Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I bought a bunch last year, HODLing for dear life.Hey jackass, maybe because I sold it at $260s like a retard!Thanks for the reminder though.
I regret not buying more GOOGL dammit.
Closing my LLY trade, keeping core position, 336 profit and 9% gain over the last couple of weeks.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I need this month to hurry up and end, this has now turned into best month this year, beating out the bounce off the tech wreck. I'm quite pleased with this I'm always happy with $20k months. Some numbers since Sanrith keeps calling me scrooge mcduck want to show totals are less exciting as all that.
$21,388.14 October 2021 vs $20,569.40 March 2021.
Have had 5 $20k+ months since covid low was super close to six hitting a $19.733.35 August 2020. Have had three negative months since covid low so not everything is rainbows and sunshine.
($628.06) October 2020
($1,859.30) January 2021
($622.47) September 2021*I did pretty much take this month off.
If anyone is curious it averages out to an avg profit of $11,366.78/mo. for the last two years. So it's not crazy money probably a paycheck for Cad . I have worked that up from about $1-2k/mo. when I first started trading full time and just steadily increased YoY.
I'm always tempted to throw my index money returns in there to see total investing/trading returns but I purposely avoid doing that. I really try to not think about the index money at all. I almost never touch it and just add $25k or so to it a year as it's my ballast. I can see it's effects when calculating monthly Net worth numbers but other than that do my best to completely ignore it.
I'd recommend to most that even if trading is doing well for you to keep passive index investing as part of your long term goals. I think I'm a better trader knowing that money is over there doing it's thing regardless of my performance, takes some pressure off which results in more clear headed decisions imo.
Not sure what I'm going to do next five years or so, I'm really enjoying just working on farm and I don't need the trade income. I'd expect to trade less in 2022 and 2023 but who knows if the market gets spicy I'll be there. Would like to keep pace at least but may halt growing for a bit or maybe some downsize. Spending a lot on house/barn/equipment so cash levels going to drop for awhile.
$21,388.14 October 2021 vs $20,569.40 March 2021.
Have had 5 $20k+ months since covid low was super close to six hitting a $19.733.35 August 2020. Have had three negative months since covid low so not everything is rainbows and sunshine.
($628.06) October 2020
($1,859.30) January 2021
($622.47) September 2021*I did pretty much take this month off.
If anyone is curious it averages out to an avg profit of $11,366.78/mo. for the last two years. So it's not crazy money probably a paycheck for Cad . I have worked that up from about $1-2k/mo. when I first started trading full time and just steadily increased YoY.
I'm always tempted to throw my index money returns in there to see total investing/trading returns but I purposely avoid doing that. I really try to not think about the index money at all. I almost never touch it and just add $25k or so to it a year as it's my ballast. I can see it's effects when calculating monthly Net worth numbers but other than that do my best to completely ignore it.
I'd recommend to most that even if trading is doing well for you to keep passive index investing as part of your long term goals. I think I'm a better trader knowing that money is over there doing it's thing regardless of my performance, takes some pressure off which results in more clear headed decisions imo.
Not sure what I'm going to do next five years or so, I'm really enjoying just working on farm and I don't need the trade income. I'd expect to trade less in 2022 and 2023 but who knows if the market gets spicy I'll be there. Would like to keep pace at least but may halt growing for a bit or maybe some downsize. Spending a lot on house/barn/equipment so cash levels going to drop for awhile.
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Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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How much capital do you think you utilized to get those 20k months?
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Blazin
Creative Title
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For the period my average cash utilization is around $500-600k/mo., I occasionally spike that up to $800k. When it does go higher that is usually just for 1-3 days. I'm pretty spot on picking bottoms so I tend to strike pretty hard and then ease off after the easier money is made.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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So I just checked and on larger options plays this year my avg hold was 6.6 days, it's actually being skewed higher by a 20 day hold on QQQ options in Feb/March many are 1-4 days. I'm currently working on a plan to use borrowed money for these plays. It could dramatically increase efficiency for me as the interest id pay for a few days use is negligible compared to the returns. Fear obviously is interest eating into returns when I'm forced to hold longer. My longest hold and most challenged trade in the last two years is 27 days, the market fought me on that one but still cleared $3k on it but I would have paid $2100 in interest.
It's why I've been holding off making this decision until I had years and years of data to then backcheck the effect of interest. That's just 1 and 0s the other issue will be if the mental aspect of using borrowed money will change my success rate.
It's why I've been holding off making this decision until I had years and years of data to then backcheck the effect of interest. That's just 1 and 0s the other issue will be if the mental aspect of using borrowed money will change my success rate.
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Question for the experts: how do you determine exit points if you're generally holding long term (1yr+)?
Like, I'm in UNP. If you're going by the Cramer playbook, the price target he had for it was 240, which we're now at. Does that mean I exit with the ~11% I've made on it and then wait for it to drop back to another entry, or does it mean I should keep holding for my timeframe and then reassess at that point? I'm not particularly bothered about this particular play, these are fairly small overall numbers I'm dealing with here, it's more the concepts involved in the strategies going forward.
Like, I'm in UNP. If you're going by the Cramer playbook, the price target he had for it was 240, which we're now at. Does that mean I exit with the ~11% I've made on it and then wait for it to drop back to another entry, or does it mean I should keep holding for my timeframe and then reassess at that point? I'm not particularly bothered about this particular play, these are fairly small overall numbers I'm dealing with here, it's more the concepts involved in the strategies going forward.
Blazin
Creative Title
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The only reason to exit a long term hold is because you believe the fundamental backdrop has changed. The company has lost a competitive edge or moved in a different direction for which you are not optimistic. You don't leave a LT hold over a price target. Look at its earnings once a year. Read or listen to the earnings calls, read ceo letter if they are making good choices and investments for the future and are executing then keep holding and reinvesting dividends. Price targets are for trading. In the bigger picture the market is a complicated machine that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient.
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Is anyone really and truly an "expert?" at the markets? It takes a lifetime of study, as a Mutual Fund Manager once told me in lecture.
I look at the price targets on tipranks, and look at the Analyst's track records and rankings. These are guys that follow the stock fulltime and have access to info that we don't. That does weigh into my decisions, but I do my own analysis. I have disagreed with the Analysts before and stuck to my guns.
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Well excuse me Captain Pedantic! How about "those more expert than me", is that better?
I'm busting your ass to the Grammar Gulag the next Grammar Nazi Thorsday we have, just mark my words!
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I really need a Trader Psychologist, a time machine, or a priest. Maybe all of the above.
I have some swing trades I made that I forgot about on paper trading that are up 25% in 30 days.
I posted these trades on here, LYV, MCS and NFLX. I got distracted, put too much in airlines and cruises and not here. I had a little NFLX and LYV and MCS were the paper trades.
Trading is fun; but some times I think it might drive me mad.
I have some swing trades I made that I forgot about on paper trading that are up 25% in 30 days.
I posted these trades on here, LYV, MCS and NFLX. I got distracted, put too much in airlines and cruises and not here. I had a little NFLX and LYV and MCS were the paper trades.
Trading is fun; but some times I think it might drive me mad.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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Seriously brother, this post is super helpful.
If you ever start a newsletter, I would totes subscribe. Not just for tasty tendies like MTTR, but for more about the journey into trading full time.
Living on a farm and trading is pretty much where I want to be in the next 10 - 20 years
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Like the book says, there is the Trader I Am, and the Trader I Want to Be. I made those trades on paper, what stopped me from making them in real life?
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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If I understand that correctly, it's saying we'll get a continuing bull through next May?
Sounds right from what I'm seeing. But after that we'll likely see a massive fall (assuming the tapering ends soon). We should be getting interest rate increases, inflation, and bear market all at once.
Should be a blast.
Sounds right from what I'm seeing. But after that we'll likely see a massive fall (assuming the tapering ends soon). We should be getting interest rate increases, inflation, and bear market all at once.
Should be a blast.
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