Come on now, Roethlisberger was drafted 11th overall in 2004. Hardly an underdog or late pick.
While nothing is a sure thing, 1st round guys have a MUCH higher rate of being starters and even pro-bowlers than any round after them. Yeah, some flame out, but a much higher % make it from the 1st round than any other round.
Just look at that 2004 draft for example
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NFL_Draft
15 pro-bowlers out of the 32 picks in the first round, with multiple future Hall of Famers in Eli Manning, Roethlesberger, probably Larry Fitzgerald, and a longshot HOF chance for guys like Stephen Jackson and Jonathan Vilma(their names will be discussed, but will probably never get in thanks to playing on mediocre to flat-out bad teams).
2nd round produced 3 pro bowlers, 3rd round produced 6, 4th round produced 3. Only guy out of those 3 rounds with a decent shot at the HOF at this point is probably Jared Allen, from the 4th round.
Look at any draft where you've had a good 8-10 years to evaluate the talent and the VAST majority of the elite players in that draft were in the first round.
As a side note, more undrafted players (7) became pro-bowlers than any round of guys after the 1st in the draft. That's pretty typical. A teams first-round pick needs to be a cornerstone of the team for the next decade. You miss on too many of those and your team goes to shit.
Every year is like that. The year after in 2005 had 12 Pro bowlers in the 1st round, 5 in the 2nd, 3 in the 3rd. The year before in 2003 had 13 pro bowlers in the 1st round, 7 in the 2nd, 3 in the third.
So to summarize, the 1st round generally puts as many pro-bowlers into the league as damn near the whole rest of the draft combined.
