Has he ever said it won't sell? I can't recall that.Even if UT has a point and this game is mediocre at best, I can't see this one failing anytime soon.
You can see just by the initial pre orders that's its already doing well. What will probly happen is it will go pay to play about 5 months or less after release.
UT you were wrong about the consoles failing , and you are wrong about this.
As someone else just stated in this thread, his anger is towards the developers (certain ones), and how they have made the game and continue to market it. He has said that the paid model will not work with what the have managed to develop, it is not good enough, which you seemingly agree with.
Just because the game sells well does not mean he is wrong. It will sell on name alone, that is his very point. That the developers seemingly know the brand name will sell, but have not developed something that lives up to the name.
He is further angered by him supposedly knowing that they they are selling this as a box sale, subscription mmo, when they already have fully intended to turn it into a F2P mmo fairly quickly. He also thinks their marketing is very anti consumer, and that they are going so far as having paid people on forums to crack down on negativity.
He will be right about it going F2P. He is right about it not living up to the Elder Scrolls name in many ways. He can also be right about it hurting the Elder Scrolls name by introducing many people to the series with a game that is missing much of what the series stand for. Sort of a Skyrim lite. It still sells, so next game might be developed with an attitude of "hey they are satisfied with less, so we don't really have to stretch for the moon on making the next one". Though hopefully the next single player Elder Scrolls benchmarks itself to Skyrim, not TESO.
We will never know if he is right about the other stuff, as they are internal. We don't know what internal plans they have for F2P or not as the actual developers will never officially reveal that info, so we are left with believing or not believing statements such as "I know X developers of the team and I know they have done this". But that is hearsay, and will never be facts as developers won't risk their jobs confirming negative work situations.
If he is right about his conspiracy about the posters here I don't know. However, I do know that Ut is a poster who doesn't have the usual negativity that is easy to respond to like "wow clone!" or "x feature sucks!". He talks about specifically named developers, teams and the internal struggles as well as intricate coding issues due to engines. Ut usually goes after things that are specific enough to be facts, not features that come down to opinion if they should be there or not. So responding to him against an argument he is making isn't just a statement of having a different opinion, but about him being outright wrong. Usually not the things you respond much too as the detail is above most peoples heads/care, and responses like "well I like the game! it will sell!" doesn't have anything to do with what he is saying.
Not the subjects that usually gets people to crawl out of the woodwork to respond to unlike a discussion on a feature like death penalties or quest hubs which people usually have strong opinions about and is easy to say "this what I like and this is best!". I remember that well from Vanguard. He posted a lot about that too. Said it would fail, but not due to gameplay features, which I could respond to, but about developers and engine problems I have no knowledge of. I could just hope he was wrong, which sadly he wasn't. Continuously trying to counter his arguments seem strange to me considering his issues are usually with behind the scenes stuff.
Only thing I think that is left that he could be directly wrong about is in regards to the statements of the engine and what it can or can't do. If some things will be broken in the game without it being fixable due to what he thinks they did with the Hero engine. We will know that at release I guess (or when NDA drops).
So far though
- Not showing all content
- No plan of open beta
- Long NDA
- Pushing pre-orders like crazy
Have to be fairly new to the mmo game or gaming in general to not believe that they indeed are milking pre-orders for initial sales, holding back info because they know it would drop pre-order sales, not gain them.
I am not writing this to defend Ut. I have no idea if he is right or not. However, looking at the past (games that previously have done what TESO is now doing), I am more than jaded enough to think that Ut is more right than wrong.