OK fuckers, it's been a long time so I'll just remind you before I start: Go against my picks and then send me a small percentage of your near guaranteed winnings.
UFC 166
Cain Velasquezvs Junior dos Santos
Cain is a fucking mauler, there's no two ways about it. If there was zero threat of a takedown JDS would have the advantage, but there's ALWAYS the threat and he has to account for that. The great equalizer on the feet. And when it gets off the feet Cain is more comfortable than any HW since Fedor in his prime. He has no fear or submissions because his base is so strong and if it goes beyond two rounds he WILL be stronger than his opponent. I love JDS, he seems like the nicest guy in the world, but I have to pick Cain by ref stoppage in the 4th. JDS comes out of this one looking
just as bad as the last one.BTW, Cain is the older fighter here by over 2 years.
Daniel Cormiervs. Roy Nelson
Cormier is faster and a way better wrestler. There's no reason to think he'll let Roy land that one big shot that is his best chance.
It's weird to say because it works pretty well for him, but Roy has a bit of Jorge Gurgel/Andy Wang syndrome. He's a legit world class BJJ black belt but he only seems to use that BJJ defensively or to set up GnP. I'm not sure if it's just because he has shit takedowns or what, but he hasn't submitted anyone in MMA since
2006. Subbed 4of his first 6 opponents(sub to punches doesn't count), and none since. So yeah, he's got 1 clear advantage over Cormier(1 punch power) and 1 possible advantage(BJJ) and he doesn't use one of them. This adds up to a 3 round mauling by Cormier for the decision.
Gilbert Melendezvs. Diego Sanchez
Similar fighters. Both push the pace, have decent striking, and usually have great gas tanks. Gil's striking is cleaner and his wrestling is stronger, Diego's submissions are better except much like Roy he doesn't really commit to them much. Keep in mind though for almost all fighters they get fewer submissions the higher they climb the ladder. There's so many great BJJ coaches out there that almost everyone has really tight BJJ defense. Anyways, they beat the shit out of each other on the feet, but Gil's superior striking wins out and he gets the decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs.
Shawn Jordan
I'm banking on kickboxer Gabe showing up and getting put to sleep before he gets the chance to wake up and use his grappling. He doesn't have a great chin, and Jordan hits hard. I don't see Gonzaga getting the fight to the ground unscathed, and that should be all Jordan needs. Jordan is really dangerous in close and that's where Gabe tends to try to fight because of his size, it's gonna backfire here. 1st round KO for Jordan.
Tim Boetschvs.CB Dollaway
Before his stint on TUF 5 years I had Dollaway pegged as a future title contender in the UFC, but he's never seemed to step up his game like some guys do. He's 30 now and it seems clear he's climbed the UFC ladder as high as he's going to. Boetsch isn't going to be challenging for the belt any time soon either, but he's fought better competition and fared better against them. Dollaway's striking has a bad habit of leaving him open and even in wins he seems to eat some big shots. Tim Boetsch is really good at pouncing once he has an opening so I'm gonna say him by 2nd round TKO.
John Dodson vs.
Darrell Montague
Who? He's only 3% on the fight picker! Yeah, that's because he wasn't on TUF and it's his first UFC fight. He's a legit top 5-10 pubeweight or whatever they call 125. He beat pretty much everyone in Tachi Palace Fights(the main home for the weight class previously) except Ian McCall. He's a better technical striker than Dodson and he's a better grappler than Dodson. We've got this inflated sense of how good Dodson is because he went on a nice run and we're not used to seeing 125 guys KO people. Well he's got 1 more KO than Montague in 5 more fights, and he's 4 years older. Yeah, Darrell Montague, remember the name. Decision because these guys are slightly bigger than one of my testicles. Of course Dodson could end it with one punch=P
Nate Marquardt vs.
Hector Lombard
Both guys tend to gas out, Lombard has the better chin, pick him by late KO. Late 2nd or 3rd. Hector talks about how he doesn't care how he wins, but he tends to try to finish fights. I'm guessing after losing by decision his last fight he'll be even more eager to put it away. Nate's on the way out I think. He seems completely reliant on landing a big shot now to set up his finishes, like he's lost the speed or wrestling required to FORCE openings. Lombard only loses by decision, and I don't see Nate being able to avoid enough damage from him to get there. I'd kind of like to be wrong.
Tony Fergusonvs. Mike Rio
I don't feel very strongly on this one. Ferguson is the better technical guy so I lean his way. He's been out for over a year, but he always seemed like a really hard worker so I don't expect ring rust to be an issue. Ferguson by decision, but don't be stunned it Rio sneaks in a submission win. He seemed pretty click with them.
Sarah Kaufmanvs. Jessica Eye
I'd go towards Eye except I think she's gonna get worn out by Kaufman's superior strength. That's it. Kaufman by split decision. If Eye was a more aggressive submission artist I'd go the other way, Kaufman's BJJ defense is somewhat lacking.
George Sotiropoulos vs.
KJ Noons
Holy shit, these guys have combined to lose 8 of their last 9 fights. This is a tough one, George sucks at controlling where the fight goes but KJ doesn't seem to give a shit in the cage anymore. I've changed my pick 3 times but I'm going with KJ I guess. This fight plays right to his strengths. Sotiropoulos often can't or doesn't really try to get the fight to the ground where he has the advantage over almost anyone. KJ has decent takedown and BJJ defense. I think he's gonna beat George up pretty bad here, just can't decide if he'll get the finish. I'll say 3rd round TKO. Hope George likes the incoming Bellator contract offer, and actually I hope he gets one.
Anthony Waldburgervs. Adlan Amagov
TJ Waldburger! Here's a motherfucker not afraid to attack with BJJ. Amagov tends to be in entertaining fights, I'm kind of banking on him getting caught in a scramble here. He could very easily win by KO at any minute, but I like aggressive submission artists so fuck it, TJ by sub in the 1st. Put even less weight on this suggestion than the rest.
Jeremy Larsen vs.
Andre Fili
I think I might have seen Fili on InsideMMA highlights before. Maybe. Whatever, Larsen blows. Fili by KO in the 1st. Sherdog says he's an Alpha Male fighter and they've been on a roll since Bang started coaching there.
Dustin Pague vs.
Kyoji Horiguchi
Fairly confident I've never seen Horiguchi fight, but Pague sucks. Horiguchi has beaten Ian Loveland and Ishiwatari so I guess he knows how to fight. Plus he fights out of Krazy Bee gym and I've seen a lot of their fighters put on really entertaining fights. So Horiguchi by decision.
There you go, now you don't even need to watch the event since you know how everything will turn out.