Tennis

Because she is well proportionate, we tend to forget that Sharapova is 6'2" (1m88 - without stilettos!) and because of her on-court demeanor, we tend to forget she can be pretty funny!

On tennis news, The ATP 500 in Hambourg saw three notable things: Brown won a couple matches in a row (he had not won a match since beating Nadal in Halle), there was a seedicide of epic proportion (only 2 seeds left in quarter: Ferrer and Kohlschreiber) and wild card Alexander "Sasha" Zverev, the younger brother of tennis journeyman Mischa Zverev, is still in the draw at age 17! The younger Zverev is (was?) World N?1 in junior. Good serve, good 2-handed backhand and some no-non-sense steady play allowed him to be the youngest player to win matches on the ATP tour in a while.

Ferrer on teenager Zverev after their match: "He's an unbelievable player, impressive, serves good, he's intelligent. A good future for him." Scoreline: 6-0 6-1. For Ferrer that is.

I have not seen it, but another 17 year old managed to win a couple matches at home as a wild card: Borna Coric in Umag (Croatia). Beat Roger-Vasselin in straight sets (more of a fast surface guy, but still a quality player) and then clay court specialist Zeballos in straight sets. He won the first set and went to a breaker in the second against Fognini, only to lose in the third.

I've been a bit greedy on the updates here! We are at the quarter final stage of a master 1000 in Toronto! Before checking the draw, it should be said that Nadal is not playing this week and will not play Cinci to nurse a right wrist injury. I guess he'll win the US Open then... (more seriously, it's unclear if he will be able to play at the Open). So... the draw:

TSONGAbeat two frenchmen before ousting Djokovic. The serb had a very difficult first match against Monfils, his usually so reliable backhand going AWOL for some unknown reason. I have not seen the Tsonga match, but if Djokovic played as poorly with on top of that the mental and physical toll of the Monfils match, I am not surprised Tsonga won easily.
vs
MURRAYhad a walkover, Gasquet having to retire because of an abdominal strain. A shame because the frenchman played two good matches against Pospisil (finally healthy and playing well) and Karlovic (who had a straight set win in his racket but got reeled back in by Gasquet). Murray's only match has been a quick dismissal of Wimby's revelation Kyrgios who after a good first round win against the consistent Giraldo, played a bit of a shitty match against the scott.

Curious to see how this one pan out. If both show up, it could be pretty great with a lot of different types of points.


ANDERSONneeded three sets to beat the young qualifier from Australia Kokkinakis, but followed it up by two solid matches against Fognini and Wawrinka. Serving almost 70% of first serves against the swiss, he gave very few opportunities on his serve.
vs
DIMITROVtook three sets to beat Young who is competing well these days and also three to beat Robredo who has been competing well for a very long while!

You always feel that a key to a match involving Anderson will always be his first serve percentage... unless Dimitrov manages to get a good read on the south-african's serve (something that Wawrinka sorely needed).


RAONICthe local hope (who won a title last week), found a way through two tough matches. One in the breaker of the third against young american Sock (who has a very weird wristy forehand that is surprisingly lethal) and old frenchman Benneteau who is always a tricky opponent to play because of the diversity of his arsenal and a better court coverage than you would think at first.
vs
LOPEZis not exactly unlucky. He faced the winner of two qualifiers in the 2nd round and Berdych had a neck problem at the end of the first set, helping the spaniard to win the second and third. Berdych actually smashed his racket after losing the match, which I don't remember ever seeing him do. I guess, when you're Berdych, getting injured when Nadal is not here and Djokovic lost is more than a bit infuriating.

If no one blinks, that will be a tie-break fest, but neither has been imperial this week, so surely there will be some blinking.


FERRERhas been a bit wonky this year. He got a leg injury, which certainly does not help the game of someone spending all of his matches running around like a madman, but still, he is here after two three sets wins over Russell and Dodig.
vs
FEDERERplayed a masterclass in his first match against canadian wild card Polansky. Polansky played a very solid first round match against Janowicz and really played a pretty ok match against Federer and he even broke him once! Still: 6-2 6-0. The second round was a much tighter affair for the swiss as an in form Cilic served very well and played aggressively with a lot of success. After a good first set tie-breaker Federer found himself with opportunities to close the match in straight sets at 5-4 in the second, getting 5 match points (including an 'easy' volley) on the Cilic serve in a marathon 30 points game that lasted 18 minutes and 47 seconds! Cilic managed to escape and even lead the breaker from start to finish to force a third set! Another long Cilic service game at 4-4 this time ended with a break that Federer confirmed with authority to win his spot in quarters. Both competitors played at a high level, but Federer's return of serve was a bit lackluster at time and it took him 10 break points to break just the once! It also ended up being a 2h40 match at the end of the night session, so, maybe he will pay this extra hour of tennis later on.

Considering the head to head (14-0) and the form of both at the moment, a Ferrer victory would be very surprising. But surprises happen, that's why the word exist.


Amusingly, the 4 master 1000 winners still in the draw face each other. Maybe that will help open the path for a new winner? Anderson or Raonic maybe? *sadface*

Why am I not surprised you wrote a paragraph about Federer after writing only a couple sentences on the others

Nice summaries though. Thanks Szila, I enjoy reading them.

Topsy Turvy day in Toronto with all four quarters going the distance. And the semis are:

TSONGAbagged an extremely tight first set in a breaker and, having broken first in the second, looked like his excellent serving would allow him a straight set victory. But it was Topsy Turvy day, so Murray managed to make even more returns in play, Tsonga made some unforced errors, managing his backhand poorly, going for too much with his forehand, Murray became a little more aggressive and what have you: Murray turned things around in the second and lead in the third. Topsy Turvy! Being lead, Tsonga cought fire, Murray blinked and Tsonga won the match!
vs
DIMITROVbeat Anderson earlier in the year thanks to an awesome choke job by the south-african. Today was a repeat of this match in nightmare mode. Imperial on serve and making the most of his opportunities one big forehand at a time, Anderson found himself leading 7-5 5-3 40-15, but four unforced error later (including a volley in the net on match point that was probably more difficult to miss than to turn into a winner) Dimitrov was right back in the match. The bulgarian then milked the leaky forehand of the shell shocked Anderson to win the second set in front of an incredulous crowd. But... Topsy Turvy day: he played abominable first service in the third, gifting Anderson a break. The south african could not believe his luck, and rightly so, because his lead was short lived, as was the one he had the third set breaker (where he possibly got another match point?), but the court coverage of the bulgarian and his never say die attitude earned him a spot in the semis. If I wanted to be mean, I would say Anderson, with his terribly limited and stereotypical game along with his frail mind should probably undergo a sex change and go play in the WTA, but I just hope he'll not suffer PTSD from this loss and that he will give more depth to his game.

LOPEZtook a big poop right in the middle of the canadian party and exposed Raonic almost total inability to make good returns against a serving & volleying leftie. The spaniard also managed his weaker backhand very well, throwing all kind of awkward slices at Raonic, often followed at the net for added pressure. The number of times Lopez did not even have to hit a volley was alarming. Still, Raonic's serving kept him mostly afloat, forcing and winning a breaker in the second. The canadian had the momentum with him in the third and managed to make Lopez's life on serve a lot harder, including a monster of a game where the canadian got his first break opportunities. He got nine of them and Lopez saved them all! Topsy Turvy day was at it again and of course Lopez broke Raonic on his first break point and went on to serve out the match!
vs
FEDERERbeating a so-so Ferrer was a formality on paper and as the match started with the swiss breaking the spaniard to love it felt that it would be... but not on Topsy Turvy day: the spaniard broke right back. Luckily, the quality of the offensive play of Federer mixed with the fact he reads Ferrer's game very well resulted in another break and a won first set. The swiss even broke Ferrer first in the second! Maybe Federer thought a tennis match stops after a set and a break, but Ferrer knew it is not the case and he once again immediately broke back thanks to a depth of shots that pushed the swiss into errors. As we reached the business end of the second set, I expected the World N?3 to find and extra gear, but the opposite happen: Ferrer started to paint the lines and Federer started to mistime shot after shot, allow Ferrer to level the match to a set all. Federer's terrible level of play continued in the third set, but somehow there were just enough good things (here a good first serve, there turning a seemingly impossible lunge volley into a perfect drop shot) to keep him alive. Topsy Turvy time: as Federer's level was back to more respectable standards he broke on his first opportunity and this time managed to hold his advantage until the finish line! Not a classic performance, but it felt the whole way through that the swiss, more vocal that usual, had trouble keeping his focus and intensity. I blame an excess of cake. After all it was his 33rd birthday today.


Tsonga vs Dimitrov should be interesting as both can be very spectacular. Lopez vs Federer could turn into a very old school match with both players trying desperately to reach the net before the other!

I am not going to lie: even after tonight's so-so performance, I think Federer as a good chance to lift his third trophy of the year. Right before Cinci too that the swiss already won 5 times!

Truth be told, these semis were a tad disappointing after the number of hard fought three sets matches we saw this week.

TSONGAplayed a solid match. Served well, hit some very aggressive second shots, was patient in the rallies to find the right ball to attack. Solid. Dimitrov on the other hand played pretty well in the beginning but then gifted a break at 4-4. He made Tsonga work hard to close out the set, but unable to prevent it, he seemingly went away, gifting another break with four unforced errors. He never recovered and played very poorly from there. Disappointing.
vs
FEDERER, as expected, made Lopez work a lot harder than Raonic. Not only the swiss returned better, but he dominated most of the rallies unlike the canadian. This put Lopez under a lot more pressure as he felt obligated to get the upper hand with the serve to have a chance to win points. This additional pressure, the aura of Federer (that he never beat before), the fact it was a semi final in a Master 1000 (his 3rd in career and he lost the previous two) and also simply the form of the day resulted in a pretty dismal first serve percentage, making his task that much more complicated. He had to play several very long service games where he stayed very aggressive, saving a number of break points, but since two third of the match took place on the Lopez serve, a very mobile and focused Federer won in straight sets without even facing a break point.

The head to head favors Federer to the tune of 11 to 4 with the swiss winning 7 of their last 8 matches. Still, three of the four Tsonga wins have been so extraordinary that their specters haunt any match these two compete against each other.

- The first was a quarter final in Canada in 2009: Tsonga made a suicide dive-volley in the first set breaker that was so surprising Federer missed an easy put away and lost the set. Tsonga though hurt his arm in the process and lost both his focus and timing, so Federer dismantled him 6-1 in the second and lead 5-1 in the third. Yet, he played a poor game when came the time to close and Tsonga broke the swiss on his first break point of the match. From there, the frenchman walked on water and Federer could not find the court with his shots. It even took a miracle for him at 5-6 0-40 to earn the right to play a breaker. The swiss only scored three points in hit, giving the match away on a double fault for good measure. A very rare Federer melt down, second only to the one against Djokovic that made him break his raquet!

- The second was a 2011 match in Wimbledon where Federer found himself with a two sets to love lead and then Tsonga started to serve incredibly well, winning the next three sets 6-4 and being the first to ever beat Federer after being two sets to love down.

- The third was at the french open last year. Tsonga played a super clean match from start to finish and after a tight first set, he discarded Federer, breaking him twice in each set for a 7-5 6-3 6-3 scoreline.

Other than the globally good head to head, Federer can take comfort in the fact he already beat Tsonga twice in 2014, including a straight set win at the Australian Open where he faced (and saved) only a single break point.


PS: We will not get a new Master 1000 winner (only 4 new winners in the last 6 years: Ljubicic, Soderling, Ferrer and Wawrinka).

That final was a bit underwhelming. Tsonga started serving very poorly (less than 30% of first serves), but Federer failed to make the frenchman pay for it, mostly because Tsonga played at a solid level and Federer was, on the day, not able to produce the high quality ground strokes that played a big role in him reaching the final. The swiss served adequately though and volleyed brilliantly allowing him to defend his delivery with relative ease. Still, Tsonga served better and better and, with the slight advantage of being first at the line, he put 6 in the bag without facing a break point. Then helped by some unforced errors by the swiss maestro, he turned a 40-15 into a break for a 7-5 first set.

In the second set, it became alarmingly apparent that Federer's timing on his ground strokes was shockingly off. The arm needs to be loose and fast, so if you are nervous and lose confidence in your shots, it tends to get worse rather than better, so being a set down against a guy that serves well is not the situation you want to be in if you want to find some calm and confidence to execute better. So Federer went with plan B: 'Since I am not winning the rallies, let's make sure I play as few as possible.' He went to the net like it was 1985 and posted very very good numbers there. Still, it's 2014 so you can't just Serve and Volley on every serve or follow any shot to the net, so even if his old school heroics paid dividends he still found himself in lost rallies, in One-Two Punches ending in the net or fell to some brilliant Tsonga returns. He had to fight long and hard, but somehow managed to save 6 breaks points (including a couple match points at 5-6) to force a breaker, but he was unable to steal the set from Tsonga as the underdog played it like he played the whole match: at a consitant high level. Nothing incredibly fancy, not redlining his game, just playing better than his opponent of the day, like he did against Dimitrov, Murray and Djokovic .

The best player won and, in all fairness, the player with by far the hardest draw won, which is a bit of karmic justice. For his 20th final, Tsonga won his 11th title, his second Master 1000 crown after Paris in 2008.

I noticed something strange about this 2014 season for Federer. He is back in good health and as such is able to move very well, which is a key for just about everything in tennis: scramble behind the base line to defend, dance around your backhand to play forehands, be early and well placed on short balls, cover the net, be stable and balanced when executing strokes. Attack, defense, everything but the serve really. So after a dismal 2013 season he is back in the mix, reaching the later stages of Grand Slams and Master 1000, winning titles... but... something is not quiet where it used to be.

Federer played 7 finals this season so far, which is in line with his performances since 2008 and the formation of the Big Four (2013 excepted), but he won only 2 titles.

Consider this superb home made graph:




You can see that the number of final played somewhat correlates with the win rate. Playing well is a double whammy: the better you play, the more finals you reach and the more you win. It peaks in the pre-Nadal years, then Nadal and the other two of the Big Four come into play, dropping all metrics, then you have the above average 2012 that allows him to be back at the N?1 spot for bit and then it's 2013 and the fubar'ed back. In 2014 that little red dot sure moved back up to where we want it to be, but the legendary efficiency in finals is worse than it ever has been (the very beginning of his career excepted).

I wonder if there is not a mental side to it. In 2006 or even 2010, a final is just another final and it's all about trying to beat a possibly excellent player on the other side of the net (and he had the reputation to be unplayable in finals with like 70% win ratio at this point), but, in 2014, a final, even if it's the 120th like it was today, is a bit special because... how much more will there be? 10? 15? And suddenly playing you best tennis when you really need to is that much more difficult. End result: a loss to Hewitt in Brisbane, a poor match today against Tsonga and a loss to Wawrinka and two to Djokovic when victory was in sight.

No rest for the braves: Cinci already started! Djokovic is trying to win Cinci for the first time, which would allow him the pretty incredible feat of having won all nine Master 1000 on the ATP Tour! Technically, Nadal and Federer also won 8 different titles at this level, but they won tournaments that no longer exist (Madrid indoor on hard court) or got demoted (Hamburg, now a 500). It looked for a while he would make an excellent start to this campaign, but out of nowhere Simon won their second set from a break down and kept it very close in the third. Last week's champion did worse: Tsonga got ousted in his first match against Youzhny, by basically making in one match all the unforced errors he did not do last week in Toronto!

Draw analysis... soonish.

So. Cinci round of 16 here we go:

DJOKOVICon his quest for a full set of Master 1000.
vs
ROBREDOwho had two solid wins against in form wild card Sock and Querrey.

YOUZHNYwho after making light work of a washed up Tsonga discarded Seppi.
vs
FERRERmanaged to prevail in an extremely close match against Kohlschreiber that ended with the most incredible scoreline: 6/7(4) 7/6(4) 7/6(4)! Three breakers, that happens, but three breakers that end with the same scoreline, I can't remember seeing this!

WAWRINKAserved for a routine 6/3 6/4 win over Becker, but found himself in a tie-break instead. No damage though, he still managed to close the deal in straight sets.
vs
CILICcontinues to show his good form after a solid week in Toronto. He beat Lopez in the first round and then Verdasaco in two tie-breaks.

BENNETEAUtook full advantage of the seed having to retire in his part of the draw and beat a lucky loser and a qualifier to reach the round of 16.
vs
JANOWICZplayed a decent enough match against Gabashvili and then managed to win in three sets against Dimitrov in spite of a stretch of poor play during the second set.

RAONICwon. Tennis lost. The opponent of the day was american veteran Ginepri who for some reason had a wild card into the event and made a good use of it by outlasting austrian youngster Thiem.
vs
JOHNSONanother american wild card, beat head case Paire easily and then did just enough against head case trying to get better Gulbis to win in straight sets.

FOGNINIplayed an horrible topsy turvy match against the very professional Roger-Vasselin and barely managed to win in a third set breaker, but apparently cleaned up his act against Hewitt in the second round.
vs
LUhad a good win in the first round against Istomin and an excellent win against Berdych in the second (just like last week, Berdych won the first set and lost the following two... he injured himself last week though, so maybe he was not fit enough this week?)

MURRAYcontrolled dirtballer Sousa with ease.
vs
ISNERhad a good win over Anderson in the first round and backed it by beating australian Matosevic.

MONFILShad to go the distance against jurneyman Delbonis in the first round, but then destroyed 13th seed Bautista Agut (aka Mr No Non-Sense But No Game).
vs
FEDERERhad a pleasant draw last week, but not so much this week as he had to beat the very much in form and dangerous Pospisil. The swiss missed some early opportunities, but did not pay for it as he bagged the first set in a tie-break. At 6-5 in the second though, two unforced errors, a ridiculously lucky shot by Pospisil (off centered ball that turned into a semi-lobed passing shot that landed on the line...) and a good rally allowed the canadian to level the match. Sadly for the youngster, two poor service games in the third allowed Federer to cruise to victory without having to do anything special. Very nice match with a good level of all court tennis, even if the three break of serves we more gifts than anything else.


The absence of Nadal in the draw and the fact Murray and Federer are in the same quarter allows for two somewhat open spots in the semi finals. One of them will probably go to Raonic, but the Wawrinka/Cilic/Benneteau/Janowicz block is difficult to predict. That being said, last week certainly reminded us that surprises do happen, so maybe a hot Monfils will oust Federer and Murray, or a pumped up Ferrer will prove too much to handle for Djokovic.

Quarter finals, here we come!

ROBREDOplayed well. So when he plays well, don't expect too many loose balls or poor shot selections. When the spaniard plays well you better play a clean match at the very least if you want to prevail. Djokovic obviously has more weapons than Robredo, but he did not play a clean match tonight, so he lost a bit tamely in straight sets.
vs
FERRERis another guy whose work ethic cannot be questioned. He fought from a break down against Youzhny to win the first set and from there he trampled the broken will of his opponent and made a bagel out of it.

Two players that are not too dissimilar. Ferrer probably defends better and Robredo is a more natural player up the court. That could well turn into an epic.


WAWRINKAlost the first set and then raised his level considerably and lost only one more game! Ok... That was different.
vs
BENNETEAUkept a base level of play that was simply too high for the ups and downs of Janowicz.

The frenchman is playing well, so he could be the Robredo to Wawrinka's Djokovic.


RAONICthrew his opponent a life line as he served for the match in the third set, making two double faults and an unforced error to allow Johnson back into the match. The american repayed the favor though when he played 4 very poor points in a row from ? 4-2 in the third set tie-breaker! He will have nightmares about that!
vs
FOGNINIsomehow managed to kick himself in the butt just enough to play some good tennis during two sets against Lu, allowing him to win in three after a dubious start.

Anything is possible with the italian, but I saw him too often brake himself with five or six swings of his raquet to imagine him playing tightly enough to be victorious.


MURRAYmanaged to oust Isner. A poor game by the american at the begining of the second set and later a poor third set breaker were enough for Murray to claim the victory. Isner played some pretty crazy net shots during this match.
vs
FEDERERhad to fight long and hard against Monfils the human wall. In the end, he managed to find the right mix of patience and aggression to prevail.

The head to head goes 11-10 the way of Murray (with none of the matches happening on clay), but they only played each other once in the last 19 months: a pretty confortable 4 sets win by Federer at the Australian Open. Murray was still relatively freshly back from a back injury though, so it's difficult to make a good prediction.

We have the semis after two tights matches and two joke matches.

FERRERunsurprisingly had to work very hard in a very tight battle against Robredo. Once again, the better ranked of the two spaniard showed his abbility to fight on every ball and keep his game plan from the first to the last point. Here: playing a lot more backhands down the line than usual to open the backhand side of Robredo who, like most spaniard, likes to dominate proceedings with his forehand from his backhand corner. That being said, Ferrer got a little help from Robredo, who played four poor points in row when he was about to break his compatriot in the middle of the third set, and a lot of help from lady luck as a dead net cord gave him the decisive break late in the third.
vs
BENNETEAUmust still wonder what happened. He got pummeled by Wawrinka in a 20min 6-1 first set and then the swiss could not find the court. Almost literally. Wawrinka made 4 unforced errors in the first set and then 36 in 15 games that the next two lasted. Even stranger, Wawrinka who is known for getting pissed of and even break rackets, did not seem overly phased by the lack of first serves and kept going for his shots, missing again and again. Maybe he was injured and did not want to retire to not rob Benneteau of an actual win? Maybe he was preoccupided by some off court problem? Very strange. We'll see if we get some more info in the hours or days to come. Anyway, credit to Benneteau who kept his focus and maintained a high level of play from start to finish.

The head to head between the two is actually very close. You have to give an edge to Ferrer's experience though.

RAONICwon 6-1 6-0 against Fognini, so I'll just assume the italian beat himself.
vs
FEDERERplayed a pretty good match against Murray. He started strong and aggressive, getting break points in the first two Murray serves, but the scot managed to escape both time. That's the kind of things that can and bite you in the ass, but Federer did not blink on serve and played another good return game to break and not look back. It has to be said though that Murray was a little bit off color, making less returns that usual, getting less free points on serve and also making less passing shots than you would expect. Things got a little less clean for the swiss in the second set, unforced errors on both wings and at the net creeping in, allowing Murray to get an early break, hold with ease and break once more! At 4-1 with a double break it felt like one of those matches Federer fans try to forget, but the GOAT kept his fighting spirit, adjusted his game plan slightly to make more balls and find back the timing on his shots, accepted to defend a little more and managed to not only catch up with Murray, but also to break him at 6-5 for a straight set victory! Good work from the World N?3 and the problems continue for Murray who lost all 6 of the matches he played against Top 10 opponents since his Wimbledon title last year.

Let's just say this. They played 5 times and in these five matches Federer played 79 service games, faced 12 break points and got broken just the once. Also note that that one break and 8 of those 12 break points happened in their one match on clay. I am not saying Raonic can't win. I am saying that he will need tie-breaks and/or the help of Federer. Both can happen though, but they have not happened before. Something that can help the canadian though is that Federer is the overwhelming favorite now and the title is his to lose as he is at a cumulative 25-2 in head to head against the other three players left in the draw. That can play with his mind and to beat Raonic extreme focus is required.

Not a suspenseful day. A jaded Benneteau against an amped up Ferrer resulted in a pretty one sided 6-3 6-2. A bit surprising when you consider their head to head. The Raonic vs Federer match also had the potential to be tense, but it was not. Federer activated the god mode and made a poorly serving Raonic look painfully inadequate. The swiss won 100% of his service points and converted his two break point opportunities for a pretty sobering 6-2. Things got closer in the second set as Raonic made a better job returning and Federer assumed human form again. The canadian managed to have an even lower first serve percentage, but somehow became more efficient thanks to a higher rate of kicked serves bouncing high on the Federer backhand. Still, Federer saved a break point, hung around and at 4-3 managed to transform a 40-0 on the Raonic serve into a long duration game with multiple break points. On one of them the canadian went once again with the kick serve that served him so well during the set, but he went to the well once to often as Federer sliced a vicious return down the line that forced the error from Raonic. So with this 6th match, Raonic can add a single unconverted break point to his tally.


So there you have it:FERRERvsFEDERER, two players, only four letters and, so far, only one winner. 15-0 and only 4 out of 35 sets played. On the up side for Ferrer: one of these sets was won last week and Federer had to play late as the women match between Sharapova and Ivanovic lasted almost 3 hours.

A bit of a roller coaster ride this one. Federer starts by serving well and playing some high quality offensive tennis, spreading the court and closing the net, or drawing Ferrer in with short slices. But Ferrer started well also and managed to play points on his terms behind his serve. From nowhere though the spaniard played a terrible game and gift-wraped a break to Federer with unforced errors and double faults. Federer accepted the gift, but not without having to fight very hard as Ferrer started by playing three brilliant return points. 6-3 Federer

In the beginning of the second set, it looked as though we were headed with a straight forward victory as Federer got several break points, but after a lengthy battle, some clever serves and a little luck, Ferrer managed to escape and did not look back. Taking full advantage of some poor serving and some sloppy shot, Ferrer turned the momentum of the match in his favor, winning the base line rallies and finding vicious passing shots on the Federer approaches, so 5 games later Federer actually faced a break point that could have ended the set in a bagel. That would have been his 4th (5th?) in career! The swiss avoided this humiliation, but could not turn things around like he did in the quarter final against Murray. 6-1 Ferrer.

The favorite was shaking and his fans also were as he was challenged again in his first service game of the decider. Luckily some good serves bailed him out and again the momentum changed. More focused, more energized and more precise than in the second set, Federer found again solutions to draw Ferrer away from his favorite patterns of play and even turn things around when the spanish N?2 started to dominate with his forehand. More bite on the slices, more depth with the topspin shots, Ferrer found it very hard to live with Federer. It even went from bad to worse as the swiss started to paint the lines time and time again, flying to a 80th title in career. 6-2 Federer.


In the post match conference Ferrer made a promise though: He will get Federer on the senior tour! He got the laughter of the crowd and also very warm ovations as Ferrer is exemplary in his fighting spirit and professionalism. In fact, two very good models for young players were on court today. You have Federer with his magnificent technique and willingness to be aggressive on every opportunity, but the coordination, creativity and hand skills he possesses are very hard if not impossible to teach. Also he makes it seem so effortless that one might fooled to believe no hard work is behind his successes (it is known though that Federer's warming up sessions tend to be him goofing around on court for 45 min). Ferrer on the other hand is a guy that got dropped by his federation because they did not think he had much potential. So he fought. Played hard, trained hard and came to enjoy the fight and strive in adversity. There is no doubt when you watch Ferrer play that it is hard work, but it also shows that a not so tall guy without the most elegant technique, the softest of hands nor brilliant inspirations, can be near the top of the game for years thanks to his impeccable work ethic.

Rafa Nadal, toast.

I predict a very strange US Open. It seems pretty open considering the number of players that are not at their best. It will be interesting to see if a surprise player can rise up to the occasion (Tsonga, Ferrer and Raonic are the likeliest candidates at this point) and go lift the trophy or if Murray and/or Djokovic manage to find a better level in 'best of five sets' matches. Failing this, I am sure Federer would not mind winning another US Open.

It's that time of the year. It's US OPEN TIME! And the Nadal-less funky draw is now known. Let's do a 8 seeds run down.

DJOKOVIC[1] won Wimbledon but has inexplicably played poorly in both Toronto and Cincinnati. But even when he plays poorly, it's probably still hard to beat him in a best of five match. I can see him going deep but at the cost of too much effort to have a shot in the end.

• R128:Schwartzman. 22 year old Argentinian with a 3W/8L record on tour. Ok.
• R64:Mathieu/Muller: two veterans. On a good day, Mathieu could prove difficult to handle from the back of the court. On a good day, it's tough to return Muller's serve. I suspect Djokovic will be ok though.
• R32: The seed isGarcia-Lopez, butLu(playing well at the moment) orQuerrey(just beat Garcia-Lopez in Winston-Salem) could go through. We're already in a type of player that are very hard to beat if they are in a good day and you are in a bad, even if your name is Djokovic.
• R16:Isneris the top seed, but his current level is a bit unclear. He won a 250 in Atlanta, but then got early exits in Washington and Toronto. He beat Anderson in Cinci though and played a very close match against Murray so... if not him,Kohlschreiber, who also lost early on north american hard court, but in a close match against in form Robredo and a very close match against eventual finalist Ferrer. No super in form unseeded guy in this part too... all the better for Djokovic I guess?

MURRAY[8] pays a heavy price for his low seeding: next to Djokovic! Also played tamely on that hard court swing. I suspect he is slightly injured in his back and because of it struggles with his serve and backhand.

• R128:Haase, a good but irregular player (went as high as 33, now 70) and most at ease on clay.
• R64:Stepanek, the 35 year old all court trickster actually won his last match against Murray at the Queen's Club! He did not do much since his good grass swing though.
• R32:Verdascois the seed and while he is not at is best, I am not sure who would prevent him from going through to this stage.
• R16:TsongaandBenneteauare the two seeds here and for me Tsonga is one of the favorites of the tournament. I found him extremely impressive in Toronto and for me his early defeat in Cinci was just because he did not have time to digest his huge win, rest and refocus in three days. That said, he can easily crap the bed against an in form Benneteau or why not a big servingNedovyesov.

WAWRINKA[3] is a bit of a mystery as he has been very up and down this season, with amazing ups (Australian Open, Monte-Carlo) and abysmal downs (French Open, Cinci). We'll see how it goes. I hope he plays well because Davis cup is around the corner!

• R128:Vesely, a youngster with potential. Could be tricky.
• R64:MahutorBellucci. Brazillian Bellucci is a dirt baller and has not done much lately, Mahut and his super aggressive net-rushing style could be dangerous though.
• R32:Chardyis the seed... but maybe americanYoungwill go through? A good Chardy can beat anyone because of his attacks and a good Young is tough to beat because of his defense (the american Ferrer in a way)!
• R16: Very tough to call. The seeds areRobredoandYouzhny, but you also havePospisil,Roger-Vasselin,KyrgiosandStakhovskiin this part of the draw. That's a lot of people with weapons and/or in form. I'll narrow that to Pospisil and Robredo. Anyway, the guy who goes through will be playing well and offer a stern challenge to Wawrinka.

RAONIC[5] seems to be a reasonably smart and nice guy outside the court, but I must confess I do not like his game. Still it brought him to this 5th seed and he might very well go deep, because even if his return game is poor, his serve tend to be more reliable that those of most his opponents.

• R128: Qualifier
• R64: VeteranBecker.
• R32: The seed isRosolbut he might have hit self destruct before that. Rosol is typically the kind of guy that could beat Raonic but will probably lose because he'll serve two or three poor games.
• R16:Nishikoriis the seed but.... is he fit to play? If the answer is yes, he could very well beat Raonic as he did in the past. If the answer is no, the young americanSockhas a good shot to find his way through the draw for what would be a nice story. He might even beat Raonic if he finds his way there and who knows who will emerge from Wawrinka's part of the draw?

BERDYCH[6] is a bit of an enigma. It feels he lost early in a bunch of tournaments lately, but his losses came from the rackets of quality players. I guess the problem really is that we, as well as Berdych, expect to lose some but win most of these matches against in form Lopez or in form Cilic or in form Gulbis, but he lost the vast majority of them.

• R128:Hewittenjoys being here and is a thorn in anybody's side.
• R64:Klizana player with great potential that fell off the map somewhat. Will he climb back on it?
• R32: The seed isGiraldo. There is no clay around here though.
• R16: Pretty open section here too.Lopez,Gulbis, but alsoDodigor why not austrian youngsterThiemor even in form americanJohnson?

FERRER[4] had a so-so season by his lofty standards. He lost to some players that are not in the top 10 and he got slightly injured in spring. Still, the guy just played a very good final in Cinci and reached the quarter in Toronto.

• R128:Dzumhur, a 22 year old from Bosnia. Never heard of the guy, but at 5'9'' I suspect he will have to out-Ferrer Ferrer. Nishikori can do that, but I suspect Dzumhur will find it difficult.
• R64:TomicorBrownthat is a funny first round match that sadly will most likely be on court 87523. Both have weapons to hurt Ferrer though. At least with Brown we know that no rally will be played.
• R32:Simonis the seed and his record is pretty poor against Ferrer. It's also a case of a player who has to try and beat the spaniard at his own game.
• R16:Cilic,Andersonand the now unseededJanowiczare in this part of the draw. Who ever emerges, it will be a hard fought match.

DIMITROV[7] is actually on a pretty good run. He won the Queen's, reached the semi of Wimbledon where he pushed Djokovic to a very tight 4 setters, reached the semi of Toronto where Tsonga was unplayable and lost early to Janowicz in Cinci, something that certainly can be pardoned. I don't see why he would not go deep at the US Open.

• R128:Harrisonat home could offer a stern test.
• R64:BerlocqorSela. Ok.
• R32:Sousais the seed, but belgianGoffinis playing very well these past few weeks. Probably not well enough though.
• R16:GasquetandMonfilsare the seeds. They both come with question marks attached, but that still coud lead to a good match.

FEDERER[2] is last but not least. Surprisingly, with his titles in Cinci and Halle as well as finals in Wimbledon and Toronto, the World N?3 is the de facto favorite. In fact, with a good run at the US Open, people even see him as a potential World N?1 by the end of the year! But let's not get too excited, in this brilliant run, there was no shortage of ups and downs and while the results are here and the very net-oriented style of play is a source of much enthusiasm for fans of the maestro, Federer does not don the air of invincibility he once had. To use a saying used in Switzerland: one must not set the plow before the oxen!

• R128:Matoseviccan play well. Well enough? Probably not.
• R64:Ramos-Vinolas/Groth: two players with very slim Grand Slam achievements. Groth though has an all time tennis record. He served the fastest serve ever at a staggering 163.7 mph (263 km/h).
• R32:Karlovicis the top seed. But in best of five he could be outdone byGranollersorNieminen.
• R16:Fogniniis the top seed and could very well play a good match on a night session in the Arthur Ashe stadium, but he has plenty of occasions to beat himself before that. Mr percentage tennisBautista-Agutis the other seed.

Federer has a path to the final that is paved by opponents against which he has very good records, even if a Dimitrov could outdo his model and Ferrer showed that he is absolutely in with a shot despite all these losses... Who will emerge from the top half though? It's a mystery. Who ever that is will be playing well.