I'm sure he's just trolling at this point. He probably argued this in good faith originally. But then a few pages in, he realized that he fucked up and was already in too deep to back-peddle, so he'd rather double-down on ignorance to save face than admit being a dumbass.
A brain teasing probability puzzle
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Szlia
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2) is a subset of 1), so, no matter what, 1) should be more likely... but that sounds like the answer a statistician would give...
It's also the right answer. I don't get why any statistician would get that wrong. Seems to me people more interested in their intuition and less interested in the math would get that wrong.
It was so obvious to me that the answer is 1), but knowing it was a trick question, I had to google it to see what the 'gotcha' was, since I had to be wrong to answer it so fast.... Only to find that the answer is 1). I really don't know anyone could possibly answer 2). Something more general is always more probable than something specific. How is that not extreme common sense?
As to Araysar, I don't think his problem is with the math per se. His issue is he doesn't understand that the first choice matters. He see's that under all cases, the host throws away an option, so he thinks you can safely just ignore his action. Ignoring him since 100% of the time he picks a goat, your really only left with 2 choices: Your door has a car and the other door has a goat, or your door has a goat and the other door has a car. Hence 50/50.
Erronius
<WoW Guild Officer>
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Probably for the same reason that you had to go Google it - it sounds like a trick question and I'm guessing people start questioning their first answer.
Nah, he gets it. He may not have gotten it in the beginning, but even a retarded monkey would have gotten it by now. He gets it, and he knows hes wrong. But hey, sticking with ignorance is less wrong than reversing yourself and admitting that you were wrong in the first place.
DiddleySquat
Bronze Knight of the Realm
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Yeah, he gets it, but is too proud to admit it. You have to be Merlin level stupid to not understand it by now. A once great man said:
Anyway, it puts him in the same team as Aladain in the poll results:Bootsand50/50.
Asshat wormie
2023 Asshat Award Winner
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2 is not a subset of 1 because 2 is two seperate sets. If 2 was a subset of 1, that would mean a set containing all tellers is the same size(or bigger) than a set containing all tellers AND all feminists, which is obviously not the case. So, while your answer is correct, the assumption you used to derive that answer is not.
1 is correct because the set of all tellers is bigger than the intersection of a set containing all tellers and a set containing all feminists.
No statisticians would ever get that one wrong unless they are retarded. And araysar is trolling
In the original experiment by Tversky and Kahneman, 90% of respondents picked answer 2. If you make a quick decision on it, then the "feminist" part seems more representative of Linda, which is why people go with it. There are variations that report fewer people picking #2, but it's still a majority (goes down to like 60% if you rephrase it somewhat).
The reason everyone here is going to get it right is because it's in a thread on trick questions. But a whole lot of people will answer these questions without giving it much thought, simply picking the first answer that feels right. You do not get 90% picking a wrong answer without some underlying cause...
I had mentioned the cognitive reflection test. Here are the 3 questions for that one. Go through it quickly and note the first answer that jumps to mind.
[*]This is actually a really unrealistic example. If you start with a 1cm^2 patch of lillypads, they will cover an area half the size of Germany in 48 days.
What? A set containing all tellers and all feminists would be the inclusive OR set, not AND. The question states Linda is tellerandfeminist, not tellerorfeminist. AandB is the intersection of 2 sets. Since an intersecting set is a subset, 2 is in fact a subset of 1. Or did I miss something?
Maybe that's the trick of the question. People assume 'AND' means addition. Somethingandsomething else must be larger than just something. When in this case, AND is actually less than the original set.
Asshat wormie
2023 Asshat Award Winner
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Read what szila said again. He said that the set of tellers and feminists is a subset of the set of tellers. After you re read that, tell me again why i am wrong.
Edit: after rereading it myself it appears that i am the one who is wrong.
I'm pretty sure the trick of the question is that people think 1 and 2 are mutually exclusive. They interpret the choices as:
1. She's a teller, AND NOT a feminist.
2. She's a teller AND a feminist.
Since the extra information suggests that she's a feminist, they automatically pick 2. They don't consider that the probability that "she's a teller" already includes the probability that she's a teller and a feminist.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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I picked 1 right away. Clearly, the more specific the conditions, the less likely they are.
DiddleySquat
Bronze Knight of the Realm
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Ok, since you still seem to be open to reason, let me also give it a shot to explain.
Round 1: In the first round, your pick has a 1 in 3 chance to contain the car: p(your pick) = 33%
Round 2: The host opens one of the two unselected doors, revealing a goat. So now there are 2 doors still unopened, with a 100% chance of one of them containing the car. It's either behind your pick, or behind the other door. We know from step one that p(your pick) = 33%, so now we can derive that p(the other door) = 100%-p(your pick) = 100%-33% = 66%
So the strategy of always switching results in having a 66% win chance.
If this doesn't break the mental barrier down that blocks you from 'seeing it', try envisioning it with the 1000 doors variation.
Round 1: There's a 1000 doors, with 1 car and 999 goats behind. You pick a door. It has a 1 in 1000 chance (0.1%) of having the car.
Round 2: Now the host opens all other doors except 1. So he reveals 998 goats and leaves one door unopened. Then he asks you if you want to switch. You know the car is either behind your first pick, or behind the one door he left unopened.
Well, since your initial pick only has a 0.1% of being the correct door, the other door has a 100%-0.1% = 99.9% chance of containing the car. Again, to switch is the right strategy.
drtyrm
Lord Nagafen Raider
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And yet, after 6 pages, you still can't admit you are incorrect about the Monty Hall problem.
Dear baby jesus, please rickshaw this whole mess or rename it the "Araysar trolls the shit out of everyone" thread.
I'd hate to see what would happen if we were debating technically complex scenarios instead of one of the oldest (and completely settled) problems around
I'd hate to see what would happen if we were debating technically complex scenarios instead of one of the oldest (and completely settled) problems around