The forced aspect of the multiplayer is what I think will break it, because the people who want PvP and multiplayer end up getting a game that is toned down for the people who want the PvE experience (but can enjoy coop with friends).
The developers obviously want it to be multiplayer. Can see that in an easy example not not having an option to "turn off" other players. DansGaming for instance wants to play it as a single player game. Maybe group with chat from time to time for harder content. However, what he was met with immediately after hitting start and entering the lobby was people talking in a chat he could not turn off. Heard a kid, and suddenly they started swearing too. He had to enter the list of the lobby where everyone in the server was, and mute each person individually. No option to just turn off voice chat completely.
The PvP penalties push away the hardcore PvPers and forced multiplayer pushes away the people (majority?) who want a new Fallout game to explore without being hassled by other players.
This game needs individual servers with different rulesets. Things like
- FFA PvP full loot
- FFA PvP crafting loot
- PvP carebear (similar to what it is now)
- PvE
Then also let you tag your character with flags like
- Only multiplayer with (will make all other players invisible, and you are invisible to others)
---- All players / no restrictions
---- Friends list only
---- Nobody (can add a warning that the game is meant to be multiplayer, and some content will be close to impossible alone)
Letting people decide things like above would make it appeal to a far larger range of players rather than what they seem to be doing now. Missing the mark on both the PvP and the PvE crowd.
I am fairly certain that the vast majority of people who have ever mentioned "multiplayer" in a Fallout game ment the ability to have you and a friend running around in the world instead of you and a NPC companion. An option like that would be amazing in a Fallout game. However, what they are doing now I don't recall ever having being brought up in a Fallout (insert version here) forum thread.
I stand by my prediction of a major discount by Christmas, following a lower price without a sale by jan\feb. By mid 2019 it will be heading towards F2P with micro transactions. F2P will be launched with most of the things above, but also a mod store to tie in with the micro transactions. No Nexus mods, but tied to their own store to only let in pre-approved mods. Would also be surprised if this isn't already a plan in an internal development roadmap.