Investing General Discussion

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

A few of the leveraged div paying etn's are blowing up and liquidating. The preferred cef's are holding on by a thread and god knows there has to be a few more leveraged etn's about to die.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

Pops said:
A few of the leveraged div paying etn's are blowing up and liquidating. The preferred cef's are holding on by a thread and god knows there has to be a few more leveraged etn's about to die.

This is where the ferry man is paid his due by the leveraged funds of various sorts. Leverage is great... until it aint.

Blazin · Mar 22, 2020

Pops said:
A few of the leveraged div paying etn's are blowing up and liquidating. The preferred cef's are holding on by a thread and god knows there has to be a few more leveraged etn's about to die.

Time for all sorts of leveraged products to be put to rest. Figured people should have received that wake up call in Feb 18. Looking for more firms to implode will do a lot to help us put in a sustainable bottom. I just have no feel if it's a 12 month recovery or a 3 yr recovery, no reason to speculate wont change how I handle it

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

Blazin said:
Yeah QQQ has really held up a lot better than overall market so it's harder to pick support levels based on what S&P is doing. I see some messy support at $160 if that breaks then yes looking at low $140s. If QQQ gets there we will probably mean SPY will have broke $200 level. That is around the level I'll be all in, outside of choosing to borrow. Then the long sitting and waiting begins, I'm really looking forward to it becaues I haven't had a break from the market in a long time. Once I'm all in I won't even be looking at it which can be a welcome change after so much volatility.

I'm pretty comfortable where I am at. Except for a bit of XOM and M I had picked up prior to turn a quick trade (didn't work out very well), I was all cash. I started buying a 3 ETF mix as my core positions at about 15 to 18% down and added on in very small bites (QQQ, IVV and SPYG). In addition I added about 8-10 individual blue chips for long buy and hold once they hit the 20-25% down. AAPL, MSFT, LMT, UNH, WMT, JPM, DIS and ABBV. Nothing big in any of them (including their weight in the 3 ETFs).

At this point i am about 30% cash. I'm holding it as cash until we see the Dec 2018 low if it holds and then like you its time to push in the chips and wait.

I grabbed a little DAL and SB at the bottom hoping to turn a little profit but not intending to hodl.

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

The S and P maybe down 30%, thanks tech. Many others are at BK prices. Full blown credit crunch. Been buying WRK a box maker with a 7% yield, heh 10% Monday. Amazon needs boxes.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

With the State shutdown here in NY I hadn't had a chance until this evening to study what happened Friday. Based on what you posted I pulled up IVV (I had been focusing on QQQ). I didn't realize until just now IVV blew through the 2018 Xmas massacre. Fuck. Thats why you mentioned 200$. There is like nothing but air between it and 200-210. That's 2016 numbers. Fucking meow.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

Pops said:
The S and P maybe down 30%, thanks tech. Many others are at BK prices. Full blown credit crunch. Been buying WRK a box maker with a 7% yield, heh 10% Monday. Amazon needs boxes.

I would take all dividend yields with a grain of salt right now. It will be one of the first things to get whacked for lots of companies.

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

That OLN I mentioned, supplies CLX with bleach. Also owns Winchester, making bank. An 8% yielder. But my ass is very sore from any buys.

Blazin · Mar 22, 2020

Obviously hind site but it's hard to not think of how happy I'd be to have done everything at that QQQ $140 level but you end up missing out on a lot of smaller drops if you always do nothing but wait for the big one. I'm about the same as you on cash and that is about what I tend to reserve for real bad times. Last two times 01 and 08 I had a lot less capital to take advantage than I do now.

Hopefully more people will have learned their lesson about margin and leverage, then after a new bull run they'll slowly start to forget all over again. We certainly have not had life easy if we face 3 50% declines in a 20yr period, really unprecedented.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

Demo just went all in voting against the Stimulus bill in the procedural vote in the Senate. They truly give no fucks if the country burns as long as they think they can rule over the ashes. Time for the elevator ride to the basement tomorrow.

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

I also moved cash to my bank and move more. Grab a few worthless greenbacks too. I'm no gun nut, but things are getting real.

Blazin · Mar 22, 2020

Some fun sobering numbers, with tonight's decline the S&P has returned less than 2% annually (excluding divs) for the last 20 yrs.

Picasso3 · Mar 22, 2020

i'm revising my guidance on djia from 19k to 12k.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

I vividly remember 9/11 and 2007/2008. Over the last 48 hours is the first time (including those two) I have truly felt doubts about how bad this may really get. And I don't mean the virus.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

Blazin said:
Some fun sobering numbers, with tonight's decline the S&P has returned less than 2% annually (excluding divs) for the last 20 yrs.

Just incredible. I honestly think it has happened so fast that Joe 401k guy hasn't really grasped just how fucked we have gotten.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 22, 2020

I'm wondering if IVV might be a worse play than QQQ. I'm thinking the bottom half of IVV could be an anchor relative to QQQ. Maybe just go all in with QQQ instead of splitting between the two.

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I vividly remember 9/11 and 2007/2008. Over the last 48 hours is the first time (including those two) I have truly felt doubts about how bad this may really get. And I don't mean the virus.

It's depression time. How can any of us judge, a world wide shut down is unprecedented. This lockdown won't last. People will go back to work and fuck the dying.

Gravel · Mar 22, 2020

Pops said:
It's depression time. How can any of us judge, a world wide shut down is unprecedented. This lockdown won't last. People will go back to work and fuck the dying.

If it were up to the people to decide, you'd be right. Hopefully the morons in government realize how badly they fucked this up. Apparently they don't realize how fast you can destroy the economy by shutting everything down for a week.

Big Phoenix · Mar 22, 2020

Gravel said:
Apparently they don't realize how fast you can destroy the economy by shutting everything down for a week.

They dont care, they literally dont care. All their jobs are secure or they have nice .gov pensions to sail off into the sunset with.

I imagine Ill be out of a job by the end of April.

Pops · Mar 22, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I would take all dividend yields with a grain of salt right now. It will be one of the first things to get whacked for lots of companies.

I do. But with everyone buying online you need boxes to get it there.

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