Tennis

I caught only 4 games of the match (from 4-2 to 5-5 in the second) and that took 30 min...3 hours for a straight set victory ongrassmust be some kind of record. 11 breaks out of 32 games on grass? Shame on them booo booo! Was Edberg also in attendance today? That must be so weird for him to see matches like that. Anyway... Murray now won the title in two of the last four slams, who would have thought?

US Open right around the corner!

Let's check the draw of the Top 8 seeds with some comments about who did what since Wimby.


[1] DJOKOVICplayed the two Masters 1000 after Wimby (Canada and Cinci) and lost to Nadal in the semi of the first and to Isner in the quarter of the other. Ok results, but probably not good enough as he has a final to defend at the Open. An early exit could mean the loss of his throne.

R128:Berankis. Youngster that won some good matches here and there and is playing well this week in Winston Salem. Could prove tricky.

R64:BeckerorRosol. Two player that have done the occasional great match, but it's very very occasional.

R32:[25]Dimitrov. There is that famous Madrid win of Dimitrov over Djokovic, but since then Djokovic paid him back by crushing him at the French and the young Bulgarian did not collect very impressive scalps since then. He did offer a stern challenge to Nadal in Cinci last week though.

R16:[16]Fogninior [24]Paire. The italian Fognini had a run of victories on post Wimby clay court events (13 wins for two titles and a final), resulting in a surge in the rankings. That seriously cooled down once he hit the american hard courts (one win, two losses). And Paire? Plays well one day, like shit the next... who knows?

I doubt Djokovic is overly worried by this draw. Considering what is at stake, it could be interesting to see how he will react if he faces unexpectedly tough resistance from a Dimitrov for instance.



[6] DEL POTRObounced back immediately from his impressive semi final match against Djokovic at the All England by winning in Washington (he mowed through a pretty elite draw too). Oddly, this did not translate into a great level of play in Canada and Cinci (where an opened draw still allowed him to reach the semi). A bit strange really.

R128:Garcia-Lopez.

R64:HewittorBaker. Two counter punchers that could or have caused problems to Del Potro in the past, but their lack of competition should make them very unlikely to prevail over Del Potro in a best of 5. They could make it close for one or two sets though.

R32:??? The seed is [29]Melzerbut if you exclude grass, he is on a eight matches losing streak started back in mid april! (EDIT: actually he is winning matches this week in Winston Salem)

R16:This spot is mysterious... because you have [12]Haasand [21]Youzhny, with some tricky players likeMahutandDolgopolovin the mix,GoffinandLualso who can play very well at times... It should be Haas. I hope it's Haas. In fact I hope Haas wins the title, that would be awesome, but as well as the german can play, at this stage of his career, best of 5 matches are tough, so for him to go deep, he would have to win all his matches quickly, which is easier said than done.

The question mark is really how well Del Potro will be able to play. If he is ailing, if he plays at the same level as he did in Cinci, he will be in trouble against an in form opponent. Will he face one before the quarter though? I am not sure.



[3] MURRAYcelebrated his dream title, but the return to business proved difficult as he suffered early exists to Gulbis in Canada and Berdych in Cinci, both in pretty clear straight sets affairs. He has a title to defend here though.

R128:Llodra. A tricky first round to have, but the french serve&volleyer has not played much lately and Murray his a passing shot machine. Lack of success on hard and titlde defense pressure could be the grain of sand in the gears though.

R64:L. MayerorHanescu.

R32:[28]Monaco(not playing well atm) orF. Mayer(a bit of a sub-par Murray, so he need to be on a good day and the scott on a bad one to have a real shot) orKlizan(played some great match now and then, possibly the most dangerous of the bunch IF he brings his A game)...

R16:[15]Almagroand [20]Seppiare the seeds, but them both won a grand total of one match on american hard court since Wimby... That could open the door for someone but it's really not clear who... Istomin maybe? Or the american Johnson?

Unless Murray is paralyzed with fear and self-doubt or face an on-fire Klizan or Istomin, he should cruise through this draw.



[5] BERDYCHsuffered two early exits in Bastad (de Bakker!) and Canada (local hero Pospisil), but he beat Murray in Cinci to then lose in a very honorable 7-5 7-6 against Nadal.

R128:Lorenzi.

R64:KudlaorVesely

R32:[31]BenneteauorStakhovskyorChardy... three good servers with aggressive game plans. Should be interesting to watch.

R16:[9]Wawrinkaand [17]Andersonare the seeds. The swiss had some back problems in Gstaad and did not do much in North America and Anderson is... Berdych's pigeon I guess. They played each other no less than nine times in two years. Close ones, one sided ones: Berdych won them all! In this part of the draw also lurks a great veteran who won a good matches against Janowicz leading to this US Open: James Blake! I was impressed by his movement and the quality of his returns. He still might have a surprise or two in his bag.

It should be smooth sailing for Berdych unless he faces an opponent playing well above his current level.


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[8] GASQUETis not playing as well currently as he did in the first half of the year. A pale 2W/3L ratio since Wimby does not lie.

R128:Russel

R64:Qualifier

R32:[32]Tursunov. From nowhere really, 30 year old russian Tusunov made back to back runs in Washington and Cinci which earned him the seeding at the Open and he is currently playing a quarter final in WInston Salem.

R16:[10]Raonicwho reached the final in Canada is the most likely to go through to that stage. Spanish attacker [23]Lopez, who played well on the way to the Open could douze the canadian fire though.

I don't see Gasquet reaching the quarter final I must say. I fear it will be Raonic, which is a problem since Tennis is dying a little each time he wins a match.



[4] FERRERhas been playing great all year, going deep into almost all tournaments he played, but, oddly, since Wimby he suffered two very early exists, making a very uncharacteristic number of unforced errors.

R128:Qualifier.

R64:Bellucci. Not a big threat when not on clay.

R32:[30]Gulbis. Yep, the crazy latvian managed to reach seeding level. A relief for the other seeds! That said, Gulbis has still too many off days to be a real contender.

R16:[14]Janowicz. The guy still plays the occasional poor match, is not making the right choices at times, loses focus too easily, but still, he is winning a lot of matches and is a thorn on the side of anyone he faces. And he is only 22!

It will be interesting to see which Ferrer shows up. Grand Slam Ferrer, who is reaching the quarter finals with an alarming regularity (quarter final or better in the last 7 Majors!), or Canada/Cinci Ferrer who is not playing well and should lose early?



[7] FEDERERhad the odd idea to change racket after his surprising loss in Wimbledon. A different bat and a fubared back made for a laborious Hambourg campain stopped short by Delbonis (ATP 114 !) followed by a first round exit in Gstaad in straight sets against Brands... The thing is I was not overly worried by the loss to Stakhovsky, because the ukrainian played a great match, but the post-Wimbledon losses where just terrible matches with gifted breaks and horrible return games. I guess Federer was worried too, because he skipped Canada to heal his back and be ready for his Cinci title defense. He also went back to his old racket... after two so-so rounds (including being lead by Haas 6-1 4-2!) he was to face Nadal and really people expected a bloodbath, a sad humiliation for the swiss. Out of nowhere though, Federer played at a very high level and forced Nadal to also bring his best to escape a fascinating tactical battle which ended up being one of the best match of their 31 meetings. If the quality of the match was a very good sign for Federer and his fans, the loss meant a significant drop in the rankings. At N?7, Federer is at his worst ranking since October of 2002!

R128:Zemlja.

R64:BerlocqorGiraldo. Two players mostly dangerous on clay.

R32:[26]Querrey. The american is having a bit of shitty year, but the quality of his serve could keep him afloat long enough to benefit from Federer blinking first.

R16:[11]Nishikori(a bit of a so-so post Wimby performance, but can play very well on hard), [19]Robredo(a defending style that is rarely a winning proposition against Federer),Tomic(got schooled at the Australian Open and has been in a funk since then - helped by problems with his attitude and his crazy father).

It should be a relatively easy road to the quarter final for Federer, unless someone raises to the occasion like a Stakhovsky and plays a great match or Federer plays as poorly as he did during his post-Wimby clay court tournaments.



[2] NADALbounced in the best of ways after his surprising first round loss to Darcis in Wimbledon: He won in both Canada and Cincinnati. The draws kinda opened up for him, but he still beat Djokovic, Federer and Berdych. For reference, 7 of the 9 Master 1000 of the year have been played. Nadal competed in 6 and won 5 (reaching the final of the 6th). In fact, the King of Clay played 16 matches on hard court in 2013 and won them all...No wonder that even after skipping the Australian Open and losing in the first round Wimbledon, the spaniard is way ahead of everyone in the 2013 race. In fact, he could very well sit on top of the ATP ranking after the US open.

R128:Harrison. A tricky first round, but the once promising american never manage to fully materialize into the player many hoped he would be, possibly because his skill set does not really match his temper (he has no big weapons, so he should rely on being steady and playing the right shot at the right time, but it requires a patience and an even keel mind that he does not have... yet?).

R64:Pospisil. The young Canadian became a national hero has from nowhere he managed to beat both Isner and Berdych to reach a Master 1000 semi final in Canada against Raonic (who he pushed to a final set tie-breaker). Pospisil has a pretty pleasant attacking all court game, backing a good serve with good ground stokes and deft volleys. He is the kind of player that could trouble Nadal, but whether or not Pospisil is a one week wonder remains to be seen.

R32:[27]VerdascoorDavydenko... the spaniard is still in a bit of a funk while the russian played some good matches recently (wins over Simon and Paire, close loss against Del Potro) and happen to be one of the very very few guys to have a winning record against Nadal (6-5 total, 6-1 on hard court!).

R16:[13]Isneris the most likely candidate, though [22]Kohlschreiberis around andMonfilsand his returns could derail the Isner train. Nadal just won against Isner in the final of Cinci in two tie-breaks, so it's tough to make a much closer match.

Nadal is the favorite of the tournament and him not reaching the final would be a big surprise. Some people on his draw could make it tough for him during one or two sets, but winning a best of 5? I seriously doubt it.

A word about those who are not at the US Open:

Tsonga: retired in Wimbledon because of a knee problem. Has not played since. Even if he is back on his feet for the asian and indoor swings, it very much puts his spot at the Masters Cup in jeopardy, which could benefit Wawrinka, Gasquet, Haas, Raonic, Isner or even Fognini. This could also help Federer who is currently far from having secured his spot in the season's grand finale.

Simon: retired in Cinci.

Cilic: Reached the final at the Queen's, won his first round match in Wimby... and never played his second round and have not played since.

Troicki: Was selected for an anti-doping test at the Monte-Carlo Master 1000 earlier in the year. He had to provide a pee sample and a blood sample. As he was feeling unwell he asked if it was ok to only give a pee sample. From there a misunderstanding ensued. Troicki though he could only give the urine sample and be fine, while the Doping Control Officer supposedly said he could choose to not give the blood sample but that his reason might be deemed not compelling enough... End result: Troicki loses the ranking points for that event, has to give back the price money he received and... is suspended until January 2015! That seems very reasonable for a misunderstanding! Troicki is appealing...

Fish: Withdrew for personal reasons. One can speculate it has something to do with his heart problems and the duration of best of five matches.

Additional notes:

-Melzerthat I discarded inDel Potro's part of the draw ended up winning his fifth career title in Winston Salem. He might be able to ride this wave to reach the R32, but beating Del Potro seems like an unlikely scenario.

-Monfils(Isner/Nadalpart of the draw) reached the final of Winston Salem, but had to retire. Unclear at this point if it will affect his US Open campaign.

- We know who the qualifiers are.Ferrer's 1st round will beKyrgios, the 18 year old Australian who won the junior events at the AO and Wimbledon this year. They guy won a bunch of matches at Future and Challeneger level, but not so much at ATP level just yet.Gasquet's 2nd round will be french veteranRobertor french youngsterOlivetti. The 22 year old Olivetti is 6 ft. 8 in. ( 2.03 meters ) and fired more than 50 aces in three best of three qualifying matches. He won two in third set breakers too which is a proof of character. Like Kyrgios he has been winning a lot of matches at the lower levels of pro tennis lately.

That would be their 37th meeting... I'll one-up you with 7 doves for all four usual suspects to lose early.

For fun: Berdych and Ferrer have been inside the top 30 for the last 8 years. They played each other a grand total of 9 times!

We can already congratulate Ferrer on another Grand Slam quarter final, because both Gulbis and Janowicz lost in the first round! We can also do the same with Djokovic, as the only real threat was Dimitrov, who also did not win his opening match. Note that Nishikori also lost in the first round (Federer part of the draw). The sad part is that none of these guys had a shitty draw, facing a good player back from injury or a young star on the rise... The challengers are making the bed of the favorites.

The beauty of tennis is that there are as many ways of playing it as there are players, so the notion of 'perfect tennis' is pretty absurd. An Isner, since you mentioned him, will never play a 35 strokes baseline rally concluded by an insane passing shot, because his brand of perfect tennis implies rallies of 3 shots at most. Now, one can prefer a brand over another and some players are better at consistently playing close to the perfection of their brand, but anyone reaching a grand slam final must have been doing something very right for six matches. If I can choose to see two players at their best facing each other, I might pick an opposition that I have not already seen 36 times!

Anyway... Both Paire and Fognini lost today, clearing the path for Djokovic. Melzer also out in Del Potro's part of the draw (the argentinian had to battle four hours to edge Garcia-Lopez).

Today was also the final single match of James Blake's career. Consistent with the bad-draw-itis that haunted him in his come-back attempts, the amarican veteran had to face a qualifer in the first round, and it ended-up being Karlovic who had three matches in qualies to warm his arm up. The tall croatian fought back from two sets down and prevailed in the fifth set tie-breaker. A bit sad to conclude a career on such a strange and frustrating match, but that's what happened. Many thanks for years of great tennis James Blake.

I have to get some sleep, but I leave you with this for the time being:

Fundamentally, what are the condition for a rally to happen? Aggression must be controlled enough to not be a source of errors and impotent to the point of not generating winners nor forcing errors from the opponent. So a rally is when the sweet spot between doing too much and not doing enough is not found by the attacker, possibly because the quality of the defender makes that sweet spot pretty damn tiny. What is aggression in tennis? Aggression is taking time away from the opponent, so it makes it difficult or even impossible for him to reach the ball or, if in reach of the ball, to execute a good shot. It is also maneuvering the opponent in order to create spaces that he will not be able to cover in time. The flip side of aggression, is that taking time away for the opponent / playing in the gaps also means taking time from yourself and opening angles should the opponent reach the ball and manage to execute a good shot. So defending in tennis, is being able to reach the balls and produce good shots even when having very little time to do so (= having a lot of ground to cover). What is a good defensive shot? A shot that makes it hard for the opponent to steal time from you (most shots that land deep, slices that stay low, lifts that bounce high) or a shot that is a counter-attack, that steals time from the opponent.

Murray and Djokovic are such brilliant defenders, that when they play each other, they don't dare to attack unless they have a very clear opportunity to do so and very clear opportunities almost never arise since there is not kind of pressure being applied for it to happen. So we have rallies. But not exiting rallies where someone is trying to attack and the other is resisting trying desperately to find enough length or volume to last until an unforced error or a poor attack that might allow him to turn the tables around. Rallies where no one attacks, no one take risks. Now, when these guys play against people that are not as good as defending, we get to see a little more tennis as they attack more and get to counter-attack more also and face people that know they have to take risks and as a result make unforced errors.

For me, their tennis is not perfect. They play mostly a negative game that benefits from the imperfection of their opponents and the evolution of playing surfaces (slower) and racket/string technology (more control). When Hewitt does that, a veteran that has a hard time producing his own speed of shot, it is exciting, but when 6'2", 6'3" guys at the peak of their athletic abilities, who could have more aggressive game plans (and have success when they do like Murray!), don't, I have a hard time finding greatness in it, even if the results are there.

Nadal is also a different beast, because the spin he imparts on his forehand makes it almost game breaking in the sense that he can be extremely aggressive without much risks, both in execution (the spin allows the shot to have good net clearance and to still dive into the limits of the court) and opportunity give to the opponent (the spin pushing the opponent back or forcing him to play the ball on the rise if he wants to counter-attack).

And... I have to go so my rambling will stop there.

Update for the bottom half after three rounds:

[8] GASQUETThings went as planed for the frenchman playing Russel, french qualifier Robert and 32nd seed Tursunov. Only the russian tested Gasquet, but the frenchamn managed to sail past the alternating patches of errors and winners of his opponent.

R16:[10]Raonic, as expected, reached this stage after only being tested by Lopez.

Gasquet does not like to be bullied. It tends to make him move further and further back, whcih is rarely a winning proposition against someone who attacks well. He will have to try and be the one doing the bullying by finding the pretty harmless Raonic backhand. Easier said than done in the return games though.



[4] FERRERhas been playing good enough to make his way through, dropping a couple sets on the way, but also benefiting of the poor performances of the most dangerous players in his part of the draw (no Bellucci, no Gulbis and now no Janowicz).

R16:[18]Tipsarevicunexpectedly found his way to the third round. It is unexpected because he had not won three matches in a row since the Australian Open and since then posted a very unimpressive 8 win for 16 losses record!

Considering the score lines and the opponents, I am not sure Grand Slam Ferrer is back just yet. Facing a Tipsarevic finally building some confidence it could be a tight matche. Probablly not as tight as last year's quarter final that saw the spaniard won in the tie-breaker of the fifth set!



[7] FEDERERplayed rather well so far, making relatively light work of Zemlja, Berlocq and Manarino (instead of Querrey).

R16:[19]Robredomade the most of Nishikori's and Tomic's defeats and honored his seeding, by fighting through.

Over the years, Robredo's pretty defensive game plan proved not enough to contain Federer's offense. 10-0 for the swiss. 23 sets to 4. It would be very surprising if the outcome ended up being any different this time around considering the healthy level displayed by Federer in his first three rounds.



[2] NADALsaw the draw opened up nicely for him, avoiding the attacking game of Pospisil in R64 and Verdasco and Davydenko in R32 against whom he had some losses in the past. That said, it opened to reveal Dodig who beat him in a epic match back in 2011 in Montreal. Unbreakable, Nadal still managed to go through in straight sets.

R16:[22]Kohlschreiberbeat Isner last year and beat him again this year, finding the right dosage of security and aggression to win most points once rallies started and guessing well enough on the returns to get into those rallies. The end of the match was pretty epic as Kohlschreiber got broken at 5-5 in the fourth and astoundingly managed to break straight back to force a breaker that he won.

Nadal is pretty happy with this turn of events as he must feel more in control of the outcome when playing the german than when facing the american ace machine. That said, Kohlschreiber had his only win against Nadal last year on grass and always won a set in their hard court meetings.



The Nadal vs Federer quarter that we expected in Wimbledon seems like it has a good chance to happen this time. Their very recent Cinci meeting was a very pleasant surprise by how tight and tactical it ended up being, so hopes are reasonably up for a similar battle. The Gasquet/Raonic/Ferrer/Tipsarevic quarter of the draw is a little more mysterious. If you take the tournaments leading to the US Open as an indicator, Raonic might very well be the one reaching the semi.

Top half of the draw after three rounds:

[1] DJOKOVICwas untested. He seemed to play well, but it's hard to tell because he faced very little opposition.

R16:Granollers of all people found his way through the draw. The spaniard battled for five sets against another surprise: Smyczek, the last american in the men's draw.

I'll be surprised if Granollers win a set.


HEWITTbeat Del Potro and confirmed against russian youngster Donskoy in four sets. Not one for someone that had to go through 8 doctors to finally find one who did not tell him to stop playing tennis!

R16:[21]Youzhnyplayed a very poor game against Haas at Roland Garros, but it went the other way this time around, with Haas making an uncharacteristic amount of unforced errors. A defeat that makes reaching the Masters all the more unlikely for the german.

On paper Youzhny is the favorite, but... who knows with Hewitt? The guy is so hungry and he will want to play Djokovic badly.



[3] MURRAYhad a little hiccup against Leonardo Mayer and a close set against Florian Mayer, but it felt more an issue with focus and with getting into the matches than anything else.

R16:Istominworked hard for his ticket in the fourth round as he himself took down the two seeds in his part of the draw. He might pay a dire price for the five sets played against Seppi in the damp heat of the day though.

Murray is the clear favorite, but Istomin's clean ball striking could, on a great day, force Murray to defend.


[5] BERDYCHdealt extremely well with Benneteau who can be a tricky customer, only letting the frenchman score 5 games.

R16:[9]Wawrinkahad a pretty tricky draw with Stepanek, one of the most dangerous unseeded player, followed by Karlovic, another of the most dangerous unseeded player, but he somehow managed to win both matches in straight sets. He almost did the same against against Baghdatis, but he lost the 3rd set tie-breaker and had to fight until another breaker in the fourth to finally prevail. One of the key to the success of the best players is their ability to cruise through the earlier rounds and be considerably fresher than the people they face in the round of 16 or quarter final. Let's hope that extra set in very hot and humid conditions will not cost Wawrinka too much energy for his fourth round match.

This could be a great match as these two have had tight and hard fought contests in the past. If it goes the distance, it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory though as a probably fresh Murray will await the victor.



Djokovic must have a smile on his face, because he might reach the semi final without having played a seeded player! And, who knows, maybe it's Istomin who be his opponent then! Smart money remains on Djokovic vs Murray though.

We have our quarter finals:

[1] Djokovic, as expected, made light work of Granollers. The spaniard resisted during 6 games and then the floodgate opened: 6-3 6-0 6-0.
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[21] Youzhnymanaged to make the most of Hewitt's nerves for whom a quarter final against Djokovic in a Grand Slam would be a huge achievement at this point of his career. Hewitt served for the third set and could not close it (finally won it in a breaker). He lead 4-1 in the fourth (lost it 6-4). He lead 5-2 in the fifth (lost it 7-5). Disheartening for the australian and his fans, but kudos to Youzhny who kept fighting no matter what the situation was and managed to produce some great shots and hold his own nerves when it most mattered.

It should be the most competitive match in Djokovic's draw so far, but still only one outcome is expected.


[3] Murraydropped the first set against Istomin in a breaker, reacted well in the second and then did just enough in the third and fourth.
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[9] Wawrinkahad the not so enviable task of facing a Berdych that had been impressive in the tournement. That being said, Berdych had the not so enviable task of facing Wawrinka who played through three very tough matches to reach that stage and against whom he has a very poor record in their recent encounters. Both players were very aggressive from the baseline, with Berdych surprisingly being the most eager of the two to close points at the net. The keys of that high octane battle (not a good day to be a tennis ball!) were Wawrinka's ability to read and return the Berdych serve very well (keeping it at a meager 5 unreturned serves over 18 service games!) and Berdych's higher unforced error count (probably caused in part by Wawrinka's great court coverage).

Murray has not been overly impressive so far in his US Open campaign and Wawrinka had several good win over Murray in the past (notably in the 2010 US Open). Their last meeting was a 6-1 6-2 Wawrinka win, but it was on clay. Anyway, it shoudl be interesting to see.


[8] Gasquet, despite several incursion into the Top 10 has been a serial loser at R16 level, parly because his ranking often made him play tougher opponents at that stage and partly because he spent too much energy in the previous rounds and just ran out of gas. With a 8th seeding, he finally faced someone ranked lower than him, but in-form 10th seed Raonic was not exactly a gimme. So the frenchman fought. Hard. Tried to mix things up, moved forward, attempted some return and volley, let the third set slide to gather his forces and kept fighting despite the many opportunities snuffed by Raonic's huge serve. End result: an almost 5 hours epic, packed with tense moments and great shots won 7-5 in the fifth by the frenchman.
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[4] Ferrercontinues to play not so well and still continues to win. He was lead by Tipsarevic in all the sets of their contest, but still managed to find a way through in four sets!

Ferrer has a very good record against Gasquet. Will the eighth seed be galvanized by his win or diminished by the energy it costed? We'll know that later today.


[19] Robredoknew that to beat Federer he had to play very well, his opponent had to play below his level and that he probably needed a little luck on top it all. This is precisely what happened. The swiss was striking the ball well enough, moving around ok, but was very poorly inspired when came the times to close points. Unforced errors, poor shot selections, good anticipations by Robredo... and then the most unbelievable string of mental cramps on break points. For all the haphazard plays, the first set remained very close (two breaks each) and Robredo won in in a breaker. Then it remained close, but Federer failed to convert his many opportunities and failed to defend his serve on the rare occasions it was threatened. End result over the 2nd and 3rd set: Federer converted none of 12 break points, Robredo 2 of 2, one in each set. 7-6 6-3 6-4 for a very happy Spaniard celebrating christmas in september.
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[2] Nadalfaced a very good Kohlschreiber... for a set and some change. As often, Nadal managed to impose and then sustain a very high standard of play longer than his opponent. So it's close... until it no longer is and the spaniard wins!

Winning for Robredo against Nadal is a little less likely than against Federer, especially when you consider the form of the World N?2 (in name only) at the moment.



It seems to me that AngryGerbil will get his Nadal vs Djokovic final! Nadal's presence is almost a certainty and at this point Wawrinka in the final seems more likely than Murray, which is to say... not very likely.