No reason Nate can't win if he fights smart like he did against Michael Johnson. He's got a pretty huge size advantage, both weight and reach, and he knows how to use his jab. He's not bad in the clinch either.
When I try and think about this fight logically I come down to a near 50/50 fight that hinges entirely on which guy can control his tendencies and fight to exploit the other guy's disadvantages. Which is obviously the case in most fair fights but there's very specific stuff going on in this one.. If Conor loads up on the leg kicks that Nate is prone to just absorbing, traditional style not the lateral/push stuff he loves so much, he's in god shape. Nate will get frustrated and fight dumber and leave himself open to more. Flipside is the Nate size advantage obviously.