The Astronomy Thread

LachiusTZ · Sep 26, 2019

Big Phoenix said:
Being serious. If youre goal is to just go to there for the sake of going, stopping by the Moon first would be wasting a lot money and time you could put towards going to Mars.

Nah the conversation is about putting down roots. Not planting a flag.

at least I think. Hard to tell with some of the powerful dumbs floating around.

and for the resources we would put into planting that flag, we could begin putting down roots on the moon.

right now, Mars doesn’t make sense

khorum · Sep 26, 2019

More importantly there are actual economic reasons to settle on the moon, not just as a stepping stone to Mars. Noone suggested going there just for the sake of going.

There's already the potential of the moon's proximity, lack of an atmosphere and low gravity for use as an observatory complex. There's the European and Chinese Space Agency's proposed Helium-3 mining and there's even a private effort to mine the moon for water.

Besides, the moon will probably be the necessary testbed for the automated mining and construction technologies we'd need for Mars. The tools and technologies for a successful Martian program can be iterated and perfected on the moon first, without the years-long round trip to Mars.

LachiusTZ · Sep 26, 2019

khorum said:
More importantly there are actual economic reasons to settle on the moon, not just as a stepping stone to Mars. Noone suggested going there just for the sake of going.

There's already the potential of the moon's proximity, lack of an atmosphere and low gravity for use as an observatory complex. There's the European and Chinese Space Agency's proposed Helium-3 mining and there's even a private effort to mine the moon for water.

Besides, the moon will probably be the necessary testbed for the automated mining and construction technologies we'd need for Mars. The tools and technologies for a successful Martian program can be iterated and perfected on the moon first, without the years-long round trip to Mars.

Right right I hear you.

But Mars is red, so we should do that first.

khorum · Sep 26, 2019

LachiusTZ said:
Right right I hear you.

But Mars is red, so we should do that first.

Lol honestly the argument is moot. The prospect of iterating through designs and testing them directly on Mars is many orders of magnitude more expensive than testing shit like ISRU systems for fuel and automated mining/construction on the Moon first so anyone with a serious Mars program will likely do that anyway.

It's one of the reasons SpaceX's raptor engines can run both on lox+methane AND lox+hydrogen---because an ISRU plant on the moon can electrolyze the hydrogen from lunar ice and they can use the more efficient methane fuel on Mars.

LachiusTZ · Sep 26, 2019

khorum said:
Lol honestly the argument is moot. The prospect of iterating through designs and testing them directly on Mars is many orders of magnitude more expensive than testing shit like ISRU systems for fuel and automated mining/construction on the Moon first so anyone with a serious Mars program will likely do that anyway.

It's one of the reasons SpaceX's raptor engines can run both on lox+methane AND lox+hydrogen---because an ISRU plant on the moon can electrolyze the hydrogen from lunar ice and they can use the more efficient methane fuel on Mars.

Right but Mars has ice, so aliens.

And it's red.

Gavinmad · Sep 26, 2019

khorum said:
Lol honestly the argument is moot. The prospect of iterating through designs and testing them directly on Mars is many orders of magnitude more expensive than testing shit like ISRU systems for fuel and automated mining/construction on the Moon first so anyone with a serious Mars program will likely do that anyway.

It's one of the reasons SpaceX's raptor engines can run both on lox+methane AND lox+hydrogen---because an ISRU plant on the moon can electrolyze the hydrogen from lunar ice and they can use the more efficient methane fuel on Mars.

But how well do they run on Minmus?

Cybsled · Sep 26, 2019

LachiusTZ said:
Right but Mars has ice, so aliens.

And it's red.

It's also difficult, which is why it is attractive. Same reason people to ultra mythic raids/ultimate versions...they want to be first.

It's not an either/or situation. And to be honest, private industry is going to have to spearhead this, because every 4/8 years, some new president comes in and goes "lol fuk these old plans, we doing this shit now". It literally happens every single time a new president gets into office.

khorum · Sep 26, 2019

Gavinmad said:
But how well do they run on Minmus?

See that's the point! If everyone would just play through KSP on campaign mode with the realism mods, they'd understand that even a BASIC mission to Duna would require years' worth of iterating and perfecting the mission stack at MUN first. Getting the orbital docking ops right and then the ISRU gear settled on the surface and getting back. None of that is possible within finite budgetary constraints unless you build and test the entire mission stack somewhere way WAAY closer.

Gavinmad · Sep 26, 2019

khorum said:
None of that is possible within finite budgetary constraints unless you build and test the entire mission stack somewhere way WAAY closer.

And you have to do it all without quicksaves or a revert flight button.

Ukerric · Sep 26, 2019

Gavinmad said:
The Great Filter theory does not assume that the improbable step is in the future, we could have already gone past the point at which most life is assumed to fail.

Or it's just possible that certain things that sci-fi takes for granted aren't actually possible. If FTL travel is impossible then it's entirely possible that there could be an interstellar civilization in the same galaxy as us that will never encounter us because the galaxy is just too large. If advanced methods of terraforming never materialize than the growth of an interstellar civilization would be incredibly slow, especially one that can only travel at sublight. etc etc

Even with sublight travel at 1% light speed, a single technological species with about a hundred years more than us can colonize the entire galaxy by hopping around, filling a new planet in 5000 year, and then going again, in about a dozen million years. That's the essence of Fermi's "paradox" (more like a "honest question"). The mere fact that we're not a space colony of aliens already requires one of those possibilities:

- We're the first (Great Filters are behind us)
- Something kills every technological civilization within a couple thousand years (the Great Filter is ahead of us)
- Something causes the extinction of every technological species within less than a million years, and the renewal rate of technological civilizations is small enough that we missed getting colonized (the Great Filters are behind us, but there's a Lesser Filter ahead)

(all arguments about "what if civilizations don't decide to colonize" fail with the fact that the first who decides to do so gets the galaxy. It only takes one. Anything that prevents colonization must be close to 100%)

Ukerric · Sep 26, 2019

Cybsled said:
It also makes assumptions that Dyson Spheres/Shkadov engines are a natural progression of technology for a highly advanced civilization,

"All it takes is one" is the most powerful force in the Fermi paradox.

Aldarion · Sep 26, 2019

Ukerric said:
Even with sublight travel at 1% light speed, a single technological species with about a hundred years more than us can colonize the entire galaxy by hopping around, filling a new planet in 5000 year, and then going again, in about a dozen million years. That's the essence of Fermi's "paradox" (more like a "honest question"). The mere fact that we're not a space colony of aliens already requires one of those possibilities:

- We're the first (Great Filters are behind us)
- Something kills every technological civilization within a couple thousand years (the Great Filter is ahead of us)
- Something causes the extinction of every technological species within less than a million years, and the renewal rate of technological civilizations is small enough that we missed getting colonized (the Great Filters are behind us, but there's a Lesser Filter ahead)

(all arguments about "what if civilizations don't decide to colonize" fail with the fact that the first who decides to do so gets the galaxy. It only takes one. Anything that prevents colonization must be close to 100%)

Why cant it be "We're the first" and "there is no great filter"?

Not saying thats my position, but wouldnt that also explain the observed state?

MusicForFish · Sep 26, 2019

Are we forgetting that theres weapons grade nuclear fall out covering Mars?

iannis · Sep 26, 2019

It would, and that is one serious answer.

Something has to be first.

It's hard to believe that without a few thousand more years of observation though.

khorum · Sep 26, 2019

Aldarion said:
Why cant it be "We're the first" and "there is no great filter"?

Not saying thats my position, but wouldnt that also explain the observed state?

That's the default state of the Great Filter hypothesis, until we get evidence of life on other planets, at which point the probabilities scale catastrophically against our favor. It's basically a probabilistic argument using bayesian inference.

The fact is we have the empirical basis for the incidence of at least five mass extinctions on the one planet we know bears life---each of which eradicated at least 86% of all life and one of which killed off 96% of all life on Earth (the Permian die-off, the second most recent). We know that all of these happened within less than half a billion years from the present, less than 13% of the Earth's lifetime.

So we know that even the most ideal biospheres are susceptible to mass extinctions that FILTER life at macro scales; IE: we KNOW that the global extinction events that would qualify under the Great Filter can, do and have happened in our sample size of just one planet. Once we have evidence that mass extinctions can and did happen on another planet and have resulted in 100% extinctions, then that sample doubles and the bayesian statisitical inference becomes immediately stacked against us by an order of magnitude.

Cybsled · Sep 26, 2019

Ukerric said:
Even with sublight travel at 1% light speed, a single technological species with about a hundred years more than us can colonize the entire galaxy by hopping around, filling a new planet in 5000 year, and then going again, in about a dozen million years.

In theory vs practicality. If they are a limited life span species, then your only options are a) stasis tech b) artificial augmentation (ie, cyborgs c) generation ships. In all scenarios, there has to be a strong drive to basically abandon your life as you know it and everyone you know (or to expand in such a fashion if they aren’t beholden to individualistic desires)

LachiusTZ · Sep 26, 2019

Cybsled said:
It's also difficult, which is why it is attractive. Same reason people to ultra mythic raids/ultimate versions...they want to be first.

It's not an either/or situation. And to be honest, private industry is going to have to spearhead this, because every 4/8 years, some new president comes in and goes "lol fuk these old plans, we doing this shit now". It literally happens every single time a new president gets into office.

Lol what?

Mars is vastly harder. And we havent done Moon.

Thats like saying, "Fuck cold Fusion, shit is too easy. Lets knock out time travel and FTL instead. Thats a real challenge."

Cybsled · Sep 26, 2019

We’ve been to the moon is the point. We haven’t stayed long, but we’ve put boots there.

While the moon and Mars have some basic similarities in terms of long term habitation, they’re also extremely different to the point where moon isn’t a required precursor to Mars

1987 · Sep 26, 2019

A couple things. If we find life on mars or europa/enceladus it would be much more interesting if it was not based one the same DNA coring that earth life is based upon. If a biogenesis occured two or more times separately within our solar system it would essentially mean that life is ubiquitous throughout the cosmos. Instead of it being possible that some asteroid impact carried some tardigrades through space with the same earth based dna structure.

As far as the fermi paradox is concerned, the assumption is that an advanced alien civilization developed interstellar/intergalactic travel long enough ago to have resched us by now. The same could also be said for radio wave communications. There are stars in our own galaxy that are 70,000 light years away. There could be a civilization 60,000 years more advanced than us, and we wouldnt know it yet. Or we have to assume that they have developed FTL travel. In either case, the advanced civilization would have no interest in communicating with us. Any robotic tech they have would be infinitely better than a human slave, and any natural resources earth had to take, would be neglibile against the resources required to power any civ that advanced.

Same goes for A.I. engaging with humans would be a waste of their time.

1987 · Sep 26, 2019

LachiusTZ said:
Right but Mars has ice, so aliens.

And it's red.

Wonder where the dems fall on this. They love aliens, but hate red....unless its communist red.

E.t.a. to mars triggering peeps due to original sin racism?

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