Survivor

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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,426
129,711
It still doesn't make sense to vote Debbie. Now you're down a vote AND they still have the idol. The idol needs to be flushed out as soon as possible, and now they're kind of screwed. They've lost their numbers and they CAN'T flush it out now.

The only way it works now is if you flip someone because "they're going to ride that idol to the end." In fact, the more I think about it, for this vote they absolutely had to flush out the idol. It was the only play.
 
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,457
4,345
Elurin_sl said:
...
The only way it works now is if you flip someone because "they're going to ride that idol to the end." In fact, the more I think about it, for this vote they absolutely had to flush out the idol. It was the only play.
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You're absolutely right, logically speaking. However, most players are thinking selfish at this stage of the game. They do not want to risk their chance of being sent home vs an idol play. It's a gamble. It's needed to get it flushed out and taken out of play, but that could very well be at your own expense. Their thinking is probably the fact that Debbie is an easy vote and it buys them another week. That's a week to try and shake things up and make changes or possibly even win individual immunity.
 
elcaro1101

elcaro1101

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
2,198
5,368
Elurin_sl said:
It still doesn't make sense to vote Debbie. Now you're down a vote AND they still have the idol. The idol needs to be flushed out as soon as possible, and now they're kind of screwed. They've lost their numbers and they CAN'T flush it out now.

The only way it works now is if you flip someone because "they're going to ride that idol to the end." In fact, the more I think about it, for this vote they absolutely had to flush out the idol. It was the only play.
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This for sure.

If you are going against somebody that goes full aggro, you need to get the confrontation over quick. The guys went aggro, and the girls didn't call their bluff, and will be a huge mistake IMO. I think they gave the second half-idol to Tai, just to reinforce that they could vote after votes were read if they needed to. As said by somebody else , I think Tai will give the idol back.
 
elcaro1101

elcaro1101

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
2,198
5,368
Soygen_sl said:
vqMOTbo.jpg
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Right, and I get Tuconots negged for posting a video of some drunk blonde twitch streamer saying kids with cancer should die. Neg had the message: "you're kinda creepy".
 
BrutulTM

BrutulTM

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
<Silver Donator>
14,671
2,529
Elurin_sl said:
It still doesn't make sense to vote Debbie. Now you're down a vote AND they still have the idol. The idol needs to be flushed out as soon as possible, and now they're kind of screwed. They've lost their numbers and they CAN'T flush it out now.

The only way it works now is if you flip someone because "they're going to ride that idol to the end." In fact, the more I think about it, for this vote they absolutely had to flush out the idol. It was the only play.
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If this was a team game you would be correct but it's not. Cydney and Aubrey don't get shit for getting voted off to flush the idol. They're not trying to do what's best for their alliance, they're trying to win the game and that means not getting voted out at tonight's tribal so you can do something to try not to get voted out at the next one. Staying ahead with the numbers doesn't mean shit if you're the one that gets voted out.
 
Djay

Djay

Trakanon Raider
2,308
359
Even playing as an individual, the proper move is to take your chances when you're up 6-3 when you have a 1/6 chance of being voted out and then the idol is out of the game. The longer you wait, the greater the odds you're the one they target. At some point you lose the number advantage and your individual chance of winning.

Of course there's something to be said for living another day and hoping the game changes, but you need to be realistic, too...are you going to end up being protected by that idol? Sure, maybe you can convince the boys that you're better to keep than all the other girls, but the only way they do that is if you're such a shit player that nobody would ever vote for you even on a bitter jury anyway. Even then, you're 5th behind Julia probably.

Nobody wants to pick rocks, but that alternative is better than losing the majority without even flushing the idol. It's the correct move. The problem is convincing everyone it's the correct move.
 
BrutulTM

BrutulTM

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
<Silver Donator>
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It's not a 1/6 chance if you're Aubrey or Cydney. It was going to be one of them and they didn't know which. This game changes completely between tribals and we could see that in the next episode. People on the internet always assume that the momentum is going to stay where it is and sometimes it does but staying in the game for another tribal can change everything. For all we know Aubrey or Cydney's best move is sitting next to Jason and Scot at the end and voting out their alliance mates is the right thing to do. Long term plans rarely pan out in this game.
 
Djay

Djay

Trakanon Raider
2,308
359
If you say so. I've just seen far too many seasons where people are so scared of the potential of someone playing an idol that they never force them to use it and that person ends up in the Finals with it in their pocket.

And if what you're saying is true that it was definitely going to be either Aubrey or Cydney and people are playing as individuals (not as teams), then that makes even MORE sense for the other 4 to be, all, "fuck you, we're flushing the idol now." Sorry, the right move was to flush the idol. Sure, maybe Tai gets med evac'd with both idols in his pocket, but that doesn't make the decision any less stupid.
 
Araxen

Araxen

Golden Baronet of the Realm
10,453
7,843
So apparently Jason tweeted a spoiler and CBS told him to delete the tweet.
Apparently Tai gave the idol back to Jason as soon as they got back to camp. I would have never given it back.
 
Ameraves

Ameraves

New title pending...
<Bronze Donator>
13,413
14,531
Late catching up, I was out of town for a few days.

I figured Julia went back to the guys and told them she was going to vote with the girls to get Debbie out. That way they still get a girl out, and Julia gains the girls trust a bit further. It never showed Julia talking to them, but I figured that would be her best move. As of now her and Tai are probably my favorites. I had all but completely written her off when she was sent off to camp alone, but she has come back to play a pretty solid game.

As for Scot and Jason, those guys are fucking clowns. They have no chance of getting any votes, so sticking with them to the end would be the best way to go for Tai.
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,426
129,711
I think Tai picked poorly. His reasoning that everyone hates Scot and Jason was spot on. Stick with them with the numbers and he wins, easily. Now, he's going to get voted out at the next possible moment because he's too strong for the women/Joe to beat. Once Julia kept trying to egg him on the play the idol, and then seeing how the votes played out, he should have realized she wasn't his ally. At that exact moment he should've known to give Scot his idol. But he read the situation wrong.

At this point, final 3 is likely Jason, Julia, and Joe. I'd put Aubry and Michele as #2 and #3 to replace Julia; but Jason and Joe for the finals is almost a lock. Tai went from probably a 90% chance of winning to 10%.

Anyway, I really liked the reward challenge this week. Having people competing for different things was a good twist. I wish they'd figure out more gimmicks like that, and less retarded shit like exile island and weird "advantages."

And actually, I forgot Tai won the advantage until just now. At face value, you say "Wow, Tai has a chance to go far." But really, he's got a bigger target on his back. He's got an idol that everyone knows about, an advantage everyone knows about, and he's probably the most likable person on the tribe. AND he's a beast at challenges.
 
Fight

Fight

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
4,640
5,560
Aubry is really good at this game. I can't believe she flipped Tai. What an incredible episode.
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,426
129,711
Elurin_sl said:
Once Julia kept trying to egg him on the play the idol, and then seeing how the votes played out, he should have realized she wasn't his ally. At that exact moment he should've known to give Scot his idol. But he read the situation wrong.
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I take this back. I forgot that Julia voted for Tai. For some reason I thought she was part of the vote to get rid of Scot.
 
BrutulTM

BrutulTM

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
<Silver Donator>
14,671
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Badass blindside. I thought halfway through that Aubrey was totally screwed and I never would have guessed that Scot was going to walk out of the game with Jason's idol in his pocket. It was a badass move by Tai but he's probably in trouble now. Then again, I don't really think Scot and Jason were dumb enough to take him to the end either. Unless he goes on an immunity streak and plays his idol plus his advantage perfectly he's going to have a really tough time getting to the end. He took control of the game tonight but I don't think he's clever enough to get by people like Aubrey, Julia, and Cydney even with his advantages.

I don't know if Jason is going to the end. I think Aubrey and Cydney are going to want him gone just because he's going to be scheming with Julia and Michele to get them out even if they wouldn't mind sitting next to him at the end. He won't win but he's a free agent vote and he definitely has a vendetta against Tai and Cydney now. They might want to go to the end with Jason but I think they would rather play against Julia and Michele and Jason is definitely going to align with them.

I do think Joe will probably go to the end just because there is absolutely no reason to vote him out unless at some point he's on the wrong side of the numbers and the person that they really want to vote out has immunity or something.

Mainly I'm just happy that I don't have to listen to Jason and Scot talk about how they are running the game anymore. I give Aubrey a lot of credit for flipping Tai, but I have to give Jason and Scot some credit as well for taking him for granted. The combination of them being huge assholes which made Tai uncomfortable plus them treating him like he was their slave to command made him ripe for Aubrey to start whispering in his ear. She did it perfectly by establishing a relationship and a connection with him before getting into the strategy and listening to him and giving him the respect that Jason and Scot did not.

I also thought that the reward challenge was a cool twist and I give props to Aubrey for hanging tough in back to back challenges even if she didn't win.
 
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