Investing General Discussion

Picasso3 · Mar 22, 2020

Play with infection and mortality rates on a pool of 300 million fellas.

Saying they're shutting down the country because they're dumb or don't care is fucking dense... whether conscience or ego concerned no one wants to make (or not make) a call that kills an extra million people. Reality is here and it's difficult,
accept it.

Furry · Mar 22, 2020

This fight between the house and senate is really unexpected. The optics are gonna look fucking AWFUL for the dems if it drags out even a couple days, and the markets are going to hate it.

Borzak · Mar 23, 2020

Futures limited down.

Blazin · Mar 23, 2020

They recovered once trump finally said he won’t let this drag out.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 23, 2020

The Fed just said unlimited QE. SPY went from -7% to +4% in about 12 minutes.

The Fed has the monetary policy set. At this point its in Congress' hands to not fucking up the fiscal policy.

TJT · Mar 23, 2020

Yeah that is some serious mooning.

Blazin · Mar 23, 2020

crazy moves in the markets since last night. Futures were limit down so had to watch the ETFs, SPY was trading at $217s and we just hit $239 this morning.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 23, 2020

Macy's just suspended their dividend.

Furry · Mar 23, 2020

This free liquidity and massive repo operations are not the right way forward. The Fed's quest to destroy the economy is still very alive and worrisome. I'm willing to bet there are at least a few funds that should have gone under and stayed afloat with this. Soon they are gonna go under even harder. The fed is just setting up the waves to be bigger. They should be doing a controlled burn of bad actors.

I'm still eyeing 4 monday's from now as being my likely buy in, in line with my original prediction, but it could happen sooner. There's something really ugly brewing.

Ravishing · Mar 23, 2020

I was thinking an explosion of cases over the weekend, it didn't happen. Was eyeing 50k+ into Monday. We might see 40k once more results are out.

I'm leaning more optimistic now after Trump's last tweet. If after this week we're still well under 100K cases, I think the country opens back up and we start recovering.

If we see an explosion of cases then lockdown is extended and gets worse.

At the moment I'm optimistic, we'll see...

Gurgeh · Mar 23, 2020

Ravishing said:
I was thinking an explosion of cases over the weekend, it didn't happen. Was eyeing 50k+ into Monday. We might see 40k once more results are out.

I'm leaning more optimistic now after Trump's last tweet. If after this week we're still well under 100K cases, I think the country opens back up and we start recovering.

If we see an explosion of cases then lockdown is extended and gets worse.

At the moment I'm optimistic, we'll see...

Same in France, the number of death / day has been stable for now 5 days. France / Italy / Spain might already have reached to top of the belly. The verdict should be coming soon on Chloroquine as well, which combined with mass testing would result in a risk of anything happening in the autumn being nearly 0.

Bought some Japan / Korean ETF today, I believe they'll bounce faster than the west.

Blazin · Mar 23, 2020

Please try to keep thread on topic, investment discussion in the confines of response issues are okay but multiple posts that have nothing to do with investing and we have several other places for that to happen.

Furry · Mar 23, 2020

REITs are getting slaughtered by the market, which isn't surprising. As an investment fad, most are very over-valued and some are pretty much just scams. I forsee some getting liquidated and common stock holders getting exactly 0$ from their investment. This is a potential source of turmoil in the next two months for sure.

Where the real pain can be seen is the leveraged funds. A lot of leveraged funds are getting completely annihilated, which is one of the reasons we're seeing the volatility increase. There probably are some winners out there, but the plain fact is that there are a LOT more losers. Generally, I think this may be a worse source of market disruptions. This is the big boy money and they are going to want/expect bailouts like last time. Unlimited QE might relieve some pressure, but they really can't go all in. I forsee there being a bit of public anxiety at trillions of dollars getting thrown at that while common people lose their jobs.

ver_21 · Mar 23, 2020

Furry said:
REITs are getting slaughtered by the market, which isn't surprising. As an investment fad, most are very over-valued and some are pretty much just scams. I forsee some getting liquidated and common stock holders getting exactly 0$ from their investment. This is a potential source of turmoil in the next two months for sure.

Where the real pain can be seen is the leveraged funds. A lot of leveraged funds are getting completely annihilated, which is one of the reasons we're seeing the volatility increase. There probably are some winners out there, but the plain fact is that there are a LOT more losers. Generally, I think this may be a worse source of market disruptions. This is the big boy money and they are going to want/expect bailouts like last time. Unlimited QE might relieve some pressure, but they really can't go all in. I forsee there being a bit of public anxiety at trillions of dollars getting thrown at that while common people lose their jobs.

Any thoughts specifically about O?

Khane · Mar 23, 2020

Ravishing said:
I was thinking an explosion of cases over the weekend, it didn't happen. Was eyeing 50k+ into Monday. We might see 40k once more results are out.

I'm leaning more optimistic now after Trump's last tweet. If after this week we're still well under 100K cases, I think the country opens back up and we start recovering.

If we see an explosion of cases then lockdown is extended and gets worse.

At the moment I'm optimistic, we'll see...

Confirmed cases isn't the number to look at. It's how much PPE, testing capacity, and healthcare capacity we have that matters in when we can all get back to work which is in the works now. It should go without saying the timeline on being able to test and combat this virus changes economic recovery horizons and investment strategy.

Amod must be real bored right now.

Furry · Mar 23, 2020

ver_21 said:
Any thoughts specifically about O?

My opinion on REITs has always been no. I have a very poor perception of their business model in general, thus haven't researched them in any strong detail.

A quick perusal of the companies fundamentals atm make me believe they'll survive. They appear to be overvalued, and with perception of REITs likely to decrease in the near future, I don't think they will keep an overvalued price. If you like reits, I'd look for a buyin of about 25-30

Blazin · Mar 23, 2020

CONE is one of the few REITS I find interesting. They run data centers globally.

I could not be happier that I sold my office space properties last summer, commercial real estate could be in for some serious upheaval.

Gravel · Mar 23, 2020

Looks like we're back in 4% range again. Super.

Ravishing · Mar 23, 2020

Khane said:
Confirmed cases isn't the number to look at. It's how much PPE, testing capacity, and healthcare capacity we have that matters in when we can all get back to work which is in the works now. It should go without saying the timeline on being able to test and combat this virus changes economic recovery horizons and investment strategy.

Amod must be real bored right now.

I'm looking at new cases daily, was expecting new cases to be near doubling. Maybe they are and testing just isn't there. Hard to say.

And yes, investment strategy is completely tied to this pandemic right now. I think a lot of us wouldn't even be touching the markets right now if they were still at the all-time highs. I know I wasn't. The big question is where is the bottom.

DOW could hit 12K, 15K, or maybe 18K is the bottom (now).
Personally, I figured 15K would be the absolute bottom if it somehow does get there. Realistically, I think it doesn't get lower than 17K.

Furry · Mar 23, 2020

Ravishing said:
I'm looking at new cases daily, was expecting new cases to be near doubling. Maybe they are and testing just isn't there. Hard to say.

And yes, investment strategy is completely tied to this pandemic right now. I think a lot of us wouldn't even be touching the markets right now if they were still at the all-time highs. I know I wasn't. The big question is where is the bottom.

DOW could hit 12K, 15K, or maybe 18K is the bottom (now).
Personally, I figured 15K would be the absolute bottom if it somehow does get there. Realistically, I think it doesn't get lower than 17K.

I've mentioned before that I see a 5-8k bottom possibility, though I'll likely buy in by 12k. The disease definitely the largest cause for movements, though they are going to be made worse by the underlying condition of credit problems. This is worse in cities and with old people, and that is where more of the money is.

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