Is the Democratic party still a relevant political party?

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khorum

khorum

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Xarpolis said:
Realistically, the majority of the country is way more democratic than republican. If Trump had not won this election, the Republican party would need a complete overhaul. It still does because the majority of their representatives aren't sympathetic to the cause. Dems will (almost) always beat them. That's why the only candidates that ever run for office in CA are Dem and only Dem.
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Except the dems' problems are systemic. It's impossible to overstate how much shit the democratic party is in right now.

Any comparisons to the GOP post 2008 is totally flawed. Despite losing majorities in congress after 2008, the GOP still had a commanding lead in the ALL-IMPORTANT gubernatorial and state legislatures throughout the states.

Remember the hullabaloo about Rahm Emanuel and Obama internalizing the Census Bureau for 2010? That's because they recognized the threat to their coalitions that the GOP's local victories posed to REDISTRICTING. That's the real groundgame in the electoral world: Republican state governments GERRYMANDERING the congressional and county districts mitigated and often negated the supposed "demographic advantage" the left depends on. There are congressional districts in Chicago that are 94% affluent white families---made possible by algorithmically selected neighborhoods meticulously threaded to exclude unwanted voting blocs... we're talking folding@home-tier artwork here:

District-4.jpg


So when people say that the dems can crawl back in the same way the GOP, bear in mind that was only possible because the GOP already had a generation-long state and county apparatus that made their time in the wilderness short and largely productive.

Not so with the democrats.

Not only did the GOP hold the Senate and their majority in the house... the GOP actually INCREASED their grip on state governments. Fully 34 of 50 governor mansions are now under GOP control---a historical record. Over two thirds of all state legislatures are now GOP controlled and in 24 states---almost half of the union---all three branches of the state governments are fully controlled by the GOP.

A few years ago a real and remarkably plausible plan to reform the electoral college system came into being called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Basically it's a bill that only needs to pass in enough states whose EC votes total 271 in order to effectively render the presidential election a popular vote. It's actually passed at around 165 EC's or something but it's unlikely to ever get beyond that unless the GOP are reduced to something like 12 governors and 18 legislatures. There's practically zero chance of that happening in the next few cycles---the GOP still have governors in blue states and have grown their control on state legislatures there.

So all those things everyone wants to happen? Constitutional Amendments? Filibuster-proof supermajorities? That all inevitably comes down to which voters are represented in which districts and that comes down to HOW those districts are drawn---and as of now, in 34 of the 50 states, those districts are drawn by people who will disperse latino, black, lgbtq and muslim voters to never rise above a level to risk their encumbencies.
 
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iannis

iannis

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How can you call that plausible? Why even have an EC when the vote is determined by direct democracy? The EC is irrelevant at that point. That's not reform, that's repeal.

I suppose it's plausible in the way that rural areas will grow at a greater pace in the next generations than current urban ones, and that seems to be the bet that powerbrokers are making. That their constituency will go wider than the others can go tall.

That's a step too far for me. If you're going to monkey with the EC then it would be more straightforward to redistrict and ADD congressional districts. Review the cap. Technology allows us that luxury. That will favor higher population densities. Which I happen to think should be encouraged more than suburban sprawl.

Atlanta is fucking horrible. However, urban decay in a larger, more compact city than atlanta should be (SHOULD be) easier to address in a systemic governmental fashion than decay would be in the monster atlanta is becoming.
 
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khorum

khorum

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Well it's the MOST plausible since it doesn't require a constitutional amendment---which would be even less plausible under the GOP's control of state governments. It's been percolating through a couple dozen state legislatures since it came up back in 2006 or something and they've managed to have a 165 electoral votes pass it.

Yes it's basically an end-run around the constitutional requirements for reforming the electoral college, but it's an elegant and fairly doable way to do it. But it's only doable if the democrats weren't so totally up shit's creek when it came to state government control.

I should add that even in those states that DON'T have a GOP governor or state assembly, only SEVEN have a government that isn't impeded by republican majorities in the either chamber or the judiciary. And yes those are the states that passed the Interstate compact.

I mentioned it as a example as one of those things that are more closely affected by local elections than national ones. Incidentally, it's also sensitive to redistricting everytime the census shifts the districts around.

Come 2020, unless the GOP suffer a catastrophic loss in the midterms, the entire process of redistricting will be written by a full GOP-controlled census and more than two thirds of the state governments under GOP control.
 
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iannis

iannis

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Well, that's true. It probably is more plausible than redistricting congress. Scratch probably.
 
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khorum

khorum

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Looks like I was wrong. There are only FIVE states under full Democrat control now. I'm not sure how they'd go about repealing the Interstate Compact though, or even if they'd want to. It was bipartisan when it first came out.

As far as the Dem's prospects after 2016, this is stunning. Like I mentioned the GOP was able to recover after 2008 because their state and local apparatus remained largely intact. In fact their county commissioner count went up back then.

This year the Dem's were literally decimated. The long-running goal of pushing dems out of schoolboards might actually realize school vouchers for inner city public schools.

 
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Rafterman

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Xarpolis said:
Realistically, the majority of the country is way more democratic than republican.
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I've seen this repeated multiple times, but I'm not sure it's accurate. Everything I've seen seems to show that there isn't much difference in the size of the two parties and that independent voters are what sways the elections back and forth.
 
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ZyyzYzzy

ZyyzYzzy

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Or trying to divide people's values and political views into 2 groups is dumb and nit actually representative of anything.
 
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khorum

khorum

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Rafterman said:
I've seen this repeated multiple times, but I'm not sure it's accurate. Everything I've seen seems to show that there isn't much difference in the size of the two parties and that independent voters are what sways the elections back and forth.
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That's true.... but most independents are usually disaffected Republicans (and they vote that way).
 
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mkopec

mkopec

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Xalara said:
That's the problem, the jobs aren't coming back period. The factories might come back but they'll be full of automated robots.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have admitted to this. The closest a politician came to admitting this was Obama earlier this year.

That said, something needs to be done about the rust belt. However, the sooner we admit the jobs aren't coming back the sooner we can start working on real solutions.

Edit: I should add that today it's the rust belt, but tomorrow it'll be truck drivers and fast food workers. Hell not even lawyers and doctors are safe from automation.
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False and wrong on so many levels. Factories are not moving to mexico because they have cheaper robots you fool, but cheaper labor and no epa regulations breathing down their necks.
 
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Kreugen

Kreugen

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Taking a dive and letting a black man become President is the greatest trick the GOP ever pulled.

The retaliation from angry white men was swift and without mercy. And quite possibly unrecoverable, with a bit of help from demographics.

Remember when they threatened to saw off giant red chunks of blue states until the senate is redder than China's flag? North California yo.
 
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Xalara

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I never said that the factories aren't going to come back. I said that the jobs won't be returning.
 
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TrollfaceDeux

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Kreugen said:
Taking a dive and letting a black man become President is the greatest trick the GOP ever pulled.

The retaliation from angry white men was swift and without mercy. And quite possibly unrecoverable, with a bit of help from demographics.

Remember when they threatened to saw off giant red chunks of blue states until the senate is redder than China's flag? North California yo.
Click to expand...
that is not what happened bro.

what happened to you, bro.
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Kreugen said:
Taking a dive and letting a black man become President is the greatest trick the GOP ever pulled.

The retaliation from angry white men was swift and without mercy. And quite possibly unrecoverable, with a bit of help from demographics.

Remember when they threatened to saw off giant red chunks of blue states until the senate is redder than China's flag? North California yo.
Click to expand...

So was reelection in 2012 part of this genius plan?
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Mario Speedwagon said:
White people went deep cover by voting Obama into office twice just to trick liberals. OPERATION WHITELASH: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
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ohh I thought we were just under cover. Didn't get the memo about DEEP cover. Fuuuuu
 
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TrollfaceDeux

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khorum said:
Except the dems' problems are systemic. It's impossible to overstate how much shit the democratic party is in right now.

Any comparisons to the GOP post 2008 is totally flawed. Despite losing majorities in congress after 2008, the GOP still had a commanding lead in the ALL-IMPORTANT gubernatorial and state legislatures throughout the states.

Remember the hullabaloo about Rahm Emanuel and Obama internalizing the Census Bureau for 2010? That's because they recognized the threat to their coalitions that the GOP's local victories posed to REDISTRICTING. That's the real groundgame in the electoral world: Republican state governments GERRYMANDERING the congressional and county districts mitigated and often negated the supposed "demographic advantage" the left depends on. There are congressional districts in Chicago that are 94% affluent white families---made possible by algorithmically selected neighborhoods meticulously threaded to exclude unwanted voting blocs... we're talking folding@home-tier artwork here:

View attachment 98311

So when people say that the dems can crawl back in the same way the GOP, bear in mind that was only possible because the GOP already had a generation-long state and county apparatus that made their time in the wilderness short and largely productive.

Not so with the democrats.

Not only did the GOP hold the Senate and their majority in the house... the GOP actually INCREASED their grip on state governments. Fully 34 of 50 governor mansions are now under GOP control---a historical record. Over two thirds of all state legislatures are now GOP controlled and in 24 states---almost half of the union---all three branches of the state governments are fully controlled by the GOP.

A few years ago a real and remarkably plausible plan to reform the electoral college system came into being called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Basically it's a bill that only needs to pass in enough states whose EC votes total 271 in order to effectively render the presidential election a popular vote. It's actually passed at around 165 EC's or something but it's unlikely to ever get beyond that unless the GOP are reduced to something like 12 governors and 18 legislatures. There's practically zero chance of that happening in the next few cycles---the GOP still have governors in blue states and have grown their control on state legislatures there.

So all those things everyone wants to happen? Constitutional Amendments? Filibuster-proof supermajorities? That all inevitably comes down to which voters are represented in which districts and that comes down to HOW those districts are drawn---and as of now, in 34 of the 50 states, those districts are drawn by people who will disperse latino, black, lgbtq and muslim voters to never rise above a level to risk their encumbencies.
Click to expand...
fucking republicans playing it right....

DNC is in deep shit...
 
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