider these to be risky stocks. They've all been talked about here as solid long term plays, and none of them shows the kind of steady long term trickle of growth that would indicate they are solid long term plays. Now I'm looking at a likely downtrend that might increase those numbers by a factor of 2 or 3. Should I really continue to expose myself to this kind of risk?
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Yes. Diamond hands.
 
Blazin

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Maybe, but pretty much all the stuff I have is down anywhere from 5-15% from where I bought them right now. They could easily drop another 20% during this downturn.

CTRE -13%
NUE -5%
DLR -9%
UNP -9%
FDX -4.5% (This one's annoying since I bought it after that recent massive drop already.)

Now, I don't consider these to be risky stocks. They've all been talked about here as solid long term plays, and none of them shows the kind of steady long term trickle of growth that would indicate they are solid long term plays. Now I'm looking at a likely downtrend that might increase those numbers by a factor of 2 or 3. Should I really continue to expose myself to this kind of risk?
Click to expand...

Don't make a decision based on a recent entry on a LT holding. Always deal with the chart that is front of you
Capture.JPG

So nothing particular concerning YET when looking at a long term chart. The stock clearly has resistance at 25, the 200 week avg right below it's current level will be the point to watch. It can dip below without a panic but if goes below and and doesn't recapture that will cause the 200 wk ma to start flattening out and then roll over. This we don't want. As a REIT it's interest rate sensitive. The move from Nov is now being challenged. CTRE pays over a 5% divy holdings like this only work if you have the patience to reinvest dividends and hold them for long periods of time. You want increasing dividends which it's providing. Start thinking about dips as opportunities to reinvest dividends at a favorable price.

You get into swing trading a LT dividend play is usually not going to work out. Feel bad cause I think I mentioned this one to you as far as liking Healthcare REITS more than retail/office reits in this environment. Back in June we were above the 20 day above the 50 and both where above the 200 now today all three of those things are now the opposite. Only you know if you hold too much of it, in a properly weighted portfolio I would show some more patience and watch the $20 range. Make sure you are reinvesting dividends.
 
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Blazin

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I'm taking the IWM shares and the SPY shares. Don't think we are at bottom yet but I don't mind starting my first non option nibble here.
 
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Jysin

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Pretty ugly close. At one point we had 5-6Bil to the sale side MOC (market on close). Pretty considerable size!

We closed at 429.07 on SPY, where 428.86 was the lowest intraday level last week.

Decent chance of a gap down tomorrow. If we give up that 428.86, I think we really trigger some selling. We've just put up one ugly daily candle.
 
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Jysin said:
Pretty ugly close. At one point we had 5-6Bil to the sale side MOC (market on close). Pretty considerable size!

We closed at 429.07 on SPY, where 428.86 was the lowest intraday level last week.

Decent chance of a gap down tomorrow. If we give up that 428.86, I think we really trigger some selling. We've just put up one ugly daily candle.
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hard to say with today being quarter end there is a chance tomorrow sees some change in flows. Dip buyers are holding off because we have come so far that it takes a larger dip to get people to feel like it's a dip of significance. Nothing concerning about a 5-10% pullback we have been way over due for one and it's the juice we will need to get a strong close to year.
 
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Blazin said:
hard to say with today being quarter end there is a chance tomorrow sees some change in flows. Dip buyers are holding off because we have come so far that it takes a larger dip to get people to feel like it's a dip of significance. Nothing concerning about a 5-10% pullback we have been way over due for one and it's the juice we will need to get a strong close to year.
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I am 100% with you on this. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, I would be shocked if we got a 10% correction. People are just waiting to throw their money at the markets. I am just hoping for a gap down day with a big irrational sell at the open and we establish a bottom to go in big size. Can't just throw money at a slow bleeding chart. Need a bigger / faster move to go in with considerable size.

As I had said to others in the last week, I am not a seller in this. I am buying critical support levels with lots of cash at the ready just in case we do get the big sell. We just might not get that big sell, so I, like you, are taking nibbles as we dip.
 
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Jysin

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Shonuff said:
Are we really expecting a correction after it just corrected?
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Seeing it base out over a longer period of time is good. Daily chart holding here is great sign, especially as it holds when the rest of the market is selling.

The technical breakout we need is for it to clear (and hold over the $86 upper gap level)
 
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Jysin said:
I am 100% with you on this. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, I would be shocked if we got a 10% correction. People are just waiting to throw their money at the markets. I am just hoping for a gap down day with a big irrational sell at the open and we establish a bottom to go in big size. Can't just throw money at a slow bleeding chart. Need a bigger / faster move to go in with considerable size.

As I had said to others in the last week. I am not a seller in this, I am buying critical support levels with lots of cash at the ready just in case we do get the big sell. We just might not get that big sell, so I, like you, are taking nibbles as we dip.
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We should have a battle at SPX 4225 area, I'd be highly amazed if we don't get a bounce at minimum off that level, that may then fail back around the range we were in today. The challenge will be to figure out how heavy to play that and how much to hold for a failure and a full 10% correction. I'll be doing a mix of near dated options and taking share positions to give me those choices and flexibility. So will probably try to be $250k or so of new equity next week or maybe even tomorrow if we get into that 4225 range plus selling puts (~$500k)that are just a week or so out with strikes in 4100 range. If I can squeeze $30k more I'll be able to close up shop for the year and just ride a couple positions that I like.

I still think base case is a rally into year end, but an expected policy move could certainly change things quickly. Should be scary enough like most pullbacks that many will play it the wrong way as there will be a nice list of worries and people saying it is going to get far worse.
 
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
Don't make a decision based on a recent entry on a LT holding. Always deal with the chart that is front of you
View attachment 375140
So nothing particular concerning YET when looking at a long term chart. The stock clearly has resistance at 25, the 200 week avg right below it's current level will be the point to watch. It can dip below without a panic but if goes below and and doesn't recapture that will cause the 200 wk ma to start flattening out and then roll over. This we don't want. As a REIT it's interest rate sensitive. The move from Nov is now being challenged. CTRE pays over a 5% divy holdings like this only work if you have the patience to reinvest dividends and hold them for long periods of time. You want increasing dividends which it's providing. Start thinking about dips as opportunities to reinvest dividends at a favorable price.

You get into swing trading a LT dividend play is usually not going to work out. Feel bad cause I think I mentioned this one to you as far as liking Healthcare REITS more than retail/office reits in this environment. Back in June we were above the 20 day above the 50 and both where above the 200 now today all three of those things are now the opposite. Only you know if you hold too much of it, in a properly weighted portfolio I would show some more patience and watch the $20 range. Make sure you are reinvesting dividends.
Click to expand...
Don't feel bad about recommending something. You don't have a crystal ball and I don't have to follow the advice. Like I said, if I have to take a loss it's not a huge amount and I can write it off to taxes for the year. My individual stock investment levels are rounding errors in a single trade for some of the people in this thread.

As far as that chart, I'm in at 23.72. It was up for a bit, but only like a couple %. Now it's down double digits. It's how most things have gone for me: tiny fractions of a % gains if there are gains, and losses are multiple %'s very quickly that wipe out the previous gains and then some. If resistance is 25, then I really should have never bought it at that price since there's nowhere for the price to go. Even if the price holds completely steady and the dividend stays there at 5%, I'm at best breaking even with inflation if it's at 5% and at worst behind inflation by 4% if it's 9%. It just wasn't a good move at the price point I bought it at, plain and simple.

Meh. I'll probably just ride it out, but goddamn I hate the psychology behind all of this. It feels like you're playing a massive game 3 card monty, and if I ever did find someone doing that scam IRL I'd be sorely tempted to break their fingers badly enough that they could never do it again.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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One thing I will add is the Coronachan crash on 2020 really skewed the perception of percentages people look at with the markets. We see people discussing 2+% daily index moves as "meh". Before last year a 2% market move in a day was OMFG. Many market players seem to have adopted the volatility the last year and a half as "normal". I personally feel it is far from normal.
 
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Blazin

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Don't feel bad about recommending something. You don't have a crystal ball and I don't have to follow the advice. Like I said, if I have to take a loss it's not a huge amount and I can write it off to taxes for the year. My individual stock investment levels are rounding errors in a single trade for some of the people in this thread.

As far as that chart, I'm in at 23.72. It was up for a bit, but only like a couple %. Now it's down double digits. It's how most things have gone for me: tiny fractions of a % gains if there are gains, and losses are multiple %'s very quickly that wipe out the previous gains and then some. If resistance is 25, then I really should have never bought it at that price since there's nowhere for the price to go. Even if the price holds completely steady and the dividend stays there at 5%, I'm at best breaking even with inflation if it's at 5% and at worst behind inflation by 4% if it's 9%. It just wasn't a good move at the price point I bought it at, plain and simple.

Meh. I'll probably just ride it out, but goddamn I hate the psychology behind all of this. It feels like you're playing a massive game 3 card monty, and if I ever did find someone doing that scam IRL I'd be sorely tempted to break their fingers badly enough that they could never do it again.
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Well you knew at the time this summer that it wasn't a great time in general buying a market up 100% in the prior year. These weak periods are brutal but tend to be short.

Always think of the market as a person and all he does is each day give you a price he will pay. He is prone to some mood extremes. Don't let him play you. Just because he is in a mood today, the business you own are not fundamentally changing. Success is taking advantage of his moods not letting him suck you in to make choices against your interest.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Don't feel bad about recommending something. You don't have a crystal ball and I don't have to follow the advice. Like I said, if I have to take a loss it's not a huge amount and I can write it off to taxes for the year. My individual stock investment levels are rounding errors in a single trade for some of the people in this thread.

As far as that chart, I'm in at 23.72. It was up for a bit, but only like a couple %. Now it's down double digits. It's how most things have gone for me: tiny fractions of a % gains if there are gains, and losses are multiple %'s very quickly that wipe out the previous gains and then some. If resistance is 25, then I really should have never bought it at that price since there's nowhere for the price to go. Even if the price holds completely steady and the dividend stays there at 5%, I'm at best breaking even with inflation if it's at 5% and at worst behind inflation by 4% if it's 9%. It just wasn't a good move at the price point I bought it at, plain and simple.

Meh. I'll probably just ride it out, but goddamn I hate the psychology behind all of this. It feels like you're playing a massive game 3 card monty, and if I ever did find someone doing that scam IRL I'd be sorely tempted to break their fingers badly enough that they could never do it again.
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Here is my take on buying stocks and expectations in doing so. Vast majority of my portfolios are buy and hold or if a stock goes parabolic irrationally then I might sell to reap profit with the plan to re-enter when it returns to the mean.

This being my M.O., I look at support levels for entry prices and then I look at the 52-high and average analyst price targets. I use this to say to myself "I should make x% return over the next 12 months". I am always taking a new position from the aspect of "the next 12 months". If my expectation is 15-20% return in a year then after three months it only moving 4-5% is expected. Factoring in dividends paid is also part of the equation.

It may not be the most sophisticated plan but it's how I approach things.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Well you knew at the time this summer that it wasn't a great time in general buying a market up 100% in the prior year. These weak periods are brutal but tend to be short.

Always think of the market as a person and all he does is each day give you a price he will pay. He is prone to some mood extremes. Don't let him play you. Just because he is in a mood today, the business you own are not fundamentally changing. Success is taking advantage of his moods not letting him suck you in to make choices against your interest.
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This is honestly why I set my limit orders the way I do and don't chase stocks. I calculate the price I am willing to pay Mr. Market for his shares and he either take my price or he won't. I refuse to play his game.
 
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