Hearthstone

mkopec

mkopec

<Gold Donor>
27,007
41,319
So Im still a noob at this and Im playing peeps in casual mode trying to get my dailies done, right? But fuck me some peopel have the best fucking luck. Twice yesterday I got burned by dudes that had no fucking cards left on the table, and yet they draw that perfect card each time.

Example, a mage I was playing with my mage. I have him down to like 4 HP, and i have 6 HP left. I have 2 beefy dudes left on the table. One of them being a taunt. Hes got nothing and nothing left in his hand. He spent his wad last turn to get me from 15hp down to 6HP So im thinking game over right? WRONG, the fucker draws a fire bolt or whatever the shit is called and one shots me.

Same thing with a warlock I was playing. I had his ass down to 1HP and the fucker pulls a 5 charge card and BAM Im dead.
 
T

The Master

Bronze Squire
2,084
2
Both of those seem pretty reasonable. If you know your deck is a burn deck, you try and get your opponent down as fast as possible. Preferably to the point where you know you have an out, i.e., a card you can draw that'll win the game for you. I do that all the time in close games. Sometimes I topdeck what I need, sometimes I don't. Part of the nature of card games.
 
mkopec

mkopec

<Gold Donor>
27,007
41,319
Yeah I get that, but why cant I be that lucky?
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A

an accordion_sl

shitlord
2,162
8
 
L

littles

Lord Nagafen Raider
509
93
0.5^10 = 0.0009765625 If you have played any gambling card game you know you just have to play the probability no matter how the play ends up coming out.
 
LiquidDeath

LiquidDeath

Magnus Deadlift the Fucktiger
5,140
12,456
Not too happy with this curve, too many 4 drops. I hope the Paladin hero ability will make up for the lack of early drops.

Also, Tirion over Harrison? I did it for late game and more consistency.

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Gavinmad

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
44,426
53,876
LiquidDeath_sl said:
Not too happy with this curve, too many 4 drops. I hope the Paladin hero ability will make up for the lack of early drops.

Also, Tirion over Harrison? I did it for late game and more consistency.
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Is that a serious question? You take Tirion over any other legendary in the game. Like, if I had to choose between Rag, Ysera, and Tirion, I'd still take Tirion. Tirion is probably the biggest bomb in all of arena.

Deck isn't terrible, but the lack of removal (1 hammer, 1 consecrate, no ts champ) is really going to trip you up. The bad cards I see on your list are booty bay bodyguard, master swordsmith, blessing of might, murloc raider, and southsea deckhand, but I guess that really depends on what you were picking against.

But I've managed to get 6-7 wins with zero TS champ before, so you might do ok. And I think your 4 drop count is fine.
 
LiquidDeath

LiquidDeath

Magnus Deadlift the Fucktiger
5,140
12,456
Goddammit. I'm 0-1 already because I had a Warrior at 11 health with a Stormwind Champion and 3 other small minions on the board against his one small. He plays a Mind Control Tech and steals the champ. G fucking G.
 
W

Weaponsfree_sl

shitlord
342
1
Gavinrad_sl said:
50%
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Unfortunately Gavinrad is correct.

Look up the gambler's fallacy if you do not understand this.

You could calculate "what are my odds of drawing a single card (that I want) out of a deck size of X." You can calculate your odds of getting it in a starting hand of given size Y, but the odds of drawing a single card from a fixed deck size remain the same every time.

You flip a coin 9 times. It's tails 9 times. You bet your life savings that the 10th will be heads. The odds are still 50%.
 
T

The Ancient_sl

shitlord
7,386
16
Weaponsfree_sl said:
Unfortunately Gavinrad is correct.

Look up the gambler's fallacy if you do not understand this.

You could calculate "what are my odds of drawing a single card (that I want) out of a deck size of X." You can calculate your odds of getting it in a starting hand of given size Y, but the odds of drawing a single card from a fixed deck size remain the same every time.

You flip a coin 9 times. It's tails 9 times. You bet your life savings that the 10th will be heads. The odds are still 50%.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately you are both wrong. I didn't ask what my chances of getting heads on my 10th flip was if I already got tails on 9 flips. I asked what my odds were of flipping a coin 10 times and getting 1 heads.
 
Gavinmad

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
44,426
53,876
Well, I'm just clowning around. The Ancient wasn't asking what the odds of the 10th flip being a specific result were, he was asking what the odds are for getting one specific combination out of 10 flips, which Littles posted was 0.5^10 = 0.0009765625
 
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