Investing General Discussion

Foler

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Tredge said:
The only thing I understand is that gold goes up in economic uncertainty. It's a data point.
But personally, I don't understand the rationale.
If we experience a collapse at that scale - who is going to accept gold as tender? Even the bullion experts have trouble sometimes identifying fake gold coins - especially with sophisticated fakes in circulation. Do you really think that an average citizen is going to just accept a gold coin? Also, how do you split it? Silver pieces? I just don't see a future where this is a functional currency anymore. After the disaster - sure, maybe. I guess people can buy it back safely. But during such an event, I think you would be better off hoarding cigarettes, lighters, fresh water, purifiers, etc.
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I’ll tell you what people will accept tender in that scenario - lead… The idea of holding gold as a physical asset for the apocalypse is retarded. If someone wants to hold assets for that go get L4 plates, lead, NODS, etc.
 
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Haus

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pwe said:
So, leaving bullets and flamethrowers aside, what do you guys think about Microsoft?
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An aging monolith which can't seem to come up with any actual new ideas. But large enough and thanks to Windows/Azure/Office365 entrenched enough it's probably not going anywhere in our lifetimes.

Oh, and I'm a big fan of the Surface Pros. Have one from 8 years ago that still just keeps chugging along.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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pwe said:
So, leaving bullets and flamethrowers aside, what do you guys think about Microsoft?
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Take a look at their financials. They are better than nearly every other company not named Apple. They have market control of multiple product lines. They have already been through the "you are a monopoly" game and came out on the other side.

Will they get you 50% a year like a growth stock? No. Can you own them and not have to look at them again for decades? Yes.
 
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pwe

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Take a look at their financials. They are better than nearly every other company not named Apple. They have market control of multiple product lines. They have already been through the "you are a monopoly" game and came out on the other side.

Will they get you 50% a year like a growth stock? No. Can you own them and not have to look at them again for decades? Yes.
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That was my thinking as well, they look very stable. But I’ve been surprised before…
 
Sanrith Descartes

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pwe said:
That was my thinking as well, they look very stable. But I’ve been surprised before…
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Their market cap is closer to 3 trillion than 2 trillion. And it's not because people "like" them. They were the evil empire long before some folks on this board were born. There is a reason.
 
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Rangoth

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So terrible manufacturing reports, terrible home sales data, debt, trade shit, and up we go!

it did look like a volume struggle though, was not a clear and strong bill run. I have no idea what to think of this market on a mid/long(2-6 month) scale. Daily it still seems pretty easy to ride the momentum, but I still need to exit quick. When shit turns it turns fast.

im waiting for some terrible news to pivot us back to the bottom or it will slowly creep up as people realize tariffs are not all bad and we are working our way out of a bad situation so stay the course.

anyway on Microsoft. I actually love azure and as stated above they are not going anywhere soon. They are losing a bit on the AI battle(theirs blows) but I have two companies using azure and even if I wanted to switch it would take me 2 months MIN and more likely 4-6 to switch to AWS or something else like google. And I wouldn’t do it for 10% savings because id spend 10x that in dev/IT resources to make the switch. I’m not sure I’d hold for “decades” but we are getting into semantics. It’s a damn good place to put your money for the next few years
 
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Haus

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Rangoth said:
anyway on Microsoft. I actually love azure and as stated above they are not going anywhere soon. They are losing a bit on the AI battle(theirs blows) but I have two companies using azure and even if I wanted to switch it would take me 2 months MIN and more likely 4-6 to switch to AWS or something else like google. And I wouldn’t do it for 10% savings because id spend 10x that in dev/IT resources to make the switch. I’m not sure I’d hold for “decades” but we are getting into semantics. It’s a damn good place to put your money for the next few years
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Oh yeah, the standing MSFT strategy is that once you're in with them (on the Azure side, or on the app side with an E5 license) you just get so much inertial sapping that you can't even justify moving off/away from them. They have mastered that sales strategy which is referred to as "Total account capture".
 
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Foler

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pwe said:
So, leaving bullets and flamethrowers aside, what do you guys think about Microsoft?
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Azure has a decent market share of cloud. Some AI potential in their product portfolio. No idea on their other products. I was/am looking at holding some in the future to round out my AI portfolio. I’ll say they’re kinda low on my list to acquire. I’d take AMZN before them.
 
Foler

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Rangoth said:
So terrible manufacturing reports, terrible home sales data, debt, trade shit, and up we go!

it did look like a volume struggle though, was not a clear and strong bill run. I have no idea what to think of this market on a mid/long(2-6 month) scale. Daily it still seems pretty easy to ride the momentum, but I still need to exit quick. When shit turns it turns fast.

im waiting for some terrible news to pivot us back to the bottom or it will slowly creep up as people realize tariffs are not all bad and we are working our way out of a bad situation so stay the course.

anyway on Microsoft. I actually love azure and as stated above they are not going anywhere soon. They are losing a bit on the AI battle(theirs blows) but I have two companies using azure and even if I wanted to switch it would take me 2 months MIN and more likely 4-6 to switch to AWS or something else like google. And I wouldn’t do it for 10% savings because id spend 10x that in dev/IT resources to make the switch. I’m not sure I’d hold for “decades” but we are getting into semantics. It’s a damn good place to put your money for the next few years
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One or two companies are looking/engineering into the new philosophy of multi cloud and being able to pipe your data out to third parties. Be on the lookout for these 1-2 companies. Customers REALLY want this option and flexibility.
 
Rangoth

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Do people still watch SPACs here? There is a CLBR ticker that I am getting curious about, considering far out calls or even shares.

It's "Grab a Gun" which is online gun retailer, with all the usual 2nd amendment, American pride, etc. What makes it a bit interesting is that Trump Jr. just put on the board of directors. I'm guessing it will have a bit of that MAGA pump when it launches. Almost like the DJT went to nearly 100$ after launch(and obviously to settle far below that). It's basically a bet on politics/branding and being pushed by MAGA.

I wouldn't go crazy, maybe 25k in options or something.
 
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13:52 *(US) US Commerce Sec Lutnick: Have a trade deal done but waiting on PM and Parliament approval - CNBC
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Trimmed some of the AMD I had added at the lows. 20% gain on the shares and I was overweight on it. Its running in to overhead resistance and got pushed back the last time.
 
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tugofpeace

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Sanrith Descartes said:
You hate to see it.

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I sold out of BROS (Dutch Bros Coffee) last year at a loss by making gains elsewhere because that stock was stuck in the $20-40 range for years after the interest rate hikes. Once Trump was elected, after it's earnings, it somehow spiked all the way to $85 or so. Completely ridiculous.

Point is, it's trading at around $65 right now and if Starbucks missed earnings, I'm tempted to buy puts on BROS, especially because it's a low float ticker that has the potential to make huge moves after earnings.

The way BROS has moved recently is ridiculous, hardly any reaction to tariffs and negative overall consumer sentiment.

I might have to look into their expected guidance last year but although tariffs likely wouldn't affect them directly unless they source their coffee beans from a tariffed country, the effect of tariffs on other discretionary consumer goods and food items would likely reduce their profits in the future.. who has time for $8 coffee when the price of everything else is rising?

Edit: Looking at SBUX the price hasn't moved because of CEO comments.. lmao. Market is operating on pure hopium
 
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