The US is not going to default on its debt. The Treasury will just ignore the debt ceiling and Obama can always claim it would be unconstitutional not to pay the bills. 14th amendment:
poll: will the us dollar be replaced as the world's reserve currency?
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Eventually it will be replaced by a basket of currencies. I don't think people understand just how insulated we are to inflation with the entire world pricing commodities we don't produce in our currency.
Regardless how slow that bubble pops the effect will be devastating.
Regardless how slow that bubble pops the effect will be devastating.
jeffvader
it's only castles burning
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article from sunday's ft:
The dollar has no imminent rival as the global reserve currency. America?s ?exorbitant privilege?, worth 80 to 100 basis points in lower borrowing costs, would survive a temporary default. Yet fresh evidence of US capacity for self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies. Between 2000 and 2012, the dollar?s share of global reserves fell from 70.5 per cent to 63.1 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the US share of global trade fell from 15.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent. In the past five years the renminbi has supplanted the dollar as east Asia?s ?dominant reference currency?, says the Peterson Institute?s Arvind Subramanian, who has found that the average movement between Asia?s seven largest currencies and the renminbi is now 60 per cent greater than with the dollar. These have nothing to do Washington?s dysfunction.
entire article:
The dollar has no imminent rival as the global reserve currency. America?s ?exorbitant privilege?, worth 80 to 100 basis points in lower borrowing costs, would survive a temporary default. Yet fresh evidence of US capacity for self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies. Between 2000 and 2012, the dollar?s share of global reserves fell from 70.5 per cent to 63.1 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the US share of global trade fell from 15.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent. In the past five years the renminbi has supplanted the dollar as east Asia?s ?dominant reference currency?, says the Peterson Institute?s Arvind Subramanian, who has found that the average movement between Asia?s seven largest currencies and the renminbi is now 60 per cent greater than with the dollar. These have nothing to do Washington?s dysfunction.
entire article:
September 22, 2013 6:30 pm
Congress is putting the future of the dollar in peril
Edward Luce By Edward Luce
Fresh evidence of US self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies
Bond markets are unfazed about the chances of a US debt default next month, when the national debt is once again expected to bump up against the limit set by Congress. Yet US politics is in worse shape than in the build-up to the debt ceiling crisis of August 2011. That brush with disaster is becoming an annual event. Each time Congress plays chicken with the debt ceiling, it toys with the dollar?s reserve status. Should Congress miscalculate, America?s standing with creditors would take a big hit. The chances are that crisis will be avoided. But nobody, least of all the kamikazes who want to provoke default, should misunderstand the stakes.
There are more reasons to worry this time round. First, Capitol Hill?s calendar is unusually hazardous during a phase when the political climate is even more irascible than normal. As luck would have it, Congress?s mid-October deadline to raise the debt ceiling coincides with a probable budget crisis next week. Unless Congress passes a clean ?continuing resolution? ? a bill that would renew the next fiscal year?s budget at last year?s level ? the US government will shut down. The deadline is midnight next Monday.
Last Friday the Republican-controlled House passed a bill linking that approval to the defunding of President Barack Obama?s healthcare law, which goes into effect on October 1. There is no chance the Democratic Senate will pass the ?defund Obamacare? bill. Even if it did, Mr Obama would veto it. Healthcare reform was enacted more than three years ago and has survived multiple challenges. It is Mr Obama?s most prized legacy. He is surely sincere in his threat to veto anything that would undo it.
By itself, a temporarily shuttered US government would not be a disaster. Washington?s last full-blown shutdown in 1995 did not hinder the US economy?s longest postwar expansion. But nor did it coincide with a battle over the debt ceiling. Congress has inured itself to budget crises over the years. It is now becoming perilously cavalier about US creditworthiness. Should senior Republican leaders feel pressurised to join with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown next week, their party?s fury will transfer to the debt ceiling two weeks later.
Second, the Republican leadership is weaker than it was in 2011. Two years ago, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, helped avert a meltdown by allowing Mr Obama to raise the debt ceiling at the eleventh hour. This time he is facing a tough primary challenge from a Tea Party rival. Self-preservation will stop him from being part of the solution.
John Boehner, the House speaker, is regarded by most of his troops as a ?Rino?, a Republican in name only, making him a leader in name only. The hapless speaker recently asked reporters for suggestions about how to control his caucus. ?Do you guys have any ideas?? he asked. A group of House Republicans has already drafted a bill to delay ?Obamacare? for a year in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Mr Boehner is reduced to following the crowd.
Third, many people underestimate the impact of a US default. This enables pro-default Republicans to avoid dwelling on the huge risk they are taking. The last big US market crash was in September 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Far from punishing the dollar, there was a global flight to safety. US Treasury yields also fell after Standard & Poor?s downgraded the US?s sovereign credit rating in 2011. Whenever America screws up, the markets reward it. Why should the next crisis prove any different?
Nobody can be sure. But even if the default were purely technical ? if Social Security cheques were stopped but bondholders continued to be paid ? it would be the first in the history of the republic. The debt battle comes at a time when much of the world is bubbling with frustration at the US dollar. Having complained for years about the spillover from the US Federal Reserve?s quantitative easing, emerging markets have, since June, switched to panic about its impending tapering. Last week Ben Bernanke, Fed chair, unexpectedly stayed the jitters by postponing the taper. On top of concerns about the slowing US jobs market, he cited ?fiscal uncertainty?, which includes the risk of a debt crisis.
More video
The dollar has no imminent rival as the global reserve currency. America?s ?exorbitant privilege?, worth 80 to 100 basis points in lower borrowing costs, would survive a temporary default. Yet fresh evidence of US capacity for self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies. Between 2000 and 2012, the dollar?s share of global reserves fell from 70.5 per cent to 63.1 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the US share of global trade fell from 15.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent. In the past five years the renminbi has supplanted the dollar as east Asia?s ?dominant reference currency?, says the Peterson Institute?s Arvind Subramanian, who has found that the average movement between Asia?s seven largest currencies and the renminbi is now 60 per cent greater than with the dollar. These have nothing to do Washington?s dysfunction.
Nobody questions America?s ability to service its debts now or in the future. But there are nagging doubts about its willingness. Congress will probably avoid triggering a default next month. But the odds deteriorate with time. What about next year and the one after that? When you play with matches, sooner or later there will be an accident.
Congress is putting the future of the dollar in peril
Edward Luce By Edward Luce
Fresh evidence of US self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies
Bond markets are unfazed about the chances of a US debt default next month, when the national debt is once again expected to bump up against the limit set by Congress. Yet US politics is in worse shape than in the build-up to the debt ceiling crisis of August 2011. That brush with disaster is becoming an annual event. Each time Congress plays chicken with the debt ceiling, it toys with the dollar?s reserve status. Should Congress miscalculate, America?s standing with creditors would take a big hit. The chances are that crisis will be avoided. But nobody, least of all the kamikazes who want to provoke default, should misunderstand the stakes.
There are more reasons to worry this time round. First, Capitol Hill?s calendar is unusually hazardous during a phase when the political climate is even more irascible than normal. As luck would have it, Congress?s mid-October deadline to raise the debt ceiling coincides with a probable budget crisis next week. Unless Congress passes a clean ?continuing resolution? ? a bill that would renew the next fiscal year?s budget at last year?s level ? the US government will shut down. The deadline is midnight next Monday.
Last Friday the Republican-controlled House passed a bill linking that approval to the defunding of President Barack Obama?s healthcare law, which goes into effect on October 1. There is no chance the Democratic Senate will pass the ?defund Obamacare? bill. Even if it did, Mr Obama would veto it. Healthcare reform was enacted more than three years ago and has survived multiple challenges. It is Mr Obama?s most prized legacy. He is surely sincere in his threat to veto anything that would undo it.
By itself, a temporarily shuttered US government would not be a disaster. Washington?s last full-blown shutdown in 1995 did not hinder the US economy?s longest postwar expansion. But nor did it coincide with a battle over the debt ceiling. Congress has inured itself to budget crises over the years. It is now becoming perilously cavalier about US creditworthiness. Should senior Republican leaders feel pressurised to join with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown next week, their party?s fury will transfer to the debt ceiling two weeks later.
Second, the Republican leadership is weaker than it was in 2011. Two years ago, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, helped avert a meltdown by allowing Mr Obama to raise the debt ceiling at the eleventh hour. This time he is facing a tough primary challenge from a Tea Party rival. Self-preservation will stop him from being part of the solution.
John Boehner, the House speaker, is regarded by most of his troops as a ?Rino?, a Republican in name only, making him a leader in name only. The hapless speaker recently asked reporters for suggestions about how to control his caucus. ?Do you guys have any ideas?? he asked. A group of House Republicans has already drafted a bill to delay ?Obamacare? for a year in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Mr Boehner is reduced to following the crowd.
Third, many people underestimate the impact of a US default. This enables pro-default Republicans to avoid dwelling on the huge risk they are taking. The last big US market crash was in September 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Far from punishing the dollar, there was a global flight to safety. US Treasury yields also fell after Standard & Poor?s downgraded the US?s sovereign credit rating in 2011. Whenever America screws up, the markets reward it. Why should the next crisis prove any different?
Nobody can be sure. But even if the default were purely technical ? if Social Security cheques were stopped but bondholders continued to be paid ? it would be the first in the history of the republic. The debt battle comes at a time when much of the world is bubbling with frustration at the US dollar. Having complained for years about the spillover from the US Federal Reserve?s quantitative easing, emerging markets have, since June, switched to panic about its impending tapering. Last week Ben Bernanke, Fed chair, unexpectedly stayed the jitters by postponing the taper. On top of concerns about the slowing US jobs market, he cited ?fiscal uncertainty?, which includes the risk of a debt crisis.
More video
The dollar has no imminent rival as the global reserve currency. America?s ?exorbitant privilege?, worth 80 to 100 basis points in lower borrowing costs, would survive a temporary default. Yet fresh evidence of US capacity for self-harm would hasten diversification to other currencies. Between 2000 and 2012, the dollar?s share of global reserves fell from 70.5 per cent to 63.1 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the US share of global trade fell from 15.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent. In the past five years the renminbi has supplanted the dollar as east Asia?s ?dominant reference currency?, says the Peterson Institute?s Arvind Subramanian, who has found that the average movement between Asia?s seven largest currencies and the renminbi is now 60 per cent greater than with the dollar. These have nothing to do Washington?s dysfunction.
Nobody questions America?s ability to service its debts now or in the future. But there are nagging doubts about its willingness. Congress will probably avoid triggering a default next month. But the odds deteriorate with time. What about next year and the one after that? When you play with matches, sooner or later there will be an accident.
