The Dark Forest Hypothesis always struck me as unlikely. Unless the resources to launch a preemptive strike against another alien world was too prohibitive, then by that logic, wouldn't it just make sense to destroy ANY planet that shows signs of alien life at even some moderate level of technology? I would think that any alien civilization that was developed enough to actually leave their own solar system to exploit additional resources, and actually had a program in place to essentially destroy potential future rivals, would also have the technology to identify exo-planets of note remotely through a large variety of methods. You wouldn't need a radio broadcast, you could literally just examine the spectrum of chemicals in an atmosphere and look for certain telltale signs.
via that guys summery, thats what any advanced society does do. The entire point of the stalemate is, back off, or we will make your home planet known to the greater universe.
Survival is based on not being noticed at all. Any blip for any reason is met with destruction. The test on the "unpopulated" world demonstrated this. And the universe is big enough, its easy to go unnoticed.
there is lots of discussion on this, with SETI, etc. The Earth already fucked up. Broadcasting our location in an infinitely spreading radio message was stupid and naive.
the stalemate existed.. briefly, between two middle/small fish. both didn't want to be noticed by the sharks.
My issue with that stalemate, via that guys summery is the obvious small fish strategy. expand, and out populate is the only viable option. A small fish simply can not survive on a single homeworld. A single homeworld is obviously fucked in intersellar war. unless some just magic unthinkable defensive tool is discovered. But, conversely, if you have speed of, or faster then speed of light travel. that system of travel itself can be weaponized to annihilate a planet or star.
Communication does help with the dark forest idea.. however, really what advantage is there to being nice? killing the alien life, and taking their tech, resources is infinitely superior.
we have plenty of colonization examples on Earth. Being NICE, destroyed rome, British empire, is destroying the US currently. Vilified for it even. While Ghengis khan just kicked ass and took names. dead people didn't complain generations later.
The second flaw with the thought process as described is destruction of the universe, resources. the universe IS big. but resources are not infinite. destroying a planet or system that can support life is kindof a dumb idea unless absolutely necessary. unless you have the means to terraform, or prevent/reclaim entropy.
