Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I don't expect a huge rally in travel for a bit. At least not until the next earnings report. Look at the TSA counts. No one has stopped travelling. The numbers are pretty close to 2019 counts (TSA checkpoint travel numbers (current year versus prior year(s)/same weekday) | Transportation Security Administration). And if you listen to the CEO of AAL, the only reason why the travel numbers aren't higher is because they can't get staff. When I flew to a funeral last week, my flight was delayed by three hours because they didn't have a crew. I had to wait that long for them to rush a crew from another flight.
We are going on year three of the pandemic, people are tired of it. If you are vaxxed, you don't care, and the non vaxxers never cared. Until we start seeing people actually die from unicron, I'm not worried.
How many people have had unicron now? A million? How many deaths? 1. The market has had since Thanksgiving to discount unicron. It should do that in days, not weeks. I'd argue most of the downside is already accounted for. Since Thanksgiving, we've known unicron transmits 300% faster than delta, but we didn't know there would be no fatalities. In the worst county in South Africa, 90% of the cases they caught only knew they had unicron because they had to have their mandatory covid test before surgery. Its that benign.
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The mistake you keep making is thinking that the various governments and the media they control who are making and reinforcing all of these restrictions actually give a fuck about the facts.
They don't.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I warned you off the impending travel cliff what, 25% downside ago? First week of November in PMs? By all means if you want to accumulate as an investor, all the power to you. I’ve got better places to tie up capital.
For everyone’s safety, freedoms, and sanity I hope I’m wrong. The writing on the wall over the coming weeks has given me enough conviction to buy puts in certain travel names.
For everyone’s safety, freedoms, and sanity I hope I’m wrong. The writing on the wall over the coming weeks has given me enough conviction to buy puts in certain travel names.
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I had a chance to leave the trade, when news of the Merck pill dropped. I would have been in the green, but I elected to stay because the market has it wrong.
And I bought more since then (ABNB and BKNG), because the market is being irrational. The media can portray fear all it wants, one day the quarterly report is going to show how much people are traveling. There is no demand problem, there is a supply problem.
Pfizer pill is just around the corner. I'd be tempted to buy more, but I have to pay out two weeks' vacation and bonuses, and I'm getting ready to drop 15k on my vacation.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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If people like you would start ignoring it, maybe that'd happen. As it is, you start reacting to it and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Cut back on socialising, says Whitty, as he predicts surge of hospitalisations
Chief medical officer warns of ‘two epidemics on top of each other’ as UK records highest ever daily total of new caseswww.theguardian.com
"Worse to come" is the UK chief medical officer's words today.
You've got to be drinking some tasty kool-aid to think this isn't going to be hitting travel further in the coming weeks.
Just know you're part of the problem.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I’m part of the problem reading the tea leaves because I happen to know a bit about market psychology and media sensationalism? This isn’t rocket science.
But by all means hodl your 25%+ drawdowns because “the market got it wrong”. See how that strategy works out over a trading career.
Remember some basic math. You need 33% gain from today to break even that 25% loss. That’s provided there is no further downside.
But by all means hodl your 25%+ drawdowns because “the market got it wrong”. See how that strategy works out over a trading career.
Remember some basic math. You need 33% gain from today to break even that 25% loss. That’s provided there is no further downside.
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Sanrith Descartes
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At this point I need Elon Musk to tweet he is buying SPIR for the spare change he found in the ashtray of his Cybertruck.
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Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Some prefer to be on the opposite side when everyone is so bearish (or bullish). Nobody is sitting here clutching their pearls, wondering what to do next.
If travel plays go lower in January, I'll buy more.
Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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What does market psychology say when everyone is on one side of the ship? There are no more sellers, so it doesn't take much before it goes the other way. Everyone is so negative, that they have to turn positive. I made this same trade on DIS and BA during the pandemic, when everyone said they were going bankrupt. I bought DIS in the 90s and BA in the 160s (yeah, BA went up to 270 since then and has come back).
"Bullish or bearish, crowded trades are most dangerous when they reverse. Like a stampede of cattle, the cause isn’t always clear. It could be a real event like a dog barking, or the herd may simply reach a fence. But the move intensifies after it starts as more animals start running. Clouds of dust rise and the earth trembles. Then, as quickly as it struck, it fades into nothingness.
This is what happened in GameStop (GME) last month. Short interest in the video-game retailer was above 200 percent, meaning bears had bets against more than twice total outstanding float. No one was left to sell, so all it took were a few determined buyers to trigger a stampede."
GameStop's Real Lesson to Investors: Beware of Crowded Trades | Market Insights
GameStop’s short squeeze is one of the most discussed news stories this year. Whatever you think of it, one thing is clear for investors: It shows the risk of “crowded trades.” A “crowded trade” is a popular position or theme embraced by large numbers of investors. It can be to a single stock...
www.tradestation.com
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
This Site Sucks Hairy Asshole
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Buddy of mine picked it up long in the 90s awhile back iirc? That's all I got besides checking in on it from time to time.
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Edaw
Parody
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As Biden Threatens Sanctions, Putin Seeks Trade Alliance With China's Xi
"As the world's second-largest economy, China can definitely help Russia out in the event of U.S. sanctions," Far Eastern Federal University's Artyom Lukin said.
www.newsweek.com
Missed this earlier.
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ToeMissile
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
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As Biden Threatens Sanctions, Putin Seeks Trade Alliance With China's Xi
"As the world's second-largest economy, China can definitely help Russia out in the event of U.S. sanctions," Far Eastern Federal University's Artyom Lukin said.
Missed this earlier.
Two shitty manipulated currencies forming a 3rd. Yeah sounds great. Oh and they still have to buy/sell oil in Dollars.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
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