The reality is someone who had like 60k in 2018 wanting to one day be a homeowner, invested in SPX and saved a bit more, they're still in a position to own a home at some point here. Two issues are really that most of those people didn't save and didn't invest, and the younger Gen z and Gen alpha that didn't have the benefit of time are well and truly behind.
I am a bit scared about what will happen if rates do come back down, though. First fuck the realtors and their percentage bullshit, but also I just do not want to be in a perpetual sellers market either because I want to buy the house I want, not the one I can get. Normal balanced market is much more conducive to everyone getting what they want and can afford. The market here since COVID has been you get what you get and you still pay through the nose for it.
The fucked part is anywhere nice still has high demand from fuckwits moving in from the coasts. As you said, get what you can get, not what you want. This has been the way of things in the 3 different states I've lived in almost same number of years. Huge demand, interest rates be damned. Expensive houses going for 2-3x ask in some areas. I lost count of the number of houses where my bid wasn't even close, and they were fat bids. Nice houses are sold before lunch on listing day.
Building? Impossible now. here, 2 year wait, and good builders won't look at anything under $2MM. GF and I don't want a big house. 2500 SQft custom top to bottom. No one will even look at the plans. The other option for new are cheaply built houses on postage stamps. No thanks.
Renovating? DIY or fuck off. It wasn't that long ago that I had people lining up to work on the house where I used to live. Had many bids on exterior and interior paint, no end of choices for flooring companies, craftsmen to rebuild kitchen butler pantry. All done quickly and without flaw.
I walked into a flooring place a few years ago. 6+ women sitting at desks. Not a single person asked to help or if I wanted TO GIVE THEM MONEY. Same story at every flooring place I went to. The only option was trash like Lowe's. Nope! I wanted to build there. Same 2 year wait. I wanted new cabinets. Cabinet guy only built them. Paint? Hire a guy to do it. Install? Hire a guy to do it. Dispose of old cabinets? Hire a guy to do it. Worse yet? He couldn't give me any names of people to do it.
Here, there are flooring places, but 0 of them move furniture. No one available to move furniture at all. I hear a lot of "we don't do that". I wanted a new range hood installed and plumbed in. They'd sell me the hood, but had no names of people who would do the install.
The house I had redone? I left for 6 hours, and came back to new carpet, new flooring, and new cabinets. They moved all the furniture and put it back. Here, I can't even find a fucking plumber.
NO ONE WANTS MONEY. EVERYONE ARE NOW BILLIONAIRES AND DON'T NEED TO WORK.
Except the young couple who did the interior paint. Fucking excellent work and perfect price.
Ahh yes, let's talk about expansion. I moved to bumfuck nowhere. A year after I left, owner across the street sold all his acres, and now they are going to put 100 houses on it. I didn't plan on keeping this house, but I'd be pretty sore if I did.
My house out west was on the edge of town. Walk across the street into woods. Now it at the start of subdivisions, each with ever smaller lots. There was 4 miles of farm to the left of the road when I moved out there. It's all subdivisions now, each with tiny homes and tiny lots. Woman who bought my house says I wouldn't recognize the area now.
The problem with all this expansion everywhere? The roads can't support that much traffic. 100 extra cars on a tiny two lane road? Fuck that. Bumfuk nowhere but still traffic jams.
I need to build a time machine and zap myself to 1940.