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Blazin

Blazin

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Should clarify it depends if we are talking about the macro secular trend or cyclical cycles. (ie measured in decades vs months/years) My answer is for the secular trend, we will have numerous cyclical bulls/bears during the period with pullbacks ranging from 5-20%.
 
Zog

Zog

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Nobody can predict the markets.

Amazon missing earnings in every sector of its business besides AWS should have been a reality check but nobody gave a fuck.

Everyone assumes christmas will be record breaking profits and i just dont see it.

A crash wont happen without an actual catalyst, maybe real estate is that catalyst but I like everyone that is in cash expects a pullback. Tapering with telegraphed rate hikes is guaranteeing q4-q1 being the "top" at least for the next couple years unless the fed can't reverse qe or hike rates which is possible.

I want a pullback but i will concede i don't necessarily have to get one and probably won't get one until we see a shitty q4 earnings or something like a lehman brothers event with evergrande/zillow.

Saying all this ive convinced myself a pullback isnt coming and you guys are right :(
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Zog said:
Nobody can predict the markets.

Amazon missing earnings in every sector of its business besides AWS should have been a reality check but nobody gave a fuck.

Everyone assumes christmas will be record breaking profits and i just dont see it.

A crash wont happen without an actual catalyst, maybe real estate is that catalyst but I like everyone that is in cash expects a pullback. Tapering with telegraphed rate hikes is guaranteeing q4-q1 being the "top" at least for the next couple years unless the fed can't reverse qe or hike rates which is possible.

I want a pullback but i will concede i don't necessarily have to get one and probably won't get one until we see a shitty q4 earnings or something like a lehman brothers event with evergrande/zillow.

Saying all this ive convinced myself a pullback isnt coming and you guys are right :(
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You are being entirely too bearish for covid being over, the infrastructure bill being passed, and the upcoming Christmas rally (usually). If you are that sure everything is going to crash, find something that is breaking down technically and short it.

100% cash is too extreme.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Overall, I think we trend upwards, but you need to be selective. We are still under huge supply strain.

Amazon usually crushed Q4 for the holidays and they have even lowered their guidance citing labor and supply chain issues.

Just be cautious about what you are buying into. There was a massive breakout rally in IWM (small cap index) this week, where it has been stuck in a range for the last 6+ months. There is buying happening, but I see rotations under the surface.
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Jysin said:
Overall, I think we trend upwards, but you need to be selective. We are still under huge supply strain.

Amazon usually crushed Q4 for the holidays and they have even lowered their guidance citing labor and supply chain issues.

Just be cautious about what you are buying into. There was a massive breakout rally in IWM (small cap index) this week, where it has been stuck in a range for the last 6+ months. There is buying happening, but I see rotations under the surface.
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I actually bought some industrial exposure, assuming Tom Lee is right and the supply chain issues are worked out coming into Q1 of next year.
 
Mist

Mist

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I'm going to predict the markets keep going up all winter long, as the WFH class workers just funnel all their spare cash into the market for endorphin hits during the workday.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Zog said:
Nobody can predict the markets.

Amazon missing earnings in every sector of its business besides AWS should have been a reality check but nobody gave a fuck.

Everyone assumes christmas will be record breaking profits and i just dont see it.

A crash wont happen without an actual catalyst, maybe real estate is that catalyst but I like everyone that is in cash expects a pullback. Tapering with telegraphed rate hikes is guaranteeing q4-q1 being the "top" at least for the next couple years unless the fed can't reverse qe or hike rates which is possible.

I want a pullback but i will concede i don't necessarily have to get one and probably won't get one until we see a shitty q4 earnings or something like a lehman brothers event with evergrande/zillow.

Saying all this ive convinced myself a pullback isnt coming and you guys are right :(
Click to expand...
Markets are highly predictable. They go up and to the right over long run. Maybe you meant to say they aren't predictable in the short term. Your take on amazon is a typical logical trap that gets investors in trouble. It's more likely you don't understand something that the aggregate whole does not the other way around. This attitude is most prevalent for people who find themselves on the wrong side of a trend. They become angry at the market for not coinciding with their view, so the market must be dumb, clown market, etc. Rather than growing as an investor and trying to understand what you got wrong.
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Shonuff said:
I actually bought some industrial exposure, assuming Tom Lee is right and the supply chain issues are worked out coming into Q1 of next year.
Click to expand...
Supply chain issues worked out in the next 4 months? Howwwwww???
 
Blazin

Blazin

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FDec0KlXsAA97jN.jpg
 
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Shonuff

Shonuff

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Tmac said:
Supply chain issues worked out in the next 4 months? Howwwwww???
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Ask Tom Lee. I agree with his argument, business owners will figure it out and people have been coming back to work. At some point, we have to hit a bottom with supply chain issues.

Do you really think business owners won't have it figured out next year? Even if they have to automate more processes, they'll figure it out. The free market always wins.
 
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Shonuff

Shonuff

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Blazin said:
Markets are highly predictable. They go up and to the right over long run. Maybe you meant to say they aren't predictable in the short term. Your take on amazon is a typical logical trap that gets investors in trouble. It's more likely you don't understand something that the aggregate whole does not the other way around. This attitude is most prevalent for people who find themselves on the wrong side of a trend. They become angry at the market for not coinciding with their view, so the market must be dumb, clown market, etc. Rather than growing as an investor and trying to understand what you got wrong.
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/agree.

Like Tom Lee said, the ones that missed it over the last week will be pouring back in due to FOMO.

Why rant at the market, when you missed it? As one of my Professors said (who ran more than mutual fund), what keeps you up all night is when the market goes the other way. You have to figure out what you missed.

I had my long term holdings, but my trades were all on stocks that had already corrected. You have to watch those rolling stealth corrections. If the stock is already down 20%, you have to ask yourself, is it going to drop if the rest of the market drops. Seen too many times where the stock that has corrected goes up when the rest of the market goes down.

Getting angry is just going to lead you to the dark side. Moving to 100% cash was extreme.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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I liked the analysis that Blazin Blazin had/linked a few days back about the sell in May, buy in October outlook. My highly noobish take is that things are shaping up in that direction, barring any unforeseen big event to throw a wrench in the works.

The big one that I saw a bit back was China invading Taiwan. Coincidentally (or probably not) that was right about when I was looking at buying some NVDA or AMD but refrained due to all of the stories about that event that were in the news. Now, that could still happen, and since I'm more of a buy and hold type of person it might have been the right play if it does happen in the next 10 months or so... but holy shit does it look like I missed out on some tendies right now since both are up massively since then. Ah well.


My take on the likelihood of that event has changed too, I think it's far more likely China makes a deal with Taiwan thereby preserving most of the status quo in a move similar to their Hong Kong policy with the threat of invasion as the stick to hold over Taipei's head. This would impact the markets, but not nearly as much as them sending in their version of the Marines would. I don't see much in the way of big 'black swan' events in the near future other than that one.
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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Right now most of my non ETF stuff is in biotech and selling puts, and the supply chain issues don't concern me enough to pull cash out of SPY/QQQ/FTEC. And as others have said, the pandemic hysteria is running out of steam.
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Shonuff said:
Ask Tom Lee. I agree with his argument, business owners will figure it out and people have been coming back to work. At some point, we have to hit a bottom with supply chain issues.

Do you really think business owners won't have it figured out next year? Even if they have to automate more processes, they'll figure it out. The free market always wins.
Click to expand...

I mean, in my industry there is NO END IN SIGHT for commercial trucking shortages. So, yeah, it’s a pretty mind blowing take.

Business owners can’t solve problems without workers. This is still a major issue and no ones posted datums that show otherwise.
 
Zog

Zog

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I think Tom Lee is suffering from cathie wood syndrome from his energy play that would have been destroyed if OPEC raised production.

There is a million reasons why the market should not be going up but it is. Trying to have a logical argument about anything related to "post covid highs" is absurd, we passed pre covid levels in the end of 2020.

The stock market is being propped up by fed policy, everyone knows this.

1636226854838.png


This is fine. Lets take out some margin and really go deep.
 
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