Investing General Discussion

Fogel · Dec 7, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Im thinking about a trailing stop on my QQQ position. Its my single largest holding.

What % you thinking about?

Fogel · Dec 7, 2020

My 15$ MP puts are being stubborn, its up 16% and they initially went under .10 but have gone back up a couple pennies, weird.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Fogel said:
What % you thinking about?

Its got support in the 287-295 range. Then it should start falling it if crashes through. Im trying to weigh factors like Brexit, Vaccine, Stimulus bill, End of Year, Over-extended etc.. Its tough.
Im thinking really tight at 3%. We have had 9 straight green days on the QQQ and we are up so far today. Statistically, it has got to pull back and then I see a rush to the door to lock in profits. Or I could be totally wrong.

edit: I really want to stress the last part. I could be totally wrong.

edit 2: I am also looking closely at the open puts I still have active. Closing out for a few more pennies than I have been is a consideration.

Flobee · Dec 7, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Sold about 10% of my play money...

Tempted to move my TSP out of the market

I essentially did this in like April expecting a pullback selling 50% from index and regretted it. I got lucky with some things elsewhere to more than make up the deficit but I don't think I'll sell TSP/401k index shares again. If market does go down soon you're presumably still buying the pullback and the bottom so you're going to come out ahead long-term which is the point of these funds anyhow.

In my mind hedging against the pullback that most of us expect is more a factor of owning other asset classes than simply buying the dip. This pullback comes with some systemic risks associated with it (Insolvency risk from rent moratorium ending, contracting credit market, demographic issues, lack of growth to sustain pensions) and hedging IMO requires thinking outside of normal asset allocations. For me this is accomplished from owning assets that I think will be important in a post-insolvency world.

Personally I believe that we're going to see that the traditional financial markets are primed to be disrupted via crypto. Specifically stable coins issued from US regulated banks becoming the backbone of international transactions, cutting out banks as middle men. As such I want to own the network that stablecoins run on (ETH) and what I would expect to be the most important asset in this environment outside of the network itself (BTC).

Cash seems smart as well (asset deflation comes before any potential big move in inflation as I understand it) as I expect there to be pullbacks in EVERY market short term if any systemic issues do crop up. Should be big buying opportunities for those that are prepared. I just think crypto blasts out of any short term market pullbacks as I don't see it as correlated to the (IMO) dying traditional finance system in any meaningful way other than being a liquid market that will likely sell off to cover other positions.

My $0.02 as a guy that has been pretty obsessed with the macro market situation we're in.

Since this is the investing thread, I'll add that I've been accumulating a small position in TLT as I expect that 30 year yields will go lower which is directly counter to market sentiment as per the record level of shorts. Keeping the trade small as its obviously a longshot but should see a nice bump in TLT price if US treasury yields do in fact follow the rest of the world and go lower or even negative.

Khane · Dec 7, 2020

The news on PLTR winning that FDA contract makes me want to buy back in. But the taste of having already taken profits and having to pay short term cap gains and then immediately buying back in is making me illogical.

TJT · Dec 7, 2020

TSLA is on the way back up too. I bought 3 before the split now I'm up 3.5k on it... god that stock is retarded.

But I also have taken a bit of short term profit for the first time ever this year and am reluctant to take more. Uncle Sam is already going to give me a sore asshole in a few months.

Khane · Dec 7, 2020

This is the first time I've ever going to have to pay on short term gains and I don't like it. I don't like it at all.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Khane said:
This is the first time I've ever going to have to pay on short term gains and I don't like it. I don't like it at all.

lol would you prefer the alternative of writing off a loss?

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Everything EV related is exploding upwards today. Cars, parts, rare earths. I took advantage and closed out all of my puts that were selling for under 10 cents.

Indyocracy · Dec 7, 2020

Fogel said:
I bit the bullet and was assigned my 3 PLTR puts at 27, just couldn't find a good roll so I figured I'd just take the shares and do calls. Opened covered calls @ 30 strike for .35 a share

Listening to you got me to start selling PLTR puts, been making a solid 1.5% return weekly, would have done better just buying the stock but that is hindsight heh

Fogel · Dec 7, 2020

Indyocracy said:
Listening to you got me to start selling PLTR puts, been making a solid 1.5% return weekly, would have done better just buying the stock but that is hindsight heh

Profit is profit, and in the long run it won't have this growth forever. The several weeks that it was at 10 I was still making 1%, so it'll average out in the end. 1% weekly gains is 52% by the end of the year. Not to many people will complain about 52% a year.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Indyocracy said:
Listening to you got me to start selling PLTR puts, been making a solid 1.5% return weekly, would have done better just buying the stock but that is hindsight heh

For me, the biggest difference is tying up capital. I am comfortable making those smaller returns but having my capital freed up to shift to different opportunities on a regular basis. Its also about realizing those gains vs the paper gains on a long position.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Fogel said:
My 15$ MP puts are being stubborn, its up 16% and they initially went under .10 but have gone back up a couple pennies, weird.

Some stocks the options price is very sticky. for example MP and VLDR are moving a ton but the options aren't as much. I attribute that to the options traders not believing the price action is going to be sustained.

Fogel · Dec 7, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Some stocks the options price is very sticky. for example MP and VLDR are moving a ton but the options aren't as much. I attribute that to the options traders not believing the price action is going to be sustained.

It's only moving both ways 10-20% a day, where would they get that idea!?

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

PLTR - The thing I see with PLTR is that is is spreading out to government agencies beyond the intel community. I see this company at some point being so tied in to the governments that its unassailable moat will be the fact that all its employees and software are vetted at the highest levels already.

Market Chatter: Palantir Technologies Wins $44.4 Million Software Contract with FDA
MT NEWSWIRES 2:25 PM ET 12/7/2020
Symbol Last Price Change
PLTR 27.6499up +3.7999 (+15.9325%)
QUOTES AS OF 02:25:23 PM ET 12/07/2020
02:25 PM EST, 12/07/2020 (MT Newswires) -- Palantir Technologies(PLTR) will provide software to help the Food and Drug Administration'sCenter for Drug Evaluation and Research and the Oncology Center for Excellence review drug data, according to Bloomberg.

The three-year deal is worth $44.4 million. The software will be used to help the agency analyze data for drug application reviews and monitor product safety, Bloomberg said.

Government contracts, both in the U.S. and abroad, now account for more than half of Palantir's(PLTR) revenue. The company recently raised its revenue target for 2020, the news company said.

Shares of Palantir(PLTR) were up 15% in afternoon trading Monday.

LachiusTZ · Dec 7, 2020

Jesus fucking Christ Tesla...

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Jesus fucking Christ Tesla...

Pre-split price is $3280. Market cap over 600 billion.

ps.. thats amateur price movement. Look at LAZR.

LachiusTZ · Dec 7, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Pre-split price is $3280. Market cap over 600 billion.

ps.. thats amateur price movement. Look at LAZR.

Are you insinuating I don't read this thread? Lol

Tbh, I don't think anything really compares to Tesla, just with sheer value.

It's the most valuable auto maker in the world, and has made half a million cars?

Everyone thought it was bananas over valued at 400/share, now it's screaming up to 650

It's just fucking nuts.

Locnar · Dec 7, 2020

Glad PLTR is rising again, its going to be hard for shitposters like Citron to keep pulling rugs if these deals keep getting signed.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 7, 2020

Locnar said:
Glad PLTR is rising again, its going to be hard for shitposters like Citron to keep pulling rugs if these deals keep getting signed.

It would have been a little nicer if it had waited a week or so until my $35 calls were expiring.

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