Hearthstone

They should have just delayed it until the week before the next expac since it's such an obvious cash grab.

Ravishing said:

• Like when trying to advance on ladder, you want to use the deck that has highest % win rate against the majority of decks you'll face.

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• 
  wow.. you really never comprehended that was the exact point I made.
  
  YOU said

Just gotta figure out what has highest winrate vs Shaman and go with it I imagine.

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Which is what I was responding to.

It was never an analogy for the current meta, it's a way to understand how metas change when wins/losses and eliminations are introduced during an event or tournament. I oversimplified the math to make it easier to comprehend, but you still got it wrong and now are acting superior while simultaneously not understanding what was said.

It has nothing to do with MTG itself, it has to do with predicting a meta over the course of a multi-round event, which does apply. It'd be like saying an ELO system only applies to chess. MTG doesn't have 100% winrate decks either.

When you want to really predict the performance of decks, you have to input their actual winrates against each deck, and how many of each deck is involved. That's where things like vicious syndicate's data report comes in, and exactly what they are trying to model. However, you have to combine the winrate graph with the frequency chart to figure out the best overall deck, which is shaman right now.

As for the above statement about playing the best deck against shaman. The answer to that question is freeze or aggro mage, but both are only about 55% against midrange shaman, and shaman is only 14% of the meta right now across all ranks. Even if you factor in that their winrate is being brought down by bad players playing a complicated deck, there's no way it's higher then 60-65% and they also have some really horrible matchups against relatively popular decks, so they still aren't a clear choice.

Until someone finds a new deck to really crush midrange shaman, or beat the rest of the field at a similar rate as them, it's still be the best deck to play for the moment.

littles said:

They should have just delayed it until the week before the next expac since it's such an obvious cash grab.

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Even better, they are delaying until right before the announcement. They said not this week, but before Blizzcon, which is when they are announcing. So anyone who doesn't pay as much attention will blow 1K or more before they realize the new expansion is coming.

Which maybe doesn't seem like many but between those who are blindsided and those who just can't help themselves, Blizz will siphon some gold/make some cash out of this thing. And siphoning gold is as good as making cash since lower gold hoards means people are more likely to spend some real coin on the new packs.

Deathwing said:

This thread is now worse than playing hearthstone.

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Both of these dudes will go 3-3 in heroic brawl at most, watch.

Blizzcon voting promo contest, one to ten free TGT packs.

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Hamster my new hero for bringing a priest. May the light bless him.

Remember when they nerfed Hunter right before Blizzcon out of embarrassment? I guess they should have nerfed a little harder? I suppose Thrall is as good an avatar for Blizzard as anyone though.

Go Thijs!