Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Tmac said:
Okay. I see what you mean.

Where's a good resources to see company's books? Is there a general resource or do you have to find their earnings report and then deep dive and try to find this info?

Yahoo finance / Finance tab will give you the company's balance sheet, income statement and cash flows.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
I mean most airlines are noticeably under their precorona price point;

View attachment 389270

Pre-Corona DAL had the strongest balance sheet. I havent looked lately.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Tmac said:
Do companies explicitly define debt or tie it into "cost of revenue"?

its on the balance sheet. It will be broken down in various was (long, short etc) or maybe just total debt.

DAL

Falstaff · Dec 22, 2021

Tmac said:
Your inputs are all fucky, so your outputs are all fucky.

Input: Covid is not real
Output: It doesn't need to be cured

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Tmac if you havent before, allocate some time to understanding the three main financial reports for companies. Its difficult to really understand what you are investing in without being able to read financial disclosures. There are obvious nuances (Manufacturers carry more debt than service companies) and also the fact that financial companies like banks are their own little animal in what they put on their disclosures.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Biden - "We are going to mail out 500 million home test kits."
ABT stock...

lift off space GIF by US National Archives

Tmac · Dec 22, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
I mean most airlines are noticeably under their precorona price point;

I'm referring to his equation not including totalitarian government's willingness to ignore data. If they didn't, ivermectin would've been pill enough to end COVID.

Tmac · Dec 22, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
its on the balance sheet. It will be broken down in various was (long, short etc) or maybe just total debt.

DAL
View attachment 389272

Yeah, I asked then found it in the balance sheet, thanks.

Jysin · Dec 22, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
I mean most airlines are noticeably under their precorona price point;

View attachment 389270

The problem I keep seeing repeatly with travel sector (airlines and cruiselines especially) is that people keep comparing pre corona stock prices to today's stock prices. The companies have fundamentally changed since then. Most have all taken on massive amounts of debt and/or also issued new shares (dillution).

On top of that, some fundamentals like business class seats being the big money maker have changed .. potentially forever. Sure, some will come back post-covid, but many businesses have figured out they can get a lot done remotely and dont need to fork out for every single business flight anymore. Some airlines are pivoting to more premium economy seats. But the bottom line is, things have changed and we don't know if that will make up for the business losses.

There are so many factors at play here. Directly comparing pre-corona stock price to today is really missing a lot of underlying information.

Sure, on a long enough time horizon, they can work out. My gut just says there is easier and more predictable money to be made elsewhere.

(I still take swing trades at extremes on these though. Bought JETS yesterday and sold half today for 7.5% gain. Depends on your trading style.)

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Here is what you NEED to understand if you want to own airlines (other than a quick flip) long term. As a service industry, they cannot recover that lost revenue. They cant put 2x the number of passengers on a plane for 3 years and magically get that lost revenue back. Due to Coronachan they took on insane amounts of debt to stay solvent. This is DAL. $33B in debt now.

EBITDA:

Free Cash Flow

Assuming they get back to pre-Coronachan cash flows of $3.5B (unlikely any time soon with fuel prices) they are at 10:1 debt to cash flows. If they spent every free dollar paying down debt its 10 years. PS.. Thye wont ever do this so it will continue to be a debt ridden zombie staggering along until they next black swan event occurs and they declare bankruptcy.

I can find 100 companies that are better investments than airlines. This is why you need to teach yourselves how to read financial statements as an investor.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Blazin What is you thought on MTTR movement the next week or two? I am pushing +50% on my Jan puts. Should I scalp the 50% profit because a retest of the low will come so I can write some new ones or should I ride these out for closer to 90% profits since you dont anticipate a retest?

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Whomever was underwater on their MA shares you should be getting close to green as the financials and fintechs are moving back north. MA just shy of $360

Tmac · Dec 22, 2021

Yup, finally green lol

Fogel · Dec 22, 2021

I think volume shelves are underrated for finding S/R levels

Sanrith Descartes said:
Blazin What is you thought on MTTR movement the next week or two? I am pushing +50% on my Jan puts. Should I scalp the 50% profit because a retest of the low will come so I can write some new ones or should I ride these out for closer to 90% profits since you dont anticipate a retest?

Its still in an uptrend so I'm going to hold for now

Borzak · Dec 22, 2021

Interesting video on airlines. Banks now and make the money on point partners.

Blazin · Dec 22, 2021

Tmac said:
Do companies explicitly define debt or tie it into "cost of revenue"?

Debt is not a cost of revenue the interest you pay on it could be defined as such, and yes companies report their liabilities on the balance sheet . You are now being assigned homework to brush up on accounting principles.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Added to MSFT at $318.50.

Will added again at $310 if we get a rug pull.

Always buy and add to quality and you will be rarely disappointed with the result. Alternatively you can buy travel stocks.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 22, 2021

TSLA +7%
Back over $1,000

Sanrith Descartes said:
TSLA back below the 50 DMA. the 100 DMA is another 15% drop from here. Fuck thats a long fall.

but damn those puts are expensive.

Fogel said:
You can't look at them as expensive, they still move based on %, so you buy based on how much $ you're willing to risk same as if you bought commons

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Dec 22, 2021

Wow my shitter RELI halted when I stepped out. Let's get to 7.58 so I can dump these bags on the greater fool!

(Yes I bought at the top was looking to pull off a SOPA but I pulled bags.)

Tmac · Dec 22, 2021

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
Wow my shitter RELI halted when I stepped out. Let's get to 7.58 so I can dump these bags on the greater fool!

(Yes I bought at the top was looking to pull off a SOPA but I pulled bags.)

Bro. Get out of options. For the love.

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