Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Flobee said:

Treasury's response to Biden EO on crypto got leaked allegedly. Looks like its gunna be "We're studying it" essentially. Price popped when this got posted/deleted.

Statement by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on President Biden's Executive Order on Digital Assets

WASHINGTON - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen released the following statement on President Biden's executive order on digital assets. "President Biden’s historic executive order calls for a coordinated and comprehensive approach to digital asset policy. This approach will...

web.archive.org

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Arden said:

"We're studying it" has been the policy for a while now.

If that Crypto.com news you posted is true, it should be driving down the market. Every other time there's been a margin call we've seen a substantial dip in the market.

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Tmac said:

Thanks for the notes.

Is this guy a doomer?

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Flobee said:

Simon Dixon, who I trust more than most in this space, has a more nuanced take on this EO. I'll summarize below but I highly suggest giving the video a listen. He's a weird dude but he knows his stuff and he is right much more often than he is wrong.



Tried to take some notes since video is an hour long. Did my best to make it legible but he does meander quite a bit.

Spoiler

• EO will be used to make Stablecoins into CBDCs (compete w/ Fedcoin). Will be used for automated tax collection, surveillance, and monetary policy (think individualized interest rates)
• DeFi and most crypto's will be classified as securities (SEC jurisdiction). To "protect" investors
• Bitcoin (maybe ETH) will be treated as commodities (CFTC jurisdiction).
• Alternative to above is the creation of new regulatory body/asset class Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs)
• US won't ban crypto/Bitcoin.
  
  
• Timing for this EO as related to RU/UK conflict - not a coincidence
• RU gold/oil reserve sanctions causing price increase will help RU long term, hurt most normal people
• RU $13b gold can only be sold to China at this point - China may buy to strengthen their CBDC - seat at 'Bretton Woods 3' upcoming monetary renegotiation
  • Gold to GDP ratio will determine if you get a seat at negotiations
• Bitcoin policy for countries that don't have gold reserves could give them a seat at the table
• China will reverse Bitcoin mining ban
  
  
• Russia will likely become an insulated economy - North Korea
• China holds a lot of gold (more than reported) competing with IMF. Holds $4.3 trillion in US Treasuries. US lever
  • IMF supplies USD debt-based loans to nation states, creating dependence on IMF/USD in third world countries, crippling them financially.
• US working to ensure USD stays relevant. Painting themselves as supporting BTC to ensure that data+coins stay in US during BTC/USD transactions.
• IMF will release CBDC
  • Fiat and commodity backed
  • US, Germany, China, Russia(if they can keep their gold) will negotiate significant role
  • Germany (via Euro)
  • UK will lose seat (Brexit)
• USD debased 90% since Bretton Woods (US world reserve)
• Bitcoin adoption countries will compete against IMF CBDC countries
  • Japan - Making moves(quietly) to be significant in BTC industry - longest standing supporters - multi-generational approach
  • RU + Ukraine were in a good position before the war.
  • South Korea
  • India - Don't trust banks Gold being converted to Bitcoin as generational wealth changes
  • El Salvador - BTC legal tender, highest risk/reward
    • Double digit growth MoM since adoption
      
• Results - Global CBDCs will be used to de-leverage global economy
  • Tool to move to socialist/communist systems using fiscal/monetary tools
  • CBDCs will not be debt based system
  • Privacy/freedom nightmare
  • Competes with Bitcoin standard
  • Gold will continue to be preserver of wealth
• Bitcoin is speculative store-of-value
• All crypto will be regulated. Decentralization will be attacked and largely controlled.
  • AML, sanctions, tax collection

• Simon speculates:
  • China buys Russian gold
    • political suicide or genius, depends on how things play out
    • Will cause war to spill out to NATO - WW3
  • Trump is political player again in 2024
    • Bring China back into focus
    • Antagonizes China - China is the "enemy" at this point
      • Trump defending US interests
      • Results in peace w/ Russia + change of focus
  • Inflation will continue to grow
    • War/Pandemics will continue to be excuse for money printing
    • Sanctions will continue to destroy wealth exacerbating issues
  • Global IMF CBDC will likely fail
    • Individual countries will scramble to create their own CBDCs
  • CBDC is a war on the banks
    • debt free money, does have upsides, solves some problems causes many more
    • AI controlled monetary policy
    • automated tax collection
    • automated sanctions
    • automated interest rates
    • embedded KYC
    • 'perfect' surveillance money
    • Fedcoin will eventually win - becomes world CBDC after significant competition
  • US military based foreign policy replaced by Chinese based "environmental crisis" - ESG based
  • Trump is blamed for fall of US empire
    • 'egoic' tribalism
    • US remains powerful due to Fedcoin proliferation
  • Bitcoin monetary policy gives individuals and businesses the ability to escape sovereign financial system manipulation.
    • Politically neutral
    • Tool for countries to say no to IMF debt etc
  • Next crisis is - Wealth inequality crisis
    • Need to learn to protect wealth in preparation for what is coming.
    • We live in the most exciting and interesting times in financial history

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Arden said:

Quite a lot of, uh, speculation there...

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Flobee said:

Some of it sure. I think most people are missing a lot of context that makes some of the things he says a lot less outrageous than they may appear though. That is the problem with trying to explain these systems, they are very complicated and you need to understand them to see how things are being directed. You don't move something like the world monetary system very quickly so if you know what you're looking at you can see the direction things are being steered pretty early.

If you assumed all political actions are aimed at manipulating the future of the monetary system in todays climate you wouldn't be far from the truth in my view. Its all about the monetary reset

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Aaron said:

I haven't been in here for a while, so forgive me if this has already been talked about, but why are cryptos tanking? Back a year or so ago I bought Bitcoin and Etherium because I was half expecting Russia to be sanctioned in one way or another, and that if they did end up being cut off from SWIFT then either case crypto would skyrocket as people would use that to circumvent sanctions. But the opposite has happened. Anyone care to point out the flaw in my reasoning and why this failed to happen?

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Aaron said:

I haven't been in here for a while, so forgive me if this has already been talked about, but why are cryptos tanking? Back a year or so ago I bought Bitcoin and Etherium because I was half expecting Russia to be sanctioned in one way or another, and that if they did end up being cut off from SWIFT then either case crypto would skyrocket as people would use that to circumvent sanctions. But the opposite has happened. Anyone care to point out the flaw in my reasoning and why this failed to happen?

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MrSpitz said:

Crypto is in tee ball and the Russian war is a major league game. It’s not ready

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