What I'm saying is that I estimate there to be a 66% chance of a Trump nom and an 80% chance of a Hillary nomination. Which means that the odds of a Trump vs Hillary race are about 50%.
So the existence of all the other current candidates up there is totally legitimate. Is that the most likely outcome? Yes. By far. But it's still only 50%. And if it doesn't come to pass and something surprising happens whether it's Hillary being indicted, the RNC brokering to fucking Paul Ryan or Trump being offed by some liberal terrorist the people who think it's certain will be in here saying, "I was wrong about it being certain, but who could have predicted that will happen?".