Investing General Discussion

Pops · Apr 1, 2020

Just hang in there Lach, as long as you are diversified. You will weather the storm. I second the idea of just don't look. It will likely get worse before it get's better.

Captain Suave · Apr 1, 2020

^

Anyone investing for retirement who was in the market up to now should just shut off the financial news and check back in 12-18 months.

Gravel · Apr 1, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Prolly won't. But it's not easy to watch it all burn. Esp when I fucking knew better and should have sold in Feb

That's hindsight. I mean, it could've been that China was blowing it all out of proportion and this was nothing.

No one could've anticipated the government shutting the entire country down.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

I go out on a limb now and suggest if you have a weak stomach I would not be watching the markets from about 3:30pm on.

Hateyou · Apr 1, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Prolly won't. But it's not easy to watch it all burn. Esp when I fucking knew better and should have sold in Feb

It doesn’t burn until you sell it. Hold the line!

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

Closed out both of my PUT positions (XLRE and SPYG) I opened on Monday. 37% profit between the two.

Kithani · Apr 1, 2020

Gravel said:
No one could've anticipated the government shutting the entire country down.

Well, except for the people in our government... who all dumped their stocks in February.

LachiusTZ · Apr 1, 2020

I thought the stocks in my play account would take a hit, just not to this extent.

Then the lack of good action, and abundance of bad action has made it rougher then expected.

Cut some losses on a high risk stock (sold 25% of it) and put it into something I'm more optimistic about over the next 18 months.

I'm the type that will complain, but keep my face planted on the belt sander. Bitching about it is just a pressure release.

Real estate agent is doing a walk through of my rental tomorrow. Going to give him 2 weeks too market it exclusively for sale before trying to replace the renters.

He is optimistic, but that's his job. If he can clear his estimate I'll be thrilled

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

Things to think about when looking at your portfolio or possible new purchases. The wording of the stimulus says any company who takes govt money has to suspend dividends and buybacks for a full year AFTER they pay back the money. Factor this in heavily. Strong balance sheet companies with cash on hand won't need to take govt money.

I have seen multi-billion dollar companies with less than 50m cash on hand and lots of debt who have been spending every spare dollar on stock buybacks. There are also companies with pristine balance sheets, tens of billion in cash and debt to EBITDA of 1 or less. There are some companies worth purchasing for the long haul. You just really need to dig into their financials to separate the shit from the stars.

Jysin · Apr 1, 2020

Gravel said:
No one could've anticipated the government shutting the entire country down.

Kithani said:
Well, except for the people in our government... who all dumped their stocks in February.

I'm not government and it didn't take rocket surgery to figure out a massive supply shock was coming when China was completely shut down. Didn't image it would get this bad, but here we are. Still trying to figure out a bottom..I don't think we are even close.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

Jysin said:
View attachment 258467

I'm not government and it didn't take rocket surgery to figure out a massive supply shock was coming when China was completely shut down. Didn't image it would get this bad, but here we are. Still trying to figure out a bottom..I don't think we are even close.

Did you learn that "rocket surgery" at SpaceX?

Pops · Apr 1, 2020

Jysin said:
View attachment 258467

I'm not government and it didn't take rocket surgery to figure out a massive supply shock was coming when China was completely shut down. Didn't image it would get this bad, but here we are. Still trying to figure out a bottom..I don't think we are even close.

I can't invest in a 1% return for 30 years. Even if rates are going to zero. You could have bought a tax free MM, paying 5% when the govt issued their backing, currently plummeting to 3.5%. You have to take some god damn risk.

Furry · Apr 1, 2020

Gravel said:
That's hindsight. I mean, it could've been that China was blowing it all out of proportion and this was nothing.

No one could've anticipated the government shutting the entire country down.

Furry said:
Pretty well established that the disease is worse for old people and they have a lot of the money. I expect a lot of panic'd selling in april and may. Hard to know when the right time to dive back in will be, but I'm glad I did the math and got out before everyone else. Prepare for a super ugly few months. If you're a long term investor you'll be fine, but this is gonna hurt short-term.

It was impossible to see coming.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

Hey

Blazin - so I checked my options level and its only 2 which means straddles only. I had never really looked at them so I did some studying. So if I understand it, buying both a call and a put on the same strike means I need some serious price movement to make any money (total cost of the options / strike).

In normal times I find it wouldnt seem to be a big money maker but in today's volatile world I guess there is some cash to be made using them. The upside i see to this is it does hedge risk but I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.

Am I reading this right and if so are straddles worth using? Currently I am mainly buying either individual short dated puts or long dated calls.

Big Phoenix · Apr 1, 2020

He actually banned for is it some dumb April 1st thing?

Furry · Apr 1, 2020

Big Phoenix said:
He actually banned for is it some dumb April 1st thing?

Most of us are on FOH 5.0.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 1, 2020

I figure the April fools thing will be over at midnight and he will get around to answering when he is unbanned.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 2, 2020

Interesting article looking at the leverage situation going on.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Furry · Apr 2, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Interesting article looking at the leverage situation going on.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

While I'm sure some people have made huge money with leverage, there has been a lot more people that have lost a LOT of money. Leverage can make you a lot of money, but volatility can quickly be very, very bad for it. The repo actions drying up were in part a response to this. Banks were seeing massive risk and didn't want to get saddled with piles of bad debt. The fed should have never stepped in to keep schemes like this going, as they do nothing positive for the economy.

This is really the main reason the euro economy is so fuckered atm. With 0% and negative interest rates, very little of it is going toward developing or supporting their own country. All that money is being borrowed for leveraged investment schemes in other countries because the government has decided to make it free to steal their country's money. These things unraveling in real time is the main reason forex has been absolutely insane as of late.

Blazin · Apr 2, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Hey Blazin - so I checked my options level and its only 2 which means straddles only. I had never really looked at them so I did some studying. So if I understand it, buying both a call and a put on the same strike means I need some serious price movement to make any money (total cost of the options / strike).

In normal times I find it wouldnt seem to be a big money maker but in today's volatile world I guess there is some cash to be made using them. The upside i see to this is it does hedge risk but I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.

Am I reading this right and if so are straddles worth using? Currently I am mainly buying either individual short dated puts or long dated calls.

You have to remember that options are priced for the current volatility level. So a straddle will still have trouble making money unless volatility exceeds the expected level at the time you enter the trade. We are at a 60 vix so obviously we are going to have volatility in the next week but if that volatility declines during the hold period then the straddle will likely just eat your paid premiums. I know some people like to put on a straddle when they can see that the market is squeezing into a tight range and will break a direction, they then exit the side of the trade that is wrong. This obviously requires not being fooled by head fakes.

It is not a trade that I would currently be interested in.

Weekly jobless claims just came in 6.65M

Investing General Discussion

Avatar of War Slayer

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.

Mr. Poopybutthole

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Not Great, Not Terrible

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Blackwing Lair Raider

Rogue Deathwalker Box

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Ahn'Qiraj Raider

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Avatar of War Slayer

🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer

🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭

Creative Title