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https://www.slashfilm.com/1443470/disney-delay-marvel-deadpool-3-captain-america-4-blade-more/ FCF boost for today. No media revenues for tomorrow. Just as I predicted.

Not the Oracle!?

30Yr auction going wrong again. Markets dont like it. Long end yield spike across the board. TLT -3% *(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 4.769% V 4.189% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.24 V 2.42 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER THE LAST FOUR AUCTIONS; >500 bps tail - Source TradeTheNews.com

I had read about DIS FCF in Q3 was 3x the size of their entire FY22 FCF. Reigning in costs is important. However, I am curious about how much of that cash is due to them axing streaming and film media projects after the recent bad press and box office bombs. This just means there is a longer gap...

Re EVs: You guys do know that it takes a lot of time and capital to scale up a new car company? The upfront costs are substantial and it takes many years to achieve profitability. Investors like to see demand to scale into. For perspective, Tesla took 17 YEARS to become profitable and that only...

IWM also down 1.6% today isn't confidence inspiring. This has been the leading indicator for months now. In the same boat as Blazin in that I am waiting to see how the first real pullbacks are treated. Need to see some buying demand to add anything back.

Front page of Bloomberg: Stock is still only down ~1% after hours. Can't kill this thing.

All of that said, Apple has had declining revenues all year and still just plowed on upwards in share price. 117B > 94B > 81B

My SPY gain from 410.5 I have trimmed half, as I am skeptical of AAPL earnings tonight and leading into a potential Fri risk-off move. (yes I can be dead wrong on this, but trying to be prudent and taking some profits.)

Zillow stock down nearly 10% on this news. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/realestate/nar-antitrust-lawsuit.html

30 Oct 23:02 [NVDA] *Said to have $5.0B in China orders in limbo after the latest US chip curbs; Reportedly halted plans for rush deliveries of China orders - US financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Nice timing. TLT catching a bid on: (US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $776B in Oct-Dec quarter v $845Be - Source TradeTheNews.com (less borrowing Q4 vs expected)

I did consider that I may have chosen my words poorly there. “Luckily” or perhaps “unfortunately” filled those shares. We are down a heck of a lot on this pull in. Even if this isn’t the overall bottom, we are due for a bounce. Nothing ever moves in straight lines and we’ve baked a hell of a lot...

Kind of a shitty day to pick for flying halfway around the world. I did set an order out there though and luckily grabbed a fill.

Quick reminder. Cash is a position. Especially when Fidelity is paying me 5% on it.

For context. Japanese intervention is at high risk at 150+. TLDR version is US yields spike massively. Yields spiking is a very real threat to stability right now...

MSFT stated growing Cloud revs in earnings yesterday, so there's speculation that has come at the expense of AMZN.

JPY USD hit 150. VIX moving up, 10Y yield moving back to highs, Netanyahu beating the war drums. SPY and QQQ sitting on some critical support before an abyss below. QQQ nearly at -2.5% on the day Trying not to be cute and contrarian and loading up too much. @Blazin ?

IWM dumping the day's gains and SPY closing below the 200D again isn't the greatest look.

SPY retesting the 200D

Car Owners Fall Behind on Payments at Highest Rate on Record Car Owners Fall Behind on Payments at Highest Rate on Record

I know you can buy directly through Fidelity. No clue on SoFi

We aren't oversold on the Daily for SPY either. Came into session midrange of RSI and a ways from lower Bollingers. Wouldn't be surprised to get a big shakeout still. OpEx today as well, but I think there are a ton of Puts ITM currently. Maybe this pop is to get them to book profits and close...

Yea, shit got all wacky during / after Powell Q&A. TLT new 52w low. VIX closed above 21. OpEx tomorrow. Buckle up kids!

Shit is getting frisky. Long some LMT. 14:43(IQ) Drones, rockets attack Iraq's Ain Al-Asad airbase, multiple blasts heard inside the base - press - Source TradeTheNews.com Plus https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/us-navy-intercept-missiles-yemen/index.html

Love watching El-Erian shitting on Powell. Never gets old.

@Gravel post of the year there bud. Hahah

We hit 4.996% to be precise.

4.99% 10yr

If this bounce sticks, could be a great scoop. TLT already trading highs of day. DXY, Yields, and VIX all falling. Maybe a day for a market bounce. Need Powell to wear his dovish tie today!

Tesla down 10%. Feel much better after my rant last night.

You also get underlying cost rise in something like TLT 20yr bond etf. Hence my layering in as I believe we are closer to terminal rate. (My guess, not advice). As soon as something breaks and Fed is forced to make a cut, TLT should appreciate by a fair margin. If you outright own an actual...

This is also why dividend paying names get crushed in high rate environments. Who wants to own something like T or KO when you have underlying stock price volatility in order to get your 3-6% div yield? Stock price can dive and you’ve got to claw your way back to break even. Why not just lock in...

To quickly add on this, inversions happen early in these cycles as most just think the economic turbulence is short lived. It takes much longer for the long durations to catch up. The Fed has been repeating itself for months now about “higher for longer”. Investors are finally taking that on...

Tesla double miss. How the fuck this is green AH is beyond me. 16:01 [TSLA] Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.73e, Rev $23.4B v $24.4Be; Cybertruck deliveries on track for later this year; More than doubled the size of its AI training compute - Affirms FY23 vehicle production at 1.8M and to remain ahead...

Nearly every duration at or above 5% yield.

Fun watch.