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Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
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Blazin said:
I like +5k days View attachment 376057

I always nit pick each pullback in hindsight that I could have been more aggressive but overall I'm happy, put a lot of money to work. Up $11k for the month in my trading account and it's the 7th, will let some positions run and go back into hibernation until next time. I had such a strong start to the year with the tech pullback that I had hit my yearly goal around April, so I adjusted it, and as of today I just hit the adjusted YE goal. Doesn't mean I won't trade but will probably be pretty selective. I still think base case is we enter the 4600-4700 range this year at which point we enter a period of consolidation.

I had a good read of the move but I have $600k that is money for my house build and I'm just not comfortable being too aggressive with it when my need for the cash is so soon. Obviously everyone would say just borrow the money and during dips it gets tempting as that could have been a $50K profit month with more aggressive positioning but I learned a long time ago that debt is just not part of a life style that I'm interested in.


Recent Long Term Adds: (not short term Trades)
MTTR ($20.00 cost basis) To those who followed me in your probably seeing how crazy volatile it is, my plan is to ignore this. I want 100x minimum. Was up 25% and it's always tempting to sell but for me this is going to be a longer term hold. So if you are trading it just be ready for 10% moves up and down, if you really want short term then maybe putting a stop in if we get back to $22 is probably a good idea but I think more money will be made being patient but that could take years to play out.

MRK (71.50 cost basis) very happy with this one, I will likely be putting a stop in for the high 70s. While I want to be in the name I'd rather not give back the 10%+ move. Would just reenter if I were to stop out.

CLF ($19.50 cost basis)- Another crazy volatile name, my target is ~26 area. While It's not a trade per se, maybe a long swing. If I can make 30% on this I'll likely move on at some point.

CAH ($51 cost basis) - Was hit pretty hard in pullback having nice day today. I'm looking to add more on weakness. Would probably not add additional shares until 10% below this level.

I continue to hold SPY, AAPL, AMZN, VZ, WMT, IWM, DIS SBUX and ABBV
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R.89b02a42ffbd615f68debc2358d2069d
 
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Kirun

Kirun

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Blazin said:
AMZN, WMT
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I'd expect these two to do extremely well during the holidays. They're about the only ones with logistic trains massive enough to weather the shitshow that is going to be "peak" this year. Just about everyone else will likely see major shortages, delays, etc. And who will carriers give capacity priority to? You guessed it!
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Kirun said:
I'd expect these two to do extremely well during the holidays. They're about the only ones with logistic trains massive enough to weather the shitshow that is going to be "peak" this year. Just about everyone else will likely see major shortages, delays, etc. And who will carriers give capacity priority to? You guessed it!
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Yeah both are well positioned for next few years. So hard to not trade them sometimes. AMZN is actually my top name of the year as I have flipped it over and over, but with the last buy I decided not going to risk missing big move with it anymore. So I have missed one good flip so far (I buy 3200-3300 and sell 3500+) . And WMT i dont usually flip but it's been frustrating as it goes up to high 140s then just keeps dropping back to 136-140 area and it's very hard to not want to flip it for better returns. Flipping is nice an all but it has burned me enough times to learn to be careful. DIS made a run I was locked out of, flipping MSFT had me out at 260 when it went on to 300. When AMZN moves it moves big it then consolidates for long periods it has done this for 20 years now. So when the next move comes I probably will sell it and start the process of flipping again for awhile as it enters a new trading range. WMT is similar. I'm looking for $4500 on AMZN and $170 on WMT
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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LachiusTZ said:
Why those values specifically?
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Mostly Technical but not entirely. This is a ten year chart. Ive highlighted with boxes the consolidation periods separated by aggressive expansion periods. The red line shows a very long term trendline, now you'll notice that my expectation seems light in that you can see trend should put us at $5600 at 2023 YE.
Capture.JPG

The reason is just the law of large numbers, I think size of the expansion periods is going to begin to decline because of the sheer size these numbers represent. Historically I tend to underestimate just how aggressive things can get on the upside.

While there is still a lot of market for Amazon to expand to I expect the next 10yrs to be a maturing period that establishes a more modest growth trajectory. If inflation is high enough though we may stay on this course longer than many would have looked for otherwise.

On Fundamentals I expect revenue growth to moderate and drop below 20% YoY but EPS I think will continue to grow at near 30% YoY for several years. AMZN trades between 3 to 5x sales and during consolidation periods it trends towards the lower end of the range, we are currently at 3.7.

On WMT I believe the expansion period that kicked off in 2015 is going to continue, it needs to make this move relatively soon. Not the end of the world if it doesn't but would definitely hurt its momentum. The market is pricing in very low revenue growth that I believe they are going to beat due to their online sales. I do think the market should begin to reward WMT with valuations more appropriate to it's position. Similar to the DIS/NFLX story we have now seen play out. But margins will be key to this, WMT has to show that not only can it compete with AMZN it can do so with an improving margin. So for my trade and target to play out we need to EPS pushing near $7 and the market moving it's PE from ~20 ish to closer to 25.

Hope this answers your question.
 
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Zog

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Mist

Mist

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How is it different from Greyscale shares?

EDIT: Nm, it's tracking companies that are heavily into crypto, not the bitcoin value itself.
 
Borzak

Borzak

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Oil right at $80/barrel for WTI. Interested to see if there's a psychological effect. Guessing not since everything else has been upside down from normal. My speck of the oil world is now leased up 100%, so obviously total shutdown on drilling incoming.
 
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Zog

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1633698251427.png


Nobody knows how to think, someone should be coming on TV to tell everyone how to think shortly.

The narrative that lazy people that made more money on unemployment than working was the reason is falling apart.

Tell the population for 2 years covid is killing people in record numbers and the vaccine is killing people and doesn't protect you from covid and I am shocked that people don't want to go back to work after being a shut in and to fear other people for 2 years.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Shitty employment numbers means the Fed can take their sweet time on taper / rates.
 
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