SWTOR might be a good model for TESO after a few months. Offer limited free to play, but gate the really fun stuff behind a sub.
The wild card really will be how the MMO translates to PS4 and Xbone.
Seems like ESO is extremely well suited to flip to a profitable F2P model ala SWTOR imo.
A lot is instanced just like TOR, so that means you can essentially shut people out of whole areas
("Like PvP? Want to see Cyrodil? For only $5 monthly you can be part of the largest..."). The game is pretty compartmentalized from what I saw, granted it was only a weekend. They are already starting off with the paywall (Imps) as well as a cash shop so doesn't take much to tweak it heavily in the other direction. (Soul gems, finite number of skills, etc)
This seems to be the mentality of ZOS from what I gathered:
More like "Yeah we don't PLAN to crash the plane, but if we fail to plan for a plane crash..."
I don't think console holds much hope and I'm not sure they do either though. A $60 game (even if they drop it down to $40) console players are used to. But if you tell them pay $15/month to PvP after that, or skulk around in caves where the loot and danger is already gone, good luck. Most of them squawk about paying the PSN or Xbox gold fees which gives them FREE games for $50 a year. No way in hell they get even a token amount of subs if those people are able to do basic math averaged out over a year. You can't get blood out of stones.
Even SOE learned that from DCUO and soon, Planetside 2. Only FFXIV can put up a sub game on a console and not really care if too many people sub through it or not; their fanbase isn't really going anywhere. ArcheAge just turned F2P from P2P in Japan which shows people there will not really support much of anything outside of a Final Fantasy mmo's sub.
I really do think they could get people to pay $5/month to PvP, while restricting most of the other functions (and some basic things in common areas). As people said here, there aren't too many other choices for people to do that other than GW2 these days, and a lot of people don't think $5 is out of the ordinary.